There is a rumor that has been circulating in recent days: Azerbaijan may declare war on Iran. In my opinion, this possibility is quite weak, even unrealistic.
Politics does not tolerate romance; states are driven not by emotions but by calculations of interests. Ilham Aliyev is a leader who realizes this. Going directly to war with a big country like Iran would be a big gamble for Azerbaijan.
Yes, Baku has strong military and technological ties with Israel. But in international relations, no alliance means unlimited guarantees. It is one thing to have diplomatic support behind a country, it is quite another to be directly involved in a war.
Moreover, Azerbaijan has already made a very important strategic gain in recent years: It has regained control over Karabakh. Another issue now on the agenda is the Zangezur Corridor. Risking a major war with Iran at such a sensitive time could jeopardize all the gains made.
There is also the Moscow dimension. Vladimir Putin is already carrying a heavy geopolitical burden because of the war in Ukraine. In such a situation, opening a new front in the Caucasus would be something that Russia would not want. Therefore, Moscow is unlikely to play an active role in this scenario.
In short, there is a lot of noise and rumors in the Caucasus. But real politics often follows the path of cold reason, not rumors.
And that wisdom tells us today:
It is much more likely that Azerbaijan will not go to war with Iran, but will try to manage the balance without going to the brink of war.