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- The Silent Truth Behind the Ballot Box!
Polls are useless…
- The Silent Truth Behind the Ballot Box!
I would like to begin with a quote from my article titled “Mathematics Doesn’t Lie,” which I wrote on April 28, 2026. The latest local municipal election results, as of yesterday, have once again confirmed the validity of the observations we made that day. The CHP has lost a significant portion of the municipalities it held. Some may view this as a “minor shift in votes”; however, the truth is that:
“A fly is small, but it’s a nuisance.”
Ultimately, this was the destination of the political course that Mr. Özel would have taken. In this context, I believe that the restoration of Mr. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s rights and the ruling of absolute nullity mark a significant turning point not only for Turkish justice but also for Turkish democracy. As the pieces fall into place, it will become clear that the true winner is not individuals or cliques, but democratic virtue.
At some point, it will no longer matter who wins or loses. Because Turkish democratic culture will eventually find its own course; hopefully, a more mature understanding of politics—free from divisiveness, othering, and political animosity—will prevail.
I believe that Mr. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is the only person capable of carrying out this mission and vision. We have complete confidence that he will succeed. And in my view, he will go down in history as one of the most important political figures to have contributed to the maturation of Turkey’s democratic culture.
At a time when certain self-proclaimed experts—who don’t know the first thing about the subject—are pretending to be food connoisseurs, it is no longer merely necessary but practically a duty to revisit the relevant section of the article I wrote on April 28, 2026. After all, we warned, spoke out, and drew attention to the issue back then.
We said:
“It is not just shifts in voter support that determine whether an election is won or lost, but the percentage of voters who do not turn out to vote.”
Mathematics truly does not lie. Every election result is both the most accurate reflection of voter psychology and the most reliable data. For this reason, the validity of surveys conducted by polling firms that cannot read the mind of the voter is also debatable.
The 2023 general and presidential elections and the 2024 local elections must be analyzed together. This is because voter behavior is not one-dimensional. Analyses that focus solely on the results that suit the parties’ interests mislead the public.
In the 2023 General Elections, while the People’s Alliance maintained a total vote share in the 50% range, the opposition bloc remained in the 47–48% range. The math speaks for itself here: The opposition’s loss is not, as claimed, merely a matter of candidate selection. The real issue lies in voters who did not go to the polls and a culture of internal sabotage within the party.
It is no coincidence that voter turnout dropped, particularly in the second round of the presidential election. The reality we observed firsthand on the ground is this: A certain segment that identifies itself as “opposition” has not stepped out of its comfort zone; in contrast, the People’s Alliance voter base has maintained its motivation to go to the polls.
Therefore, the key factor determining the outcome of elections is voter mobilization rather than shifts in voter preferences.
The 2024 local elections also demonstrated the same reality. A significant portion of the voters for the İYİ Party and DEM reacted differently; some did not turn out to vote. This situation clearly shows that interpreting the results of local elections as a projection for general elections is a serious analytical error.
At this point, we can see that:
* DEM voters are acting strategically.
* Good Party voters are reacting impulsively.
* Voters of the People's Alliance, on the other hand, demonstrate a high degree of loyalty.
For this reason, the key factor that will determine the outcome of the upcoming elections will not be the shift in votes between parties, but rather voter turnout.
Mathematics still tells us the same thing:
“It is not just shifts in voter support that determine whether an election is won or lost, but the percentage of voters who do not turn out to vote.”
Praise be to God; we were not mistaken in either our choices or our analyses. We will continue to take a stand in favor of what we believe to be right—a stance that is straightforward, honest, and principled.
Let there be no doubt whatsoever.
Numan CENGIZ
June 8, 2026