Mathematics does not lie to those who know how to read. The results of every election are the strongest mirror reflecting voter psychology and at the same time the most reliable data. The validity of the polls conducted by polling companies that cannot read the voter psyche in this context is open to debate.
2023 General and Presidential elections and 2024 Local Elections should be read and evaluated together and I share my conclusions with you in the light of these analyzes.
I believe that any analysis that ignores the results of the general elections, which reflect the parties' own base votes, and analyzes them according to the results that suit them, aims to mislead the public.
Namely; as can be seen from the table
In the 2023 General Elections, the People's Alliance (AKP, MHP, YRP, BBP and HUDA-PAR) achieved 50.03 percent.
It is clear that Mr. Erdoğan, the candidate of the People's Alliance in the CB election, did not make an extra personal contribution in this regard. Because the right-wing base continues to support him unconditionally on this issue without any loss.
Since the right is more demographically numerous than the left, it wins with a population advantage.
(We will discuss the two percentage points higher CB vote of 52.21 percent a little later).
On the other hand, CHP, IYI and SAADET parties as the Millet Alliance and the other opposition bloc DEM and TİP and ZAFER Party received 47.8 percent of the total votes.
The math does not lie. Every party seems to have done its duty in this regard on the opposition front. In short and especially, the situation is not as some monarchist leftists and the dagger team, who are masters of creating duality, say.
There is an important plus point worth examining here
IYI, SAADET and ZAFER, which make up the opposition bloc, are right-wing votes. The CHP's core vote is in the 25-26 band and despite its demographic disadvantage, Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu has reversed this situation and gathered votes for himself. This is a great achievement, but for some reason a certain segment does not want to see it!
Let's talk about the Presidential elections,
What is the reason and motive for the 52.21 votes of the winning candidate Mr. Erdoğan! What explains the 87 percent turnout in the first round but 84 percent in the second round?
How should we interpret the similarity between the increase in the percentage of votes not cast in the second round and the increase in the percentage of the winning candidate?
The answer is very simple and clear.
We personally observed this in the field. Many so-called leftist people did not vote in the second round and did not compromise on their conformist yasanrodon, but the grassroots of the People's Alliance, some hoping for good deeds, some for other reasons, abandoned their harman and continued to vote.
The reason for the loss of the election is actually this two and a half percent of the votes and this percentage among the absentee ballots. In other words, it was the left that lost the election. It is the leftists themselves. .
The cliques within the party that ruined all of Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu's efforts. The daggersmen!
The success shown in this election will surely be reflected in the 2024 Local Elections. No one can extinguish a rising fire.
As a matter of fact, this success is a result of Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu's plans, otherwise it is not a gain that can be achieved with a five-month presidency and of course a local election victory.
It is also necessary to read these election results correctly.
In the 2023 general elections, it is seen that the AKP maintained its base vote while the MHP lost five points. However, this five point decline does not contribute to the opposite neighborhood. Because the results show that in the local elections of 2024, there is a significant increase in the percentage of unused votes, because it is almost impossible for the MHP base to vote for the left. It is also necessary to see this reality.
In the 2024 local elections, it is obvious that the potential IYI vote is 10 percent, but the Party's vote in the 2024 local elections was around 4 points. So did these six points go into space?
In the 2023 General Elections, the DEM blog vote was 11 points, but in the 2024 Local Elections it dropped to 6 points. So did these five points also go into space?
Now let's talk about possible early or timely general and presidential elections...
The 2024 local elections have shown that voter behavior is not fixed. The same electorate may show different reflexes in different types of elections. Therefore, it would be misleading to read the local election results as a direct projection of the general elections.
The tendency of DEM voters to act strategically and the tendency of İYİ Party voters to vote reactively or not to go to the polls will be one of the most decisive elements of the upcoming elections.
For the People's Alliance, the most critical issue is to be able to re-mobilize its own voters who do not go to the polls; for the opposition, it is to be able to consolidate the scattered voter behavior.
The math tells us this clearly:
It is not only vote switching that wins or loses elections, but also the proportion of voters who do not go to the polls. Therefore, the key factor that will determine the fate of the upcoming elections will be the change in the turnout rate rather than the transfer of votes between voters.