If we take the metaphor of three times as short, medium and long term, we can more systematically analyze the likely developments of the coming period. In politics, clarifying the foreseeable is vital for managing other unexpected risks. In order not to fall into the position of a deliberate wishful thinking, it is necessary to put time-based scenarios on the table in order to be able to correctly guide the processes that are unfolding.
First of all, in the short term, perhaps within a few days, the tension over the group meeting could be the breaking point of the movie. 38. If Özgür Özel, who was dismissed with precaution on the grounds of irregularities at the congress, and the MPs who acted with him insist on holding a group meeting, both the legal and political dimensions of this should be carefully considered. Politically, the likely expectation may be to accelerate the expulsion process and increase the social legitimacy of forming a separate party based on victimization. Legally, it is out of the question to treat the party group as an interlocutor separate from the legal entity of the headquarters. It is the Presidency of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey that should act on this issue with the consistency and seriousness required by law, not with political motives. It is not possible for any party to hold group meetings and other activities despite the chairman and independent of the headquarters. The formation of the group management, the use of group facilities and all kinds of meetings are shaped by the interlocutor of the chairman and the will of the decision-making bodies of the headquarters.
While the appearance of a two-headed CHP may seem to benefit the Justice and Development Party politically, it may have the opposite consequences as it will weaken the public's trust in politics and expectations for democracy. Just like in the nullity case, an attitude should be developed based not on the political risks and rewards of the issue, but on the rules based on concrete legislation. The parliamentary bylaws and the law on political parties are clear on this issue, leaving no room for polemics.
The second major area of tension that may emerge in the coming months, which we can call the medium term, is the possibility of criminal trials and parliamentary immunities being put on the agenda. In this process, it will be decisive for President Kılıçdaroğlu and the central leadership to act in a consistent manner that does not contradict their own claims. An approach should be developed that is sensitive and sensitive to ethical issues, especially corruption, but that does not exclude any party member because of his or her opposition. Probably, the road map for the formation of a separate party will take shape in this medium term and turn into a concrete timetable. Steps can be taken to lay the groundwork for a new party before the pamphlets come to the general assembly and the criminal cases progress further.
It is an important responsibility for the Kılıçdaroğlu administration to defend Özgür Özel and other deputies, even if they have left the party, in the legal process. An approach that must be distinguished is not to defend unacceptable and illegitimate acts, but to defend the requirements of the law. The same sensitivity should be displayed decisively in the cases related to municipalities, especially IBB. As soon as the mandatory conditions for pre-trial detention are removed, or for those who must be removed, it is important that the pre-trial detention process is not prolonged any further. In the public conscience, the reasonable limits of intra-party power struggles are clear. In no way should the intensity of the intra-party rivalry take precedence over social problems and the priority agenda. The first step in building public trust in politics is what politicians are busy with. Personal seat fights are one of the most important reasons for the public's alienation from politics.
Electoral strategies will form the main basis for planning for the long term. The issue of local elections is extremely important for both the CHP and the DEM Party today. It is quite possible for both parties to draw up a political road map that will lead the People's Alliance in operating democratic mechanisms. The high number of municipalities that have appointed trustees, changed parties, and are governed by proxy due to arrests may create a responsibility to make an active move in changing the local election calendar, which requires a qualified majority. For the People's Alliance to avoid such an election would have political consequences.
Since a temporary constitutional provision is needed to change the date of local elections, the CHP and DEM could lead the discussion on a constitutional package based on a strong consensus covering urgent issues. As regards general elections, discussions based on the calendar are nothing more than symbolic and have no serious meaning. If the election date is set in February 2028 at the latest and the elections take place within the following 60 days, there will be no debate on Erdoğan's candidacy, as there will be legal consequences that would legally mean the renewal of the elections. An approach that would make Erdoğan's candidacy more difficult would mean the opposition accepting that it has lost the election in advance. Erdoğan's last election will also coincide with a critical period for foreign policy, security and other issues that need to be addressed above party interests and personal calculations. In this period, it is in the interest of the country and the parties to focus democratic competition and political struggle on the economy and the social sphere. In a two-round electoral system, social alliances focused on the 50+1 target are more meaningful and fruitful than the increase in party votes. The vast silent majority beyond the fanatical masses of the parties is the real subject that can change the outcome in terms of voter behavior. It is also clear that politics targeting this audience will be shaped not by narrow polemics, but by producing alternative solutions on fundamental policies.
The crises and manipulations that representative democracy has been experiencing for a long time in many places, including Europe, compel Turkey to change its method of doing politics. The actors of a politics based on demand and advocacy rather than representation will of course differ. Instead of the hegemony of representation, which sees itself as the authority to speak on behalf of social segments, new methods of politics focused on more direct social participation may mark this transition period. Instead of the old identity politics, digital organizing platforms and local initiatives may open channels of politics that transcend parties. With a domino effect, the purification and weeding out may compel all political parties to take steps in this direction in the coming period. The parties and cadres that lead the way will also pave the way for political transformation and change. Managing a critical and precious concept such as change, without treating it superficially as a change of seats or badges and emblems, will leave its mark on the future of Turkey.