Those who play billiards know: The player hits the ball with the cue, the target is clear, but the outcome is not always planned. The ball goes, hits another ball by chance and scores. It's called \u201ccarom.\u201d In other words, a result in which skill and coincidence are intertwined, and often luck plays a part...<\/p>\n
There are similar situations in politics. Plans, programs, and strategies are explained, but the outcome often depends on the direction of the wind, the harshness of the conjuncture and the psychology of the electorate at that moment. This is precisely where \u201ccarom politics\u201d comes into play: The area where the difference between manufactured success and achieved success is blurred...<\/p>\n
Be\u015f ayl\u0131k ba\u015fkanl\u0131k performans\u0131yla girilen se\u00e7imde, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemin birikimi \u00fczerinden al\u0131nan oy(2023 Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7iminde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan yakla\u015f\u0131k %48\u2019lik ba\u015far\u0131) bir t\u00fcr haz\u0131r kredi gibi kullan\u0131ld\u0131. Bu kredi, yeni bir \u00fcretimin de\u011fil, eski birikimin faizi gibiydi. Aradan ge\u00e7en s\u00fcre\u00e7te yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 puanl\u0131k erime ya\u015fanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan tablo h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u201cba\u015far\u0131\u201d olarak sunuluyor.<\/p>\n
But there is a simple question to be asked here:
\nWhat has really been won?<\/p>\n
To be first or to get stronger?
\nTo win the election or to convince the voters?<\/p>\n
\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc siyaset yaln\u0131zca s\u0131ralama meselesi de\u011fildir; s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir g\u00fc\u00e7, toplumsal r\u0131za ve kar\u015f\u0131 bloktan oy dev\u015firme kapasitesiyle \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcr. \u00d6zellikle Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sistemi gibi %50+1 e\u015fi\u011finin belirleyici oldu\u011fu bir d\u00fczende, kendi mahallesini konsolide etmek yetmez. Kar\u015f\u0131dan oy alamayan her yap\u0131, ne kadar y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrse g\u00f6r\u00fcns\u00fcn, asl\u0131nda tavan\u0131na \u00e7arpm\u0131\u015f demektir.<\/p>\n
Polling companies have become one of the most active actors in this murky ground. A mechanism that directs rather than measures, that generates expectations rather than analyzes... But they know this too: The real data is the voters' decision at the ballot box. But as the distance between data and perception widens, polls cease to be a measurement tool and become an element of psychological warfare.<\/p>\n
The psychological advantage after the local elections is another topic. What we call momentum in politics is rarely captured and quickly lost if not managed well. This advantage should have been consolidated through policy-making, inclusive discourse and an expansion strategy. But it seems that this opportunity could not be turned into a lasting advantage.<\/p>\n
At this point, we are experiencing a process in which external developments (economic, diplomatic and geopolitical issues) are opening up space in favor of the government. It is precisely in such a conjuncture that discussions of \u201cby-elections\u201d or early elections are back on the agenda, which deserves to be questioned in terms of political wisdom.<\/p>\n
Is this confidence or haste?<\/p>\n
This is where the strange psychology of the gambler who plays to lose comes into play: The more you lose, the more you play, the bigger the risk, the more you risk... Because sometimes it's not about winning, it's about staying at the table. And sometimes it is about delaying an impending loss.<\/p>\n
There is another possibility:
\nStuckness<\/p>\n
Politics is shaped not only by the electorate but also by internal party balances, alliance relations and leadership debates. In such periods, early moves often send a message not to the opponent but to the inside. It is read as a way of saying \u201cI am in control\u201d.<\/p>\n
But every move has a cost.
\nAnd every wrong timing can undo even the best strategy.<\/p>\n
This is where what we call charam politic begins:
\nWinning with a carom is mistaken for strategy...
\nThe substitution of luck for skill...
\nTemporary superiority mistaken for permanent power.<\/p>\n
And then the inevitable end:
\nShampoo<\/p>\n
Because politics is a game of continuity, not of coincidence.
\nAnd continuity is possible not only by winning, but by being able to keep winning.<\/p>\n
I got it.
\nAnd you understood.<\/p>\n
Let those who understand explain to those who don't.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Because politics is a game of continuity, not of coincidence.
\nAnd continuity is possible not only by winning, but by being able to keep winning.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":285361,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[286],"tags":[289],"class_list":["post-285360","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-yazarlar","tag-manset"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285360","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=285360"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285360\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":285362,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285360\/revisions\/285362"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/285361"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=285360"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=285360"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=285360"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}