There is no denying that there has been an increase in procedurally questionable practices against Republican People's Party mayors. However, this does not automatically grant immunity to those against whom allegations have been made or who are alleged to have committed crimes. Accepting these two facts at the same time is essential for a sound political analysis.
In our previous article titled “CHP's Strategic Dilemma”, we drew attention to the party's strategic moves that were faulty in terms of timing and ground rather than specific events. Unfortunately, in the intervening period, we see that these mistakes have become the norm rather than the exception.
The psychological advantage gained after the local election victory is one of the rare opportunities in politics. However, the CHP has been reluctant to turn this advantage into a strong call for early elections. However, the moral superiority of being the first party only gains meaning with timely and decisive moves.
Similarly, it is noteworthy that the “call for resignation” discourse, which was frequently used in the past, was not used this time for rival actors. Politics is not only about standing up for what is right, but also the art of applying pressure with the right timing.
More importantly, placing Mr. Ekrem İmamoğlu at the center of the discussions so early, when the election atmosphere has not yet formed and the nomination discussions on the rival front have not become clear, has raised a serious strategic question mark. It seems to have been forgotten that early cards in politics often lead to weakness, not advantage.
“In the strategy presented to the public with the ”double striker" discourse, the reality on the ground is different. While one of the strikers has been neutralized through legal and political processes, it remains to be explained why the other has not been actively engaged.
This raises a critical question:
Is the aim of all these moves really to field a candidate and win, or is a process being built that indirectly strengthens the grounds for the current government to run again?
The picture on the ground makes it imperative to ask this question.
The fact that the opposition is generating resentment within itself while the rival bloc is expanding its alliance grounds is one of the main factors determining the balance in a possible presidential election. In a system where the executive power rather than the parliamentary majority is decisive, it is clear where the strategic priority should lie.
It is also evident that there is no strong “belief in winning” within the party and in the public opinion. Even if this is not expressed out loud, the fact that a new congress is being discussed at the end of the process is an indicator in itself.
On the other hand, at a time when international developments are intensifying and regional crises have a direct impact on domestic politics, the timing of harsh statements such as “Sine-i Millet” should also be discussed. The fact that this discourse, which was not voiced yesterday when it had the psychological upper hand, is now being brought to the agenda in a hurry, harbors a serious contradiction in terms of strategic coherence.
Even more striking are the targets that are disconnected from reality. The announcement of rates such as 60 percent, which is contrary to the nature of politics, points to the politics of wishful thinking rather than rational analysis. The question of how the opposition will realize this target is unanswered when it is clear that it is unable to reach these percentages despite the available media and power opportunities.
Rather than being a chain of disconnected mistakes, all these developments give the impression of being parts of a single-centered fiction.
The systematic sidelining of some of the names that have a resonance in the field and the circulation of new and weaker alternatives naturally leads to discussions on “clearing the way”.
However, it should not be forgotten:
In politics, what is cleaned as a thorn is sometimes a rose.
And if those roses are swept away one by one, there may be a plane tree with nothing left but its shadow.
The ancestors did not say it in vain:
“May God keep you on the path of the corrupt.”