There is a rumor that has been circulating in recent days: Azerbaijan may declare war on Iran. In my opinion, this possibility is quite weak, even unrealistic.<\/p>\n
Politics does not tolerate romance; states are driven not by emotions but by calculations of interests. Ilham Aliyev is a leader who realizes this. Going directly to war with a big country like Iran would be a big gamble for Azerbaijan.<\/p>\n
Yes, Baku has strong military and technological ties with Israel. But in international relations, no alliance means unlimited guarantees. It is one thing to have diplomatic support behind a country, it is quite another to be directly involved in a war.<\/p>\n
Moreover, Azerbaijan has already made a very important strategic gain in recent years: It has regained control over Karabakh. Another issue now on the agenda is the Zangezur Corridor. Risking a major war with Iran at such a sensitive time could jeopardize all the gains made.<\/p>\n
There is also the Moscow dimension. Vladimir Putin is already carrying a heavy geopolitical burden because of the war in Ukraine. In such a situation, opening a new front in the Caucasus would be something that Russia would not want. Therefore, Moscow is unlikely to play an active role in this scenario.<\/p>\n
In short, there is a lot of noise and rumors in the Caucasus. But real politics often follows the path of cold reason, not rumors.<\/p>\n
And that wisdom tells us today:
\nIt is much more likely that Azerbaijan will not go to war with Iran, but will try to manage the balance without going to the brink of war.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Politics is not romanticized; states are driven not by emotions but by self-interest.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":283394,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[286],"tags":[289],"class_list":{"0":"post-283393","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-yazarlar","8":"tag-manset"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283393","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=283393"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283393\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":283395,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283393\/revisions\/283395"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/283394"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=283393"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=283393"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=283393"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}