In the Presidential System of Government, it is not the “first party” that is decisive, but the will that finds 50+1; the perception built by the polls is doomed to dissipate at the ballot box.
With the transition to the Presidential Government System, the nature of politics in Turkey has radically changed. Any analysis without reading this change correctly is doomed to be incomplete.
The fear of being below the threshold in the old system has been eliminated with the Alliance system and the stream has somehow found a channel. With this motive, the groups that were called dissimilar and impossible to get along with can walk arm in arm.
Artık mesele yalnızca “hangi parti birinci oldu?” sorusu değildir. Hatta daha ileri gidelim: Bir partinin seçimde en fazla oyu almasının, hatta Türkiye Büyük Millet Meclisi’nde salt çoğunluğu elde etmesinin bile tek başına belirleyici bir anlamı kalmamıştır. Çünkü sistemin kilidi Cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimidir ve o kilidin anahtarı da nettir: %50+1.
While this fact is obvious, it is a serious mental illusion that the public opinion is still confined to the “first party” debates. It is also noteworthy that some polling companies are consciously feeding this illusion. It is not a coincidence that the same surveys do not present a holistic picture of the presidential election while insistently emphasizing the first place of a certain party.
This situation puts society in front of a “magic mirror”. Those who look in the mirror see themselves as bigger than they are and want to believe in this image. However, politics is shaped according to arithmetic, not desire.
Bugün muhalefetin elindeki en somut veri, geçmiş Cumhurbaşkanlığı seçiminde alınan yaklaşık %48’lik oydur. Bu oran küçümsenebilir mi? Elbette hayır. Aksine, doğru okunduğunda ciddi bir potansiyeli işaret eder. Ancak aynı kesimlerin, daha düşük oranlı güncel başarıları abartırken, bu %48’i değersizleştirmesi ciddi bir çelişkidir.
Daha çarpıcı olan ise şudur: %50+1’i bulabilmek için ortada yaklaşık 12 puanlık bir açık bulunmaktadır. Bu da milyonlarca yeni seçmenin ikna edilmesi anlamına gelir. Peki bu oy nereden gelecektir? Hangi seçmen kitlesi, hangi söylemle kazanılacaktır? Bu soruların ikna edici cevapları henüz ortada yoktur.
Moreover, politics is not only mathematics but also sociology. Alliances, grassroots reflexes, candidate preferences and political language directly affect voter behavior. Today, whether voters from different parties will gravitate towards the same candidate is not as simple as it is assumed. Especially the candidate debates and intra- and inter-party tensions make this process even more complicated.
Nevertheless, optimism is being pumped up as if these difficulties do not exist. This is where the “magic mirror” comes in. A mirror that distorts reality, renders shortcomings invisible and encourages expectations to be mistaken for reality...
But the chest breaks this mirror every time.
When election night comes, results speak, not perceptions. And the famous phrase echoes: “There is someone better than you.”
Politics is not the art of self-deception. On the contrary, it is the courage to face reality. A skyscraper cannot rise from crooked iron, and if it does, it will collapse at the first tremor. For a solid structure, we need the right ground, the right calculation and the right accounting.
It must be remembered that no matter how long the night, the morning will surely dawn. Truth may be delayed, but it is not lost.
The short day does not darken.
In short, it will not last until the Day of Judgment.