Ermenistan, G\u00fcney Kafkasya\u2019n\u0131n jeopolitik kaderini belirleyecek tarihi bir se\u00e7imin e\u015fi\u011finde.. Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc, yani 7 Haziran 2026\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,5 milyon Ermenistan vatanda\u015f\u0131 sand\u0131k ba\u015f\u0131na gidecek. Fakat bu pazar kurulacak sand\u0131klar, alelade bir parlamento aritmeti\u011fi belirlemenin \u00e7ok \u00f6tesinde bir anlama sahip. Erivan\u2019da verilecek oylar; G\u00fcney Kafkasya\u2019n\u0131n, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ve Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n da i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu koca bir co\u011frafyan\u0131n jeopolitik kaderini oylayacak.<\/p>\n
2018\u2019deki Kadife Devrim\u2019le ad\u0131ndan s\u00f6z ettiren Nikol Pa\u015finyan i\u00e7in bu pazar, sekiz y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00f6netiminin en \u00e7etin, en b\u0131\u00e7ak s\u0131rt\u0131 s\u0131nav\u0131. 2020\u2019deki \u0130kinci Karaba\u011f Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ac\u0131 hat\u0131ralar\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl 2023\u2019te ya\u015fanan o b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131r\u0131lma ve nihayetinde Azerbaycan ile y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen sanc\u0131l\u0131 normalle\u015fme s\u00fcreci… Pa\u015finyan, halk\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na t\u00fcm bu travmatik ama radikal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn bir nevi “hesapla\u015fmas\u0131” ile \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Peki kamuoyu ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 ne f\u0131s\u0131ld\u0131yor, meydanlarda hangi semboller yar\u0131\u015f\u0131yor? Daha da \u00f6nemlisi, sand\u0131ktan \u00e7\u0131kacak tablo T\u00fcrkiye ve Azerbaycan a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ne ifade ediyor?<\/p>\n
Pa\u015finyan \u00d6nde Ama Prangal\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n Son d\u00fczl\u00fckte yay\u0131mlanan IRI ve EVN Report anketlerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, Ba\u015fbakan Nikol Pa\u015finyan\u2019\u0131n liderli\u011findeki Sivil S\u00f6zle\u015fme Partisi<\/strong> %30-32 band\u0131nda seyrederek yar\u0131\u015f\u0131 ilk s\u0131rada g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Karaba\u011f\u2019\u0131n kayb\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 derin toplumsal travmaya, kilise destekli \u00e7alkant\u0131lara ve muhalefetin sert tonuna ra\u011fmen Pa\u015finyan h\u00e2l\u00e2 bu deste\u011fi koruyabiliyorsa, bunun tek bir sebebi var: Ermeni se\u00e7meninin “eski rejim” korkusu. Muhalefet bloklar\u0131ndaki tan\u0131d\u0131k y\u00fczler, halk\u0131n haf\u0131zas\u0131nda h\u00e2l\u00e2 oligark d\u00fczeni ve yolsuzluk d\u00f6nemleriyle \u00f6zde\u015fle\u015fti\u011fi i\u00e7in se\u00e7men eskiye d\u00f6nmektense Pa\u015finyan\u2019\u0131n faturas\u0131na raz\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n Ancak Pa\u015finyan i\u00e7in as\u0131l mesele se\u00e7imi k\u0131l pay\u0131 kazanmak de\u011fil. As\u0131l mesele, Azerbaycan ile y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecini nihayete erdirecek o devasa siyasi g\u00fcce, yani anayasal \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fa<\/strong> ula\u015f\u0131p ula\u015famayaca\u011f\u0131. Bilindi\u011fi \u00fczere Bak\u00fc’n\u00fcn bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in masaya koydu\u011fu en sert \u00f6n \u015fartlardan biri, Ermenistan Anayasas\u0131’ndaki (1990 Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k Deklarasyonu\u2019na at\u0131f yapan) tarihsel referanslar\u0131n ay\u0131klanmas\u0131. Pazar g\u00fcnk\u00fc sand\u0131k, i\u015fte bu y\u00fczden sadece bir ba\u015fbakan se\u00e7meyecek; bar\u0131\u015f masas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00f6mr\u00fcn\u00fc de \u00e7izecek.<\/p>\n Moskova ile Bat\u0131 Aras\u0131nda Bir Sand\u0131k Sava\u015f\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n Madalyonun di\u011fer y\u00fcz\u00fcnde ise bu kez sahneye \u00e7ok daha farkl\u0131 bir akt\u00f6r \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Rusya ile yak\u0131n ba\u011flar\u0131 bilinen milyarder Samvel Karapetyan<\/strong>\u2019\u0131n mimar\u0131 oldu\u011fu “G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Ermenistan”<\/strong> ittifak\u0131, anketlerde %15\u2019leri zorlayarak ana muhalefet oda\u011f\u0131 haline geldi. Eski Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Robert Ko\u00e7aryan\u2019\u0131n geleneksel milliyet\u00e7i \u00e7izgisiyle de birle\u015fince kar\u015f\u0131 cephe tam bir pro-Rus blokuna d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n Bu durum, Erivan\u2019daki sand\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7lerin a\u00e7\u0131k bir n\u00fcfuz sava\u015f\u0131na \u00e7eviriyor. Bir tarafta, Pa\u015finyan\u2019a a\u00e7\u0131k destek veren ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Br\u00fcksel\u2019de onaylanan ve b\u00f6lgeyi Bat\u0131 ticaret a\u011flar\u0131na entegre etmeyi ama\u00e7layan TRIPP<\/strong> (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity<\/em>) projesi var. Di\u011fer tarafta ise Ermenistan\u2019\u0131n KGA\u00d6\u2019(Kolektif G\u00fcvenlik Antla\u015fmas\u0131 \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc)<\/em><\/strong> den fiilen kopmas\u0131ndan ve Rus askerlerini s\u0131n\u0131r d\u0131\u015f\u0131 etmesinden derin rahats\u0131zl\u0131k duyan, Erivan\u2019\u0131 yeniden kendi geleneksel \u015femsiyesine \u00e7ekmek isteyen bir Kremlin mevcut. Yani bu pazar kulaklar sadece Erivan\u2019da de\u011fil; Washington\u2019da, Br\u00fcksel\u2019de, Moskova\u2019da, Ankara\u2019da ve Bak\u00fc\u2019de de p\u00fcrdikkat kesilecek.<\/p>\n Haritalar\u0131n Sava\u015f\u0131: “Ger\u00e7ek Ermenistan” Doktrini<\/strong><\/p>\n Pa\u015finyan\u2019\u0131n meydanlarda y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kampanyan\u0131n merkezinde edebi ve ideolojik bir manifesto yer al\u0131yor: “Ger\u00e7ek Ermenistan”<\/strong> (Real Armenia) doktrini. Ba\u015fbakan k\u00fcrs\u00fclere elinde sar\u0131 bir Ermenistan haritas\u0131 maketiyle \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor ve se\u00e7mene son derece radikal, bir o kadar da ezber bozan bir mesaj veriyor: “Tarihsel mitlerin, ge\u00e7mi\u015fin b\u00fcy\u00fck hayallerinin pe\u015finden ko\u015fmay\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131p; uluslararas\u0131 hukukun tan\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 29.743 kilometrekarelik mevcut devlet s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131m\u0131za odaklanal\u0131m.”<\/em><\/p>\n Bu hamle, Ermeni siyasi zihniyetinde y\u00fczy\u0131ll\u0131k bir ezberin bozulmas\u0131 demek. Muhalefet ise tam bu noktada aya\u011fa kalk\u0131yor. Onlara g\u00f6re bu rasyonellik de\u011fil, bir “taviz ve teslimiyet” politikas\u0131. Sand\u0131\u011f\u0131n ideolojik \u00f6z\u00fc de burada d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcmleniyor: Ge\u00e7mi\u015fin iddialar\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rak\u0131p co\u011frafyayla bar\u0131\u015fmak isteyenler ile bu geri \u00e7ekilmeyi ulusal bir kimlik kayb\u0131 olarak g\u00f6renler kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya.<\/p>\n Bizim S\u0131n\u0131rlar A\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r m\u0131?<\/strong><\/p>\n Gelelim bizi, T\u00fcrkiye ve Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131 do\u011frudan ilgilendiren o can al\u0131c\u0131 soruya: Muhalefet kazan\u0131rsa ne olur?<\/strong><\/p>\n A\u00e7\u0131k konu\u015fmak gerekirse; Samvel Karapetyan veya Ko\u00e7aryan \u00e7izgisinin belirleyici olaca\u011f\u0131 bir koalisyon senaryosunda, son y\u0131llarda ilmek ilmek dokunan normalle\u015fme s\u00fcreci tamamen donar ve rafa kalkar<\/strong>. Muhalefet, Nah\u00e7\u0131van\u2019\u0131 Azerbaycan ana karas\u0131na ba\u011flayacak ula\u015f\u0131m hatlar\u0131na (Zengezur Koridoru) ve s\u0131n\u0131r belirleme komisyonlar\u0131na kesin bir dille kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Karaba\u011f dosyas\u0131n\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 mahkemelerde yeniden agresif bir \u015fekilde ka\u015f\u0131ma s\u00f6z\u00fc veriyorlar ki bu durum, b\u00f6lgede diplomatik zeminin \u00e7\u00f6kmesi ve s\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ebediyen kilitli kalmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n E\u011fer Pa\u015finyan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde sand\u0131ktan \u00e7\u0131karsa, Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ve hatta savunma sanayisinde yeni m\u00fcttefiki haline gelen Hindistan\u2019\u0131n deste\u011fiyle “Bar\u0131\u015f Kav\u015fa\u011f\u0131” projesini y\u00fcr\u00fctmeye, T\u00fcrkiye ile s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 a\u00e7ma vadini kovalamaya devam edecektir.<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye Ermenileri cemaati ve Garo Paylan gibi sivil akt\u00f6rler de s\u00fcreci bu rasyonel pencereden izliyor. Oy haklar\u0131 olmasa da \u0130stanbul\u2019dan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcnen net: B\u00f6lgede s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, ticaretin ve halklar aras\u0131 temas\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir iklimin kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131, ancak bu bar\u0131\u015f iradesinin sand\u0131kta korunmas\u0131yla m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n Last Word<\/strong><\/p>\n Ermenistan se\u00e7meni bu pazar sadece parlamenter se\u00e7meyecek, \u00fclkenin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc belirleyecek tarihi bir y\u00f6n tabelas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne dikilecek.<\/p>\n \u00d6nlerinde iki farkl\u0131 yol var: Ya kom\u015fularla uzla\u015fmay\u0131, s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 a\u00e7may\u0131 vadeden ama anayasal tavizleri de bar\u0131nd\u0131ran riskli bir “Bar\u0131\u015f Kav\u015fa\u011f\u0131”<\/strong>; ya da g\u00fcvenlik kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 merkeze alan, Rusya’n\u0131n geleneksel \u015femsiyesine s\u0131\u011f\u0131nan ama b\u00f6lgeyle olan ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 tamamen koparan bir “G\u00fcvenlik Duvar\u0131”<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Sand\u0131ktan ne \u00e7\u0131karsa \u00e7\u0131ks\u0131n, faturas\u0131 da \u00f6d\u00fcl\u00fc de Kafkasya da\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015facak.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Ermenistan, G\u00fcney Kafkasya\u2019n\u0131n jeopolitik kaderini belirleyecek tarihi bir se\u00e7imin e\u015fi\u011finde.. Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc, yani 7 Haziran 2026\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,5 milyon Ermenistan vatanda\u015f\u0131 sand\u0131k ba\u015f\u0131na gidecek. Fakat bu pazar kurulacak sand\u0131klar, alelade bir parlamento aritmeti\u011fi belirlemenin \u00e7ok \u00f6tesinde bir anlama sahip. Erivan\u2019da verilecek oylar; G\u00fcney Kafkasya\u2019n\u0131n, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ve Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n da i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu koca bir co\u011frafyan\u0131n jeopolitik kaderini […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":286492,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[286],"tags":[289],"class_list":["post-286487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-yazarlar","tag-manset"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/286487","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=286487"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/286487\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":286490,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/286487\/revisions\/286490"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/286492"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=286487"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=286487"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=286487"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}