If we look at the history of the last 500 years, the collapse of great empires is often associated with the loss of critical trade routes. For example, the Ottoman Empire's loss of control over the Mediterranean Sea and the Soviet Union's dependence on energy infrastructure in Central Asia weakened the economic and military influence of empires. Similarly, today, the loss of US control over the Strait of Hormuz could have serious consequences for global hegemony.
Hürmüz Boğazı, dünya petrol ticaretinin yaklaşık %20’sinin geçtiği bir geçit olup, küresel enerji pazarları için kritik öneme sahiptir. Ancak, yalnızca enerji ile ilgili değil, bölgedeki deniz yolları ve stratejik denetimler de, küresel güçlerin hakimiyet mücadelesinde büyük rol oynar. ABD, bu geçidi kontrol ederek hem Orta Doğu’daki askeri etkisini pekiştirmiş hem de dünya enerji piyasalarındaki denetimini sürdürmüştür. Fakat bu kontrolün kaybedilmesi, küresel hegemonyanın sona ermesi için bir kırılma noktası olabilir.
The Suez Crisis of 1956 is an important example of the impact of such a loss on empires. Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser's decision to nationalize the Suez Canal provoked a strong reaction from the superpowers of the time. Britain and France intervened militarily in Egypt to protect their control of the Suez Canal. However, the intervention of the United States and the Soviet Union broke the military and diplomatic superiority of the West and led to the withdrawal of Britain and France. This was a turning point when the United States consolidated its hold on global hegemony and Western Europe began to lose its former power.
The Suez Crisis was in fact a turning point in world history because it demonstrated that great powers could engage in regional wars in pursuit of their own interests, but also that the geopolitical balance of power at the global level could change rapidly. The intervention of the United States and the Soviet Union completely transformed the geopolitical dimension of the war and severely weakened the influence of the United Kingdom and France in the Middle East.
The Strait of Hormuz, like Suez, is the backbone of global trade. Approximately 17 million barrels of oil pass through this strait every day. Thanks to its military presence in the Middle East, the US has maintained control over the Strait of Hormuz, guaranteeing the security of its energy resources. If the US loses its control over the Strait of Hormuz, it could upset not only regional security but also world energy prices and the trade system.
However, US influence in the Middle East is weakening with each passing year. China's rising influence, Russia's growing military and political power in the region, and the establishment of a new balance of power in the Middle East threaten the US strategic superiority. Losing the Strait of Hormuz could weaken the US military presence in the region, while increasing the influence of China and Russia in the region.
Historically, the loss of trade routes has weakened the economic and military power of empires. As in the case of the Suez Crisis of 1956, interventions by global powers can affect the balance of hegemony worldwide, beyond regional controls. On the one hand, the Suez Crisis caused Western Europe to lose its former power, and on the other, it accelerated the United States’ steps towards global hegemony. Today, the loss of the Strait of Hormuz could threaten US global leadership.
The loss of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a major shift in world trade. If this waterway falls out of US influence, new routes for energy supplies, particularly from China and Russia, could shift the balance of power. This could profoundly affect global energy markets and reshape economic relations between countries.
US hegemony is shaped not only by military superiority but also by its financial power. The continued use of the dollar as the main currency of global trade is a factor that reinforces US economic power. However, such losses in energy markets could undermine confidence in the dollar and lead to the emergence of new global economic power centers with alternative energy routes.
As a result, the loss of the Strait of Hormuz could threaten economic, military and diplomatic control not only in the Middle East, but worldwide. The Suez Crisis provides an example of the effects of a regional loss on global hegemony. The loss of US control over the Strait of Hormuz could weaken its influence in the Middle East, while at the same time seriously undermining its global hegemony. Today, this loss could signal not only a regional collapse, but a major transformation process in which global powers will be reshaped.