\u0130slamabad\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ve tam 21 saat s\u00fcren ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri, diplomasi tarihinde nadir g\u00f6r\u00fclen uzunlukta ve yo\u011funlukta temaslardan biri olarak kayda ge\u00e7ti. Ancak bu maraton g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerden somut bir sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131. JD Vance\u2019in net ifadeleriyle \u201cuzla\u015fma yok, anla\u015fma yok.\u201d Washington\u2019un \u201cnihai teklif\u201d olarak sundu\u011fu \u00e7er\u00e7evenin Tahran taraf\u0131ndan reddedilmesi, taraflar aras\u0131ndaki derin g\u00fcvensizli\u011fin h\u00e2l\u00e2 a\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Taraflar masay\u0131 terk etmedi ama somut ilerleme de kaydedilmedi. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde:
\nAte\u015fkesin uzat\u0131l\u0131p uzat\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131,
\nH\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n stat\u00fcs\u00fc,
\nN\u00fckleer dosyan\u0131n yeni tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131p ta\u015f\u0131nmayaca\u011f\u0131
\nkritik olacak.
\nTrump y\u00f6netiminin \u201ck\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgiler\u201d vurgusu ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201czaferimizi masada tescil ettirece\u011fiz\u201d tutumu aras\u0131ndaki mesafe h\u00e2l\u00e2 b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131n merkezinde ise \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 yer al\u0131yor. ABD, uzun vadeli ve ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fcvenceler talep ederken; Tahran bu t\u00fcr taahh\u00fctlerin egemenlik alan\u0131na m\u00fcdahale anlam\u0131na gelece\u011fini savunuyor. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u201cyo\u011fun ve ciddi\u201d ge\u00e7ti\u011fini kabul etmekle birlikte, s\u00fcrecin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 Washington\u2019un \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 taleplerine\u201d ba\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Diplomasi masas\u0131ndaki bu t\u0131kanma, sahadaki gerilimle paralel ilerliyor. Binyamin Netanyahu liderli\u011findeki \u0130srail h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, Hizbullah hedeflerine y\u00f6nelik operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, Bat\u0131 \u015eeria\u2019da da askeri faaliyetlerini geni\u015fletiyor. Netanyahu\u2019nun olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fma i\u00e7in Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n tamamen silahs\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u015fart ko\u015fmas\u0131, b\u00f6lgesel denklemi daha da sertle\u015ftiren bir unsur olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, yaln\u0131zca \u0130ran ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fczakereleri de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda L\u00fcbnan ve genel olarak Do\u011fu Akdeniz g\u00fcvenlik mimarisini de do\u011frudan etkiliyor.<\/p>\n
Enerji boyutu ise bu krizin en kritik ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131ndan biri olmaya devam ediyor. Suudi Arabistan, sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00fcretim kapasitesini h\u0131zla toparlayarak g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 7 milyon varil seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu ad\u0131m, k\u00fcresel piyasalarda arz \u015fokunu s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya y\u00f6nelik stratejik bir hamle olarak okunmal\u0131. \u0130ran taraf\u0131 ise hasar g\u00f6ren rafineri ve da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m altyap\u0131s\u0131na ra\u011fmen k\u0131sa vadede %70-80 kapasiteye ula\u015fmay\u0131 hedefledi\u011fini belirtiyor. Bu durum, Tahran\u2019\u0131n ekonomik ve stratejik dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan dikkat \u00e7ekici.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tablo ayr\u0131 bir hassasiyet bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor. Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 halinde \u0130srail\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 daha sert ad\u0131mlar\u0131n g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fini ifade ederek Ankara\u2019n\u0131n pozisyonunu netle\u015ftirdi. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yaln\u0131zca diplomatik bir akt\u00f6r de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda gerekti\u011finde sahaya etki edebilecek bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak konumland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 olarak \u0130slamabad g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri, bir \u201cbreakthrough\u201d yani s\u0131\u00e7rama yaratamad\u0131; ancak bir \u201cbreakdown\u201d yani tam \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f de ya\u015fanmad\u0131. Taraflar masay\u0131 terk etmedi ama \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm de \u00fcretemedi. Bu durum, uluslararas\u0131 sistemin giderek daha fazla \u201cara b\u00f6lgede\u201d s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor: Ne tam bar\u0131\u015f ne de a\u00e7\u0131k sava\u015f. Ancak bu gri alan, san\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir k\u0131v\u0131lc\u0131m, b\u00f6lgesel bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 k\u00fcresel bir krize d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrme potansiyeline sahip. Diplomasi \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor, fakat asl\u0131nda yaln\u0131zca zaman kazand\u0131r\u0131yor. Ve o zaman\u0131n kimin lehine i\u015fledi\u011fi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcrecin en belirleyici sorusu olacak.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130slamabad g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri, bir \u201cbreakthrough\u201d yani s\u0131\u00e7rama yaratamad\u0131; ancak bir \u201cbreakdown\u201d yani tam \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f de ya\u015fanmad\u0131.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":55,"featured_media":284971,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[286],"tags":[289],"class_list":{"0":"post-284970","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-yazarlar","8":"tag-manset"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/284970","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/55"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=284970"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/284970\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":284972,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/284970\/revisions\/284972"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/284971"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=284970"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=284970"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=284970"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}