Ortado\u011fu\u2019ya h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u201ckriz b\u00f6lgesi\u201d diyenler var.
\nBu ifade art\u0131k bir analiz de\u011fil, bir ka\u00e7\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc kriz dedi\u011fimiz \u015fey ge\u00e7icidir.
\nOrtado\u011fu\u2019da ya\u015fanan ise kal\u0131c\u0131 bir yap\u0131sal gerilimdir.
\nDaha a\u00e7\u0131k s\u00f6yleyelim: Bu co\u011frafyada olan biten, devletler aras\u0131 bir anla\u015fmazl\u0131k de\u011fil, k\u00fcresel sistemin kendi s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131na dayanmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ve bu s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n ad\u0131 bug\u00fcn en somut haliyle \u0130ran\u2019d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131 anlamayan herkes meseleyi yanl\u0131\u015f yerden okur.
\nOnu sadece bir rejim, bir ideoloji ya da bir b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6r olarak g\u00f6renler, asl\u0131nda daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ger\u00e7e\u011fi \u0131skalar: \u0130ran, bir \u00fclke olman\u0131n \u00f6tesinde, emperyal sistemin i\u015fleyi\u015fine \u00e7arpan bir diren\u00e7 noktas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u00fczden \u0130ran meselesi hi\u00e7bir zaman sadece \u0130ran meselesi olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
STER\u0130L KAVRAMLARIN ARDINDAK\u0130 GER\u00c7EK: S\u0130STEM\u0130N KR\u0130Z\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n Bug\u00fcn medya ve diplomasi dili bize s\u00fcrekli ayn\u0131 \u015feyleri tekrar eder: \u201cgerilim\u201d, \u201cistikrars\u0131zl\u0131k\u201d, \u201cg\u00fcvenlik tehdidi\u201d.<\/p>\n Oysa bu kavramlar, ger\u00e7e\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klamak i\u00e7in de\u011fil, gizlemek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n Ger\u00e7ek \u015fudur: Ortado\u011fu\u2019da y\u00fcr\u00fcyen \u015fey bir g\u00fcvenlik krizi de\u011fil, ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n kontrol\u00fc sava\u015f\u0131d\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n Enerji ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131. Modern d\u00fcnyada egemenlik art\u0131k toprakla de\u011fil, ak\u0131\u015flarla kurulur. Haritalar de\u011fil, hatlar belirleyicidir. Bu y\u00fczden bug\u00fcn bir \u00fclkeyi i\u015fgal etmekten daha etkili olan \u015fey, o \u00fclkenin i\u00e7inden ge\u00e7en ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 kesmektir.<\/p>\n \u0130\u015fte \u0130ran tam burada devreye girer.<\/p>\n \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130ran, bu ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n en kritik d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm noktalar\u0131ndan birinde durur. Ve daha \u00f6nemlisi, bu d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fc \u00e7\u00f6zme de\u011fil, s\u0131kma kapasitesine sahiptir.<\/p>\n H\u00dcRM\u00dcZ BO\u011eAZI: K\u00dcRESEL S\u0130STEM\u0130N \u015eAH DAMARI<\/strong><\/p>\n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerine yap\u0131lan tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu y\u00fczeyseldir. Petrol ge\u00e7i\u015f oranlar\u0131, tanker say\u0131lar\u0131, g\u00fcnl\u00fck varil hesaplar\u0131\u2026<\/p>\n Bunlar\u0131n hi\u00e7biri meselenin \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc anlatmaz.<\/p>\n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz, sadece enerji ta\u015f\u0131nan bir yer de\u011fildir. Bu y\u00fczden \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc klasik anlamda \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclemez. Ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 kesebilme ihtimali.<\/strong><\/p>\n Bu ihtimal ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmese bile yeterlidir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc modern sistem riskle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaz, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirlikle \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. \u0130ran ise \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemezlik \u00fcretir.<\/p>\n Ve bu, emperyal akl\u0131n en tahamm\u00fcl edemedi\u011fi \u015feydir.<\/p>\n EMPERYAL\u0130ZM\u0130N K\u00d6R NOKTASI: AS\u0130METR\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri askeri olarak d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc akt\u00f6r\u00fcd\u00fcr. \u0130ran ise bu oyunu oynamaz.<\/p>\n Bu y\u00fczden \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n stratejisi yanl\u0131\u015f anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r. Oysa \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sorusu farkl\u0131d\u0131r:<\/p>\n \u201cKar\u015f\u0131 taraf kazanabilir mi?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n Bu iki soru aras\u0131ndaki fark, b\u00fct\u00fcn denklemi de\u011fi\u015ftirir.<\/p>\n \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 kazanmak i\u00e7in de\u011fil, kar\u015f\u0131 taraf\u0131n kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 imk\u00e2ns\u0131z hale getirmek i\u00e7in hareket eder. Bu, zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n de\u011fil, stratejik akl\u0131n \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n KONTROL \u0130LL\u00dcZYONU: EMPERYAL S\u0130STEM\u0130N PARADOKSU<\/strong><\/p>\n Bug\u00fcn Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri Ortado\u011fu\u2019da h\u00e2l\u00e2 en belirleyici g\u00fc\u00e7 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr. Askeri \u00fcsler, ittifaklar, siyasi etkiler\u2026<\/p>\n Ama bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc art\u0131k mesele kontrol etmek de\u011fil, kontrol\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmektir. Irak m\u00fcdahalesi bir \u201ckontrol\u201d projesiydi. Suriye bir \u201cdenge\u201d operasyonuydu. Libya bir \u201cistikrar\u201d hamlesiydi. Bu \u00f6rnekler tek bir \u015feyi g\u00f6sterir: \u0130ran bu zafiyeti \u00e7ok iyi okur. Ve tam da bu noktaya oynar.<\/p>\n BA\u011eIMLILIK: G\u00dcC\u00dcN G\u00d6R\u00dcNMEYEN Z\u0130NC\u0130R\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n Klasik anlat\u0131 bize \u015funu s\u00f6yler: Merkez g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcd\u00fcr, \u00e7evre zay\u0131f.<\/p>\n Ama bug\u00fcn ger\u00e7ek bunun tersine d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/p>\n Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri K\u00f6rfez\u2019i kontrol eder. Enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 kesildi\u011finde zarar g\u00f6recek olan sadece \u00fcreticiler de\u011fil, t\u00fcketici merkezlerdir. Bu durum emperyalizmin en b\u00fcy\u00fck paradoksunu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r:<\/p>\n Hakimiyet artt\u0131k\u00e7a ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k artar.<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0130ran bu ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir kald\u0131ra\u00e7 olarak kullan\u0131r. \u0130SRA\u0130L, DO\u011eU AKDEN\u0130Z VE YEN\u0130 CO\u011eRAFYA<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0130srail ile ya\u015fanan gerilim \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ideolojik ya da g\u00fcvenlik temelli anlat\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n Ama ger\u00e7ekte mesele \u00e7ok daha somuttur:<\/p>\n Bu b\u00f6lgede ya\u015fananlar bir s\u0131n\u0131r tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 de\u011fil, co\u011frafyan\u0131n yeniden i\u015flevlendirilmesidir.<\/p>\n Modern sava\u015f art\u0131k toprak almak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lmaz. \u0130nsanlar\u0131 yerinden edersiniz. Sonra o b\u00f6lgeyi i\u015fgal etmeden kontrol edersiniz.<\/p>\n \u0130ran bu s\u00fcrecin do\u011frudan akt\u00f6r\u00fc olmayabilir. \u00c7\u0130N: G\u00d6R\u00dcNMEYEN DENGE<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n \u00c7in bu hik\u00e2yenin en sessiz ama en kritik akt\u00f6r\u00fcd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n \u00c7in sava\u015f istemez. Ama enerjiye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131d\u0131r. Bu y\u00fczden \u00c7in i\u00e7in istikrar bir tercih de\u011fil, zorunluluktur.<\/p>\n Bu durum Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri\u2019nin hareket alan\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Bu, yeni d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en sert ger\u00e7e\u011fidir: \u0130RAN: B\u0130R DEVLET DE\u011e\u0130L, B\u0130R SINIR<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 sadece bir \u00fclke olarak okumak hatad\u0131r.<\/p>\n \u0130ran bir s\u0131n\u0131rd\u0131r:<\/p>\n Bu y\u00fczden mesele \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ne yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011fil, \u0130ran yenilmez de\u011fildir. Ve sistemler \u00e7\u00f6zemedi\u011fi problemlerle ya\u015famak zorunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, i\u00e7ten i\u00e7e \u00e7\u00fcr\u00fcmeye ba\u015flar.<\/p>\n YIKILMAYAN AMA T\u00dcKENEN B\u0130R D\u00dcZEN<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n Bug\u00fcn kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131zda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir imparatorluk yok.<\/p>\n Sadece hen\u00fcz \u00e7\u00f6kmemi\u015f bir sistem var.<\/p>\n \u0130ran bu sistemi y\u0131kmaz. Ve tarih bize \u015funu \u00f6\u011fretir:<\/p>\n Hi\u00e7bir sistem bir anda \u00e7\u00f6kmez. Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ya\u015fanan tam olarak budur.<\/p>\n \u0130ran bu s\u00fcrecin nedeni de\u011fil, sonucudur.<\/p>\n Ama ayn\u0131 zamanda h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Bug\u00fcn kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131zda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir imparatorluk yok.<\/p>\n Sadece hen\u00fcz \u00e7\u00f6kmemi\u015f bir sistem var.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":284668,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[286],"tags":[289],"class_list":{"0":"post-284666","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-yazarlar","8":"tag-manset"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/284666","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=284666"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/284666\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":284669,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/284666\/revisions\/284669"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/284668"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=284666"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=284666"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=284666"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nSu kaynaklar\u0131.
\nTicaret yollar\u0131.
\nVeri ve finans hareketleri.<\/p>\n
\nOras\u0131, k\u00fcresel kapitalizmin s\u00fcreklili\u011finin fiziksel garantisidir.<\/p>\n
\n\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck silah\u0131 bir ordu de\u011fil, bir ihtimaldir:<\/p>\n
\nAma bu g\u00fc\u00e7, belirli bir oyun d\u00fczenine g\u00f6re tasarlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r: konvansiyonel sava\u015f, a\u00e7\u0131k cepheler, belirli hedefler.<\/p>\n\n
\n\u00c7o\u011fu analiz h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u015fu soruyu sorar: \u201c\u0130ran kazanabilir mi?\u201d<\/p>\n
\nVe emperyal sistem tam burada t\u00f6kezler.<\/p>\n
\nSonu\u00e7: kontrols\u00fczl\u00fck.<\/p>\n
\nSonu\u00e7: \u00e7ok katmanl\u0131 kaos.<\/p>\n
\nSonu\u00e7: par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f bir yap\u0131.<\/p>\n
\nEmperyal sistem plan yapabilir ama sonucu kontrol edemez.<\/p>\n
\nAma ayn\u0131 zamanda K\u00f6rfez\u2019e ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\nBu y\u00fczden \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 at\u0131lan her ad\u0131m, ayn\u0131 zamanda sistemin kendi k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n
\nTopra\u011f\u0131 ya\u015fanmaz hale getirmek i\u00e7in yap\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\nAltyap\u0131y\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6kertirsiniz.
\nEkonomiyi durdurursunuz.<\/p>\n
\nAma etkileyici bir unsuru olarak denklemin i\u00e7inde yer al\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\n\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00fcretim onun elindedir.<\/p>\n
\nVe o enerji Ortado\u011fu\u2019dan gelir.<\/p>\n
\nArt\u0131k hi\u00e7bir g\u00fc\u00e7 tek ba\u015f\u0131na hareket edemez.<\/p>\n
\nG\u00fc\u00e7 da\u011f\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ve birbirini kilitler.<\/p>\n\n
\nsistemin \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ne yapamad\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\nAma \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclemez bir problemdir.<\/p>\n
\nAma onun \u00e7eli\u015fkilerini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
\n\u00d6nce anlam\u0131n\u0131 kaybeder.
\nSonra me\u015fruiyetini.
\nEn sonunda da kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc.<\/p>\n