Those who play billiards know: The player hits the ball with the cue, the target is clear, but the outcome is not always planned. The ball goes, hits another ball by chance and scores. It's called “carom.” In other words, a result in which skill and coincidence are intertwined, and often luck plays a part...
There are similar situations in politics. Plans, programs, and strategies are explained, but the outcome often depends on the direction of the wind, the harshness of the conjuncture and the psychology of the electorate at that moment. This is precisely where “carom politics” comes into play: The area where the difference between manufactured success and achieved success is blurred...
In the election, which was entered with a five-month presidential performance, the votes obtained through the accumulation of the previous period (approximately success in the 2023 presidential election) were used as a kind of ready credit. This loan was like interest on the old accumulation, not a new production. Despite a 10-point erosion in the intervening period, the picture that emerged is still presented as a ’success“.
But there is a simple question to be asked here:
What has really been won?
To be first or to get stronger?
To win the election or to convince the voters?
Because politics is not just a matter of ranking; sustainable power is measured by social consent and the capacity to garner votes from the opposing bloc. Especially in a system like the presidential system where the +1 threshold is decisive, it is not enough to consolidate one's own neighborhood. Any structure that fails to get votes from the opposing bloc, no matter how high it may seem, has actually hit its ceiling.
Polling companies have become one of the most active actors in this murky ground. A mechanism that directs rather than measures, that generates expectations rather than analyzes... But they know this too: The real data is the voters' decision at the ballot box. But as the distance between data and perception widens, polls cease to be a measurement tool and become an element of psychological warfare.
The psychological advantage after the local elections is another topic. What we call momentum in politics is rarely captured and quickly lost if not managed well. This advantage should have been consolidated through policy-making, inclusive discourse and an expansion strategy. But it seems that this opportunity could not be turned into a lasting advantage.
At this point, we are experiencing a process in which external developments (economic, diplomatic and geopolitical issues) are opening up space in favor of the government. It is precisely in such a conjuncture that discussions of “by-elections” or early elections are back on the agenda, which deserves to be questioned in terms of political wisdom.
Is this confidence or haste?
This is where the strange psychology of the gambler who plays to lose comes into play: The more you lose, the more you play, the bigger the risk, the more you risk... Because sometimes it's not about winning, it's about staying at the table. And sometimes it is about delaying an impending loss.
There is another possibility:
Stuckness
Politics is shaped not only by the electorate but also by internal party balances, alliance relations and leadership debates. In such periods, early moves often send a message not to the opponent but to the inside. It is read as a way of saying “I am in control”.
But every move has a cost.
And every wrong timing can undo even the best strategy.
This is where what we call charam politic begins:
Winning with a carom is mistaken for strategy...
The substitution of luck for skill...
Temporary superiority mistaken for permanent power.
And then the inevitable end:
Shampoo
Because politics is a game of continuity, not of coincidence.
And continuity is possible not only by winning, but by being able to keep winning.
I got it.
And you understood.
Let those who understand explain to those who don't.