Subconscious Reflex
The secret of winning elections in Turkey lies not in the ballot box, but in the minds of the voters.
And the first question asked in that mind is:
“Not ”Who would I vote for?“ but ”Who would I never vote for?"
This reflex is the most powerful determinant of Turkish politics.
Negative Vote Reality
Most voters in Turkey make their choices not out of love, but out of reaction.
When you vote for a candidate, it is not because you say, “I like this very much”,
“He goes to the polls because he says ”I will never give to the other".
For a while, opposition to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was the main motivation of the opposition.
In another period, the manipulation created by the ruling party against Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu turned into the biggest advantage of the government with the help of internal party turmoil and foot games.
A significant portion of the votes cast at the ballot box are not “support” votes, but “obstruction” votes.
The Least Repulsive One Wins
The basic formula that has worked so far in Turkey is this:
The least repulsive wins, not the most loved.
The ideal candidate for the voter:
- Does not generate fights
- No crisis
- Does not create uncertainty
- Does not give fear
Whoever has these qualities can win elections even if he is not charismatic. The most successful leader in this regard is undoubtedly Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu. Because it is not easy for a leftist candidate to get votes from the right where taboos are very strong. And if a radical leftist gets so many votes from the right, his hand should be kissed, so to speak. Let no one write this off as an ordinary case.
This is different from the votes of Mansur Yavaş or Ekrem İmamoğlu. Cumku, these two people have roots on the right, it is natural for them to get votes from the right. But Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu's success is really admirable in this context and is indeed a peak in the history of the CHP.
“The Culture of ”Not Voting"
The common political language in society is: “I won't vote for them.”
“Never vote for that one.”
“They're all bad, but this is worse.”
This is not the language of hope; it is the language of avoidance.
The voter most of the time:
They vote not to get better, but to avoid getting worse.
Reassuring Exceptions
In some periods, there have been names that have been able to overcome this negative barrier.
For example, Ekrem İmamoğlu was able to partially break this perception.
Mansur Yavaş's landslide local election victory in 2024 is a case in point.
Because:
They did not create a perception of threat, they did not use the language of harsh polarization,
They did not frighten large sections of society...
In order to win politically in Turkey, one must first “not scare”.
The Chronic Dilemma of the Opposition
The opposition usually produces criticism, but not confidence.
As soon as this perception is established in society, the election is lost:
“If they come, the country will be in chaos.”
No structure that cannot break this perception can come to power.
The Silent Strategy of Power
This is the path that governments often follow:
Make the opponent look like a risk!
Push your own mistakes into the background
“Send a message of ”after me, uncertainty"
This strategy can work even in times of economic crisis.
Because the biggest fear for voters is uncertainty.
The Real Secret
For a movement that wants to be in power in Turkey, the road map is clear:
First you have to get off the “no vote” list
Then you will reassure
You'll be the last to offer hope
Most parties get stuck at the initial stage.
Conclusion: The Mind Wins, Not the Ballot Box
Elections in Turkey seem to be won at the ballot box.
In reality, it is won in the minds.
And the first filter of that mind is: “Will this hurt me?”
Whoever can answer “No” to this question opens the path to power.