Recent developments in the Middle East have once again made visible the deep contradiction between Israel's military capacity and its perception of security. The war that started with the US and Israel's attacks on Iran and Iran's unexpected response should be carefully evaluated not only in terms of military balances but also in terms of the psychological security perception of Israeli society.
Israel is often described as a powerful, technologically superior state, capable of defeating its threats. This is largely true. At the same time, however, there is a critical fact that is often overlooked: Israel, despite being a powerful state, is a state that never feels safe. It should be noted that social psychology feeds on this situation and also feeds the psychology of the state.
This is not accidental. The founding identity of the State of Israel is built on historical traumas, the experience of exile and especially the collective memory of the Holocaust. Therefore, security is not only a military issue for Israel; it is an existential imperative. Threat perception is not a temporary phenomenon; it is a permanent element of political culture.
The perception of security in Israeli society is multi-layered. The threat does not only come from a specific state or organization; it is constantly reproduced at different levels. While actors such as Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas constitute the visible face of this perception, deeper down there are historical and identity elements that make Israel feel encircled and vulnerable.
This structure has become even more visible as Iranian missile attacks have begun to damage Israel's air defenses. Irrespective of their military impact, the most important consequence of the missile strikes is that they reinforce the feeling in Israeli society that “nowhere is completely safe”. The targeting of strategic and symbolic targets such as the Dimona Nuclear Power Plant is not only a physical threat, but also a psychological challenge to the core of Israel's security doctrine.
The picture that emerges at this point is not a weakness, but a paradox. As Israel's military power increases, the perception of threat does not disappear; on the contrary, it becomes more sophisticated and more pervasive. This is because security is not only about physical capacity, but also about perception, memory and identity. Israel's policies, which are seen as aggressive, are largely shaped on this psycho-political ground.
This structure is not limited to Israel's internal dynamics. Its strategic alliance with the United States also deeply affects this security perception. Although the US-Israel relationship is often described as an indispensable alliance, there are strong assessments that this relationship does not always coincide with US interests. Nevertheless, this relationship produces a two-way effect for Israel: on the one hand, it provides reassurance; on the other hand, it does not eliminate security concerns.
Iran's geopolitical rapprochement with actors such as Russia and China and its increasing capacity to directly challenge Israel have further deepened this psychological structure. Iran's resistance, despite acting in concert with the United States, reinforces the sense in Israeli society that absolute security is not possible.
This geopolitical picture also has important implications for Turkey. The regional impact of US-Israeli relations indirectly shapes Turkey-Israel relations. However, Turkey and Israel have fundamentally different security approaches. While Israel builds its security through military superiority and pre-emptive strikes, Turkey seeks to create security through a broader regional balance and multilateral relations.
Attacks on Iran and the escalation of regional tensions pose serious risks for Turkey in terms of energy security, border stability and geopolitical balance. Turkey has to maintain its relations with the US as a NATO member while avoiding the direct effects of a regional conflict.
In conclusion, evaluating Israel solely on the basis of its military capacity is not enough to understand the behavior of this state. What is decisive is the coexistence of a strong military structure and a deep sense of insecurity. Israel's power is fueled not only by its military capacity but also by its fears.
The biggest risk for Turkey in this new era is to be forced to choose a side; the biggest opportunity is to be one of the few actors that can strike a balance.