The world is once again on the line of tension. The Iran-Israel war is not just a regional crisis; it has become a breaking point that directly affects the global economy. We see the fastest and harshest reflection in fuel prices.
Oil markets don't like uncertainty. War means risk. The higher the risk, the higher the prices. A significant part of the high figures we see at the pump today are the result of this geopolitical tension.
And what happens when the war is over?
History shows us this: When major crises end, a pullback in energy prices is inevitable. Supply concerns subside, the market stabilizes and prices tend to normalize.
When this tension between Iran and Israel ends, fuel prices around the world are expected to fall, and most likely they will.
But this is where the real problem starts for us.
As prices fall around the world, will there be a decline at the same pace in Turkey?
We have seen this many times in the past, especially during the AKP governments: When global prices rise sharply, they are immediately reflected at the pump, but declines are not felt at the same speed and rate.
Since the beginning of the war, fuel prices have been increasing in gradual shocks. With hikes almost every 3-4 days, there has been a significant increase in liter prices in a short period of time. The total effect of these increases was reflected as a double-digit (10 TL and above) cost burden at the pump within a few weeks.
As a final word, let's say this: We have experience...
It is not the price of oil that falls the fastest, it is the hope of the citizens.