The biggest problem with economic debates in Turkey is misreading reality. People still see price increases as “hikes”. However, there are some prices that are no longer increases, is the threshold. The price of gasoline at 63 TL and diesel at 74 TL is exactly such a threshold.
These figures are not a cost increase.
These figures are a is an indicator of transformation.
Because fuel is not a consumption product in the classical sense. It is not an item that can be postponed like a telephone or given up like a piece of clothing. Fuel is the circulatory system of the modern economy. For a product to gain value, it must move. The product in the field is not economic until it gets on a truck. Production in the factory does not enter the market until it is distributed. Nothing that does not reach the market shelf has economic meaning.
So the price of fuel is not just a cost, is the reference for the entire economy.
But the point is not even here.
The real issue is how these prices are perceived by society.
The most critical break in Turkey in recent years is not economic, but mental. From an environment where 20 TL was considered a shock and 30 TL was seen as a crisis, we have come to a point where 63 TL is considered “normal”. This is something much deeper than a price increase.
This one, is normalization.
And this is the most economically dangerous process.
Because when a society gets used to prices, there are three critical changes:
First, the ability to compare is lost. People do not compare the past with the present. The increase is perceived as a continuity, not as a shock. The question “What was it before?” disappears.
Second, the reflex to react is weakened. The raise is no longer the exception, it becomes part of the system. People do not object because it is expected.
Third, and most importantly, the standard of living falls quietly. People do not start to consume less, but to settle for lower quality. They buy the same product but worse. They think they are living the same life, but in fact they are living a narrower life.
This is where economics ceases to be a technical field,
becomes a sociological construct.
This is exactly what is happening in Turkey today.
63 TL gasoline does not only create cost pressure. It also generates a psychological reference. When people see gasoline, they think:
“Everything will increase.”
And this thought is self-validating.
This is because pricing behavior in Turkey is no longer cost-oriented, but expectation-oriented. Producers set prices not according to today's costs, but according to tomorrow's costs. Tradesmen do not wait for the exchange rate increase, they increase prices in advance. The distributor updates prices before the cost is reflected.
This goes beyond the classical definition of inflation.
This one, is expectations-based inflation.
And at this point a very harsh reality emerges:
Inflation in Turkey is no longer a measured data,
is a form of social behavior.
Therefore, knowledge of economics is not enough to understand 63 TL.
You need to understand society.
Because it's not about what the price is,
is how fast you get used to that price.
And perhaps the harshest sentence should be uttered here:
People in Turkey no longer ask why prices are rising.
He just wonders how much it will increase.
This is not a crisis.
This means that the crisis accepted version.
PRICE STARTING OUTSIDE: IRAN-ISRAEL TENSIONS, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND THE HIDDEN MECHANISM OF BRENT OIL
If you want to understand the price of fuel in a country, it is not enough to look at the economic policies of that country. In an energy-dependent country like Turkey, the source of the price is not internal, outside.
So I don't go to Ankara to understand 63 TL,
You have to look at the Middle East.
And at the center of that map are two things:
Iran-Israel tensions
Strait of Hormuz
1. IRAN-ISRAEL: ENERGY TENSION, NOT MILITARY TENSION
The conflict between Iran and Israel is often misread. It is only seen as a military tension between the two countries. However, the real impact of this conflict is economic, not military.
Because Iran:
- One of the world's major oil producers
- It is also one of the key points of global energy flows
So it is not just a question of “who attacked whom”.
The real issue is this:
Will this tension threaten the flow of oil?
Even the moment this question is asked, the price changes.
Because in the modern energy market it is not reality,
probabilities are priced in.
STRAIT OF HORMUZ 2: THE BOTTLENECK OF THE WORLD ECONOMY
The Strait of Hormuz is no ordinary geographical passage.
This is the point where about of the world's oil passes through.
What does that mean?
A fifth of the world economy depends on a single bottleneck.
That's why, Hormuz:
- Not strategic
- Not critical
Direct is the slaughter point.
A crisis here would have the following consequences:
- Tanker transit becomes risky
- Insurance costs increase
- Transportation prices jump
But most importantly:
Even if oil is not cut, the price will rise.
Because the market thinks that:
“What if it's cut?”
And even this possibility generates prices.
3. BRENT OIL: NOT A COMMODITY BUT A GEOPOLITICAL THERMOMETER
For most people, the Brent oil price looks like just a number.
Yet this number is a snapshot of global tensions.
When the price of oil goes up, it is not just a matter of supply and demand.
This means that risk is priced in.
Let's set clear thresholds:
- 80-90 dollars → controlled tension
- 100 dollars → psychological threshold
- 110-120 dollars → crisis pricing
- 130 and above → systemic shock
These levels do not only affect the energy market,
affects the entire world economy.
Because oil:
- Production input
- Fuel for transportation
- The foundation of industry
4. PRICES BUY THE FUTURE, NOT REALITY
The biggest misconception in economics is this:
Prices are assumed to be based on the current situation.
But the reality is quite the opposite:
Prices are based on future risk.
Even if Iran-Israel tensions do not create a physical disruption today,
the possibility of creating tomorrow increases the price today.
That's why the oil market:
- Not rational
- But it is not irrational
Expectation-based.
5. WHY IS TURKEY MORE AFFECTED IN THIS SYSTEM?
Now we come to the critical point.
Why is the same oil increase felt harder in Turkey?
Because Turkey:
- Energy importer
- Purchases in foreign currency
- High currency sensitivity
So for Turkey, the process is two-stage:
- Oil increases
- Cost multiplies due to exchange rate effect
Hence the increase in oil in Turkey:
- Slow is not felt
- Creates a direct multiplier effect
6. THE TRUE MEANING OF 63 TL
Now let's go back to the beginning.
Gasoline is 63 TL.
This is the price:
- Does not occur in Turkey
- In Turkey it only becomes visible
This price includes:
- Iran-Israel tensions
- Hormuz risk
- Brent oil expectations
- Global energy flows
I mean, you, actually:
Not the Turkish economy,
you're paying for the global energy system.
In Turkey, people discuss prices inside.
But the reality is this:
The price is born outside,
In Turkey, there are only labels.
EXCHANGE RATE REALITY: TURKEY WILL NOT EXPERIENCE OIL SHOCK, WILL BE CRUSHED BY A DOUBLE BLOW
So far we have set up outside:
Iran-Israel tensions, Strait of Hormuz, Brent oil...
But this is not what makes Turkey different.
The main difference is this:
Turkey will not experience the oil surge alone.
At the same time with a currency shock.
That is why price growth in Turkey is not slow.
It jumps.
1. WHAT HAPPENS IN A NORMAL ECONOMY?
Let's say the price of oil increases by .
In a developed economy, the impact is limited:
- Energy costs increase
- But since the exchange rate is stable, there will not be a second blow.
- The system partially absorbs this increase
So the price goes up but controlled increases.
2. HOW DOES THE SAME SHOCK GROW IN TURKEY?
At the same time, a second process begins in Turkey:
The exchange rate is suppressed.
When oil goes up:
- Energy bill rises
- Current account deficit increases
- Demand for foreign currency rises
- Exchange rate goes up
And this is where the critical break occurs:
The same cost increases a second time.
I mean:
- Oil cost increases
- Increases again with exchange rate hike
That is why the price system in Turkey is not flat,
layered.
3. THIS IS NOT AN ECONOMY BUT A MULTIPLIER MECHANISM
Let's keep it simple:
- Oil increased by
- Exchange rate increased by
Would the total effect be ?
No, no, no.
Because the costs overlap each other.
Conclusion:
Not close to , most of the time higher total impact
Hence the price increase in Turkey:
- Non-linear
- Grow exponentially
4. $63 AND $74 ARE THE RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM
Today:
- Gasoline 63 TL
- Diesel 74 TL
These prices are not just the result of oil.
These are:
- Oil price
- Exchange rate level
- Tax burden
is a combination of the triad.
But which of the three is the most aggressive?
Kur Because:
- Oil fluctuates
- But the exchange rate moves directionally
And what moves in a direction drags the system.
5. THE MOST CRITICAL BREAK: INCOME AND FINANCES IN SEPARATE WORLDS
Now we come to the hardest part.
Turkey:
- Income TL
- Cost dollars
This means the following:
You win locally,
pay globally.
What happens in this system?
- The higher the exchange rate, the higher the price
- But salary does not increase at the same pace
Conclusion:
Continuous, slow and unnoticed impoverishment
This impoverishment does not shout.
- You don't just collapse
- But every month you lose a little more
And the most dangerous:
You think this is “normal life”.
6. THE HARSHEST TRUTH
The mechanism is now clear:
Price in Turkey:
- What determines only oil
- What only determines the tax
What determines the price:
is a combination of oil + exchange rate
And this combination comes from outside.
In Turkey, people discuss prices inside.
But the truth is this:
In Turkey, the price system is not established internally.
It is created outside, felt inside.
SLIDING SCALE: DOES NOT LOWER PRICES, DELAYS REALITY
One of the most commonly used concepts when discussing fuel prices in Turkey is “sliding scale”. However, what this concept is is usually either misrepresented or deliberately softened.
The general narrative is this:
“The state steps in, lowers taxes, protects citizens.”
This narrative is not incomplete, it is false.
Because sliding scale is not a system that lowers prices.
It is a system that changes the appearance of the price.
1. MECHANISM: HOW DOES IT WORK?
The logic is simple:
- Oil increases
- Exchange rate increases
- Normally the price rises rapidly
But what does the state do?
- Reduces SCT
- Does not reflect part of the increase at the pump
Conclusion:
The price appears to have increased less.
But the critical question here is this:
What about the increased cost?
It did not disappear.
FACT 2: COST DOES NOT DISAPPEAR, IT SHIFTS
This is the most critical point of sliding scale.
Cost:
- Indelible
- Indestructible
It's just that:
- Spreads over time
- Transferred to another channel
So you think you are paying less at the pump today.
But in fact:
- The state gives up that difference
- Budget deficit occurs
- This gap is closed in other ways
How?
- Borrowing
- Monetary expansion
- Indirect tax increase
Conclusion:
The difference you don't pay will come back to you.
3. HIDDEN LOOP: THE SYSTEM FEEDS ITSELF
The sliding scale will provide relief in the short term.
But in the medium term it produces this cycle:
Costs rise → taxes fall → budget deteriorates → exchange rate rises → costs rise again
This cycle is critical.
Because here we see this:
Sliding scale does not solve the problem.
It produces a feedback that magnifies the problem.
4. WHY IS IT UNSUSTAINABLE?
The sliding scale has a limit.
The tax cannot be reduced forever.
At some point:
- SCT approaches zero
- The state cannot bear the loss of revenue
- The system cannot withstand
And at that point:
The suppressed cost suddenly appears.
This is the reason for the occasional “sudden hikes” in Turkey.
These hikes are actually not new.
It is an overdue increase.
5. THE MOST DANGEROUS SIDE: PERCEPTION MANAGEMENT
Sliding scale is not only an economic instrument.
It is also a psychological tool.
Because people see this:
“The price hasn't gone up that much.”
But what they do not see is this:
- Cost increases
- The system is regressing
- Risk is accumulating
So the truth is not hidden,
is delayed.
This reduces the reaction.
And when the reaction diminishes, the system is not questioned.
6. BACKGROUND OF TL 63 AND TL 74
Today:
- Gasoline 63 TL
- Diesel 74 TL
These prices are not just a market result.
These are:
- Cost of oil
- Exchange rate impact
- Tax adjustments
- Interventions similar to sliding scale
is the result of a combination.
So the price you see:
It is not the real price that the economy produces,
is a managed equilibrium.
Equilibrium mobile:
- Does not lower the price
- It does not remove the truth
It only changes time.
The cost you didn't pay today,
tomorrow it will come back harder.
CONCLUSION: NOT A CRISIS, BUT A SCHEME OF DEPENDENCY
We have now set the table from top to bottom:
- Gasoline 63 TL
- Diesel 74 TL
- Iran-Israel tensions
- Strait of Hormuz risk
- Brent oil pressure
- Exchange rate shock
- Sliding scale intervention
- Increased cost of production
Now, when you put these pieces together, what emerges is not a simple “economic crisis”.
This is something deeper.
This is a structural dependency order.
1. IN THIS SYSTEM THE PRICE IS NOT SET, IT IS FORMED
Classical economics tells you this:
“Prices are set internally.”
But in Turkey the situation is different.
Price in Turkey:
- Starts in Hormuz
- Shaped by Brent oil
- Grows with the exchange rate
- Adjusted by tax
- Visible at the pump
So price is not a decision,
is the result of a chain.
No link in this chain is fully under Turkey's control.
2. ENERGY DEPENDENCE: THE FOUNDATION OF THE SYSTEM
Turkey's biggest vulnerability is this:
It imports energy.
What does that mean?
- Cannot set the price
- Only pays
When oil goes up, there is no choice.
Either you pay,
either economic activity contracts.
So energy dependence is not just an economic issue,
is a strategic weakness.
RULE 3: THE BIGGEST MULTIPLIER INSIDE
The oil increase alone is heavy enough.
But the real break in Turkey is the exchange rate.
Because:
- Energy is bought with dollars
- Sold in TL
This means the following:
When the exchange rate increases, not only the cost increases,
the whole system is repriced.
That's why he is in Turkey:
- Oil shock → cost increase
- Exchange rate shock → cost multiplication
4. THRESHOLD MOBILITY: AN EFFORT TO KEEP ORDER AFLOAT
This is where sliding scale comes into play.
But now we know clearly:
- This is not a solution
- Not a balancing
This one:
It is a way of buying time to keep the system afloat.
But this method is not permanent.
Because:
- Taxes cannot be reduced infinitely
- The budget cannot run infinite deficits
- The exchange rate cannot be infinitely suppressed
So at some point the system has to accept reality.
5. PRODUCTION CRISIS: THE MOST INVISIBLE BUT MOST DANGEROUS CONSEQUENCE
The most severe consequence of this price structure is in production.
If diesel is 74 TL:
- Agriculture is costly
- Industry is expensive
- Logistics becomes difficult
And this produces the following result:
The economy cannot grow, it just spins.
This is critical.
Many sectors are not growing in Turkey today,
just trying to survive.
And that in the long run produces this:
- Low efficiency
- Low competition
- Persistent inflation
6. THE MOST DANGEROUS POINT: NORMALIZATION
But there is something more critical than all this:
Social threshold.
When a society gets used to these prices:
- Raise is not questioned
- The system is non-negotiable
- Adaptation begins
And at this point the crisis:
becomes sustainable.
This is when the system is at its strongest.
7. FINAL DIAGNOSIS
Let's be clear:
What happened in Turkey:
- It is not a temporary fluctuation
- It is not a simple economic crisis
This one:
An energy-dependent, currency-sensitive economy with limited production
is its position in the global energy order.
In Turkey, people still say:
“Gasoline is expensive.”
But the truth is this:
You don't pay 63 TL for gasoline.
Global energy system, geopolitical tensions, currency vulnerability
and you pay for deferred costs.
And more naked:
It is not a question of price.
This is a system issue.