Ortado\u011fu\u2019da bir kez daha tarih k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 askeri operasyon yaln\u0131zca bir \u00fclkeye kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen bir sava\u015f de\u011fildir. Bu sald\u0131r\u0131, uzun zamand\u0131r haz\u0131rlanan daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir jeopolitik m\u00fchendisli\u011fin par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r. Diplomasi g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc alt\u0131nda ilerleyen, fakat nihai hedefi askeri ve siyasi yeniden d\u00fczenleme olan bir stratejinin sahneye konulu\u015fudur.<\/p>\n
Bu sava\u015f\u0131n ilk g\u00fcn\u00fcnde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan tablo bile tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeterince a\u00e7\u0131klay\u0131c\u0131d\u0131r: \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n dini lideri Ali Hamaney ve \u00fcst d\u00fczey askeri-siyasi kadrolar\u0131 hedef al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f, \u00fclkenin bir\u00e7ok vilayeti e\u015f zamanl\u0131 bombard\u0131mana tutulmu\u015f, askeri tesislerin yan\u0131nda sivil yerle\u015fimler de vurulmu\u015ftur. G\u00fcney \u0130ran\u2019da bir k\u0131z okulunun bombalanmas\u0131 ve onlarca \u00e7ocu\u011fun hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmesi, modern sava\u015f\u0131n \u201ccerrahi operasyon\u201d s\u00f6yleminin ne kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck bir yalan oldu\u011funu bir kez daha g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Modern sava\u015f\u0131n teknik dili, \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn ahlaki sorumlulu\u011funu gizleyen bir perde haline gelmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Kafa Koparma Stratejisi: Devletin Beynini Yok Etmek<\/strong><\/p>\n Bu sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n askeri doktrini olduk\u00e7a nettir: \u201cdecapitation strike\u201d, yani kafa koparma stratejisi. Ama\u00e7 yaln\u0131zca askeri kapasiteyi de\u011fil, devletin karar mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rmakt\u0131r. Siyasi liderlik, askeri komuta ve g\u00fcvenlik b\u00fcrokrasisi hedef al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda devlet yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede \u00e7\u00f6kece\u011fi varsay\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n Bu y\u00f6ntem son yirmi y\u0131lda bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede uygulanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Irak\u2019ta Saddam H\u00fcseyin rejimi bu \u015fekilde \u00e7\u00f6kertildi. Libya\u2019da Muammer Kaddafi hedef al\u0131nd\u0131. Ancak bu operasyonlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan \u015fey demokratik bir d\u00fczen de\u011fil, devlet otoritesinin par\u00e7alanmas\u0131 ve uzun s\u00fcreli kaos oldu.<\/p>\n Devletlerin ba\u015f\u0131 kesildi\u011finde toplumlar\u0131n \u00f6zg\u00fcrle\u015fti\u011fi de\u011fil, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman par\u00e7aland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/p>\n Sahte Ger\u00e7eklik: Sava\u015f\u0131n Propaganda A\u015famas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n Her sava\u015f \u00f6nce zihinlerde ba\u015flar. Askeri operasyonlar ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce kamuoyunun haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekir. Bunun i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan y\u00f6ntem ise yeni de\u011fildir: tehdit anlat\u0131lar\u0131 \u00fcretmek.<\/p>\n Bug\u00fcn \u0130ran i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan s\u00f6ylemler dikkat \u00e7ekicidir. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah geli\u015ftirdi\u011fi, k\u0131talararas\u0131 f\u00fcze haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve d\u00fcnyay\u0131 tehdit etti\u011fi iddialar\u0131 s\u00fcrekli tekrar edilmektedir. Ancak bu s\u00f6ylem, yak\u0131n tarihte \u00e7ok tan\u0131d\u0131k bir \u00f6rne\u011fe sahiptir.<\/p>\n 2003 Irak i\u015fgali \u00f6ncesinde de d\u00fcnya kamuoyuna ayn\u0131 \u015fey s\u00f6ylenmi\u015fti: Saddam H\u00fcseyin rejiminin kitle imha silahlar\u0131 oldu\u011fu iddia edilmi\u015fti. Bu iddia, sava\u015f\u0131n en \u00f6nemli gerek\u00e7esi olarak sunuldu. \u0130\u015fgal ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti, Irak y\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131, y\u00fczbinlerce insan hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti. Sonras\u0131nda ise o silahlar\u0131n hi\u00e7bir zaman var olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n Bu durum emperyal m\u00fcdahalelerin temel bir mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyar: ger\u00e7eklik \u00e7o\u011fu zaman sava\u015f\u0131n \u00f6ncesinde yeniden in\u015fa edilir.<\/p>\n Korku yarat\u0131l\u0131r, tehdit b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcl\u00fcr, propaganda yay\u0131l\u0131r. Ard\u0131ndan askeri m\u00fcdahale me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n Diplomasi Bir Aldatma m\u0131yd\u0131?<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131 ayr\u0131ca dikkat \u00e7ekicidir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc operasyon, \u0130ran ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131nda y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen n\u00fckleer m\u00fczakerelerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir d\u00f6nemde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Umman arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde taraflar\u0131n anla\u015fmaya olduk\u00e7a yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu konu\u015fuluyordu.<\/p>\n Bu durum \u015fu soruyu g\u00fcndeme getiriyor: Diplomasi ger\u00e7ekten bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 m\u0131yd\u0131, yoksa askeri operasyon i\u00e7in zaman kazanma y\u00f6ntemi mi?<\/p>\n Ortado\u011fu tarihinde diplomasi \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ger\u00e7ek bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n de\u011fil, sava\u015f haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n par\u00e7as\u0131 olmu\u015ftur. Masada m\u00fczakere y\u00fcr\u00fcrken askeri planlar haz\u0131rlan\u0131r. Kamuoyuna bar\u0131\u015f mesajlar\u0131 verilirken sava\u015f senaryolar\u0131 tamamlan\u0131r.<\/p>\n Bu nedenle Ortado\u011fu\u2019da diplomasi \u00e7o\u011fu zaman bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n de\u011fil, sava\u015f\u0131n \u00f6ns\u00f6z\u00fcd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Yeni Stratejisi: Stratejik Sab\u0131rdan Aktif Sava\u015fa<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0130ran uzun y\u0131llar boyunca do\u011frudan sava\u015f yerine \u201cstratejik sab\u0131r\u201d doktrini uygulad\u0131. B\u00f6lgesel vekil g\u00fc\u00e7ler, diplomatik manevralar ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 misillemeler bu politikan\u0131n temel ara\u00e7lar\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n Ancak son sald\u0131r\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n askeri yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n Tahran art\u0131k yaln\u0131zca kendi topraklar\u0131n\u0131 savunan bir akt\u00f6r de\u011fildir. K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki Amerikan \u00fcsleri hedef al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f, b\u00f6lgedeki askeri varl\u0131klar do\u011frudan sald\u0131r\u0131ya u\u011fram\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 tehdidi ise k\u00fcresel enerji sistemini do\u011frudan etkileyecek bir hamledir.<\/p>\n D\u00fcnya petrol ticaretinin \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131 bu dar ge\u00e7itten ge\u00e7mektedir. Bu nedenle \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 yaln\u0131zca Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun de\u011fil, k\u00fcresel ekonominin de kaderini etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n Rejim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi Projesi<\/strong><\/p>\n Askeri sald\u0131r\u0131larla e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak bir ba\u015fka cephe daha a\u00e7\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r: psikolojik ve siyasi sava\u015f.<\/p>\n ABD y\u00f6netiminin \u0130ran halk\u0131na yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar, s\u00fcrg\u00fcndeki muhalif hareketlerin devreye sokulmas\u0131 ve ge\u00e7i\u015f y\u00f6netimi tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 bu sava\u015f\u0131n yaln\u0131zca askeri de\u011fil siyasi bir hedefi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n Rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi s\u00f6ylemi emperyal m\u00fcdahalelerin en s\u0131k kullan\u0131lan arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131ndan biridir. Irak\u2019ta, Afganistan\u2019da ve Libya\u2019da da ayn\u0131 s\u00f6ylem kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n Ancak tarihsel deneyim \u00e7ok nettir: d\u0131\u015f m\u00fcdahaleyle gelen rejim de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri demokrasi \u00fcretmez. \u00c7o\u011fu zaman devlet \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, i\u00e7 sava\u015f ve uzun s\u00fcreli istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k \u00fcretir.<\/p>\n Irak bug\u00fcn h\u00e2l\u00e2 sava\u015f\u0131n yaralar\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. Afganistan yirmi y\u0131ll\u0131k sava\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yeniden Taliban y\u00f6netimine d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Libya ise par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f bir \u00fclke olarak varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmektedir.<\/p>\n Sava\u015f\u0131n Ekonomisi: \u00d6l\u00fcm\u00fcn Maliyeti<\/strong><\/p>\n Sava\u015f yaln\u0131zca siyasi bir mesele de\u011fildir; ayn\u0131 zamanda ekonomik bir mekanizmad\u0131r. Her bomba, her f\u00fcze, her sava\u015f u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131 dev bir sanayi \u00fcretiminin sonucudur.<\/p>\n Silah end\u00fcstrisi d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en k\u00e2rl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerinden biridir. B\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler \u00fcrettikleri silahlar\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc d\u00fcnya \u00fclkelerindeki sava\u015flarda test eder. Bu sava\u015flar ayn\u0131 zamanda yeni silahlar\u0131n pazarlanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bir vitrindir.<\/p>\n Fakir \u00fclkeler sava\u015f\u0131rken zengin \u00fclkeler silah satar.<\/p>\n Sava\u015f\u0131n maliyeti ise ironik bir bi\u00e7imde insanlar\u0131n hayat\u0131 \u00fczerinden hesaplan\u0131r. Bombalar\u0131n maliyeti, u\u00e7aklar\u0131n maliyeti ve operasyonlar\u0131n maliyeti hesapland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan sonu\u00e7 \u015fudur: sava\u015f her zaman pahal\u0131d\u0131r, fakat bu pahal\u0131 maliyet \u00f6len insanlara hi\u00e7bir fayda sa\u011flamaz.<\/p>\n Sava\u015f\u0131n kazanan\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman cephede sava\u015fanlar de\u011fil, silah \u00fcretenlerdir.<\/p>\n Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun Bitmeyen D\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc<\/strong><\/p>\n Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun son yirmi y\u0131l\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda belirgin bir pattern g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Irak i\u015fgaliyle ba\u015flayan s\u00fcre\u00e7 Suriye i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131, Libya\u2019n\u0131n par\u00e7alanmas\u0131 ve Yemen kriziyle devam etti.<\/p>\n Bug\u00fcn \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hedef al\u0131nmas\u0131 bu zincirin yeni halkas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n B\u00f6lge devletleri zay\u0131flat\u0131lmakta, siyasi yap\u0131lar par\u00e7alanmakta ve s\u0131n\u0131rlar giderek daha tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 hale gelmektedir.<\/p>\n Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 yaln\u0131zca askeri bir strateji de\u011fildir; ayn\u0131 zamanda k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7 dengelerinin yeniden \u015fekillendirilmesi anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Zor Dengesi<\/strong><\/p>\n Bu sava\u015f\u0131n etkileri T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da son derece kritiktir. Ankara diplomatik a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda dengeli bir dil kullanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fsa da co\u011frafi ger\u00e7ekler bu dengeyi zorla\u015ft\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye, Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki bu devasa \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma alan\u0131n\u0131n hemen yan\u0131nda yer almaktad\u0131r. \u0130ncirlik ve K\u00fcrecik gibi askeri \u00fcsler, b\u00f6lgesel gerilimin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi do\u011frudan etkileyebilecek bir noktaya ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n Sava\u015f\u0131n olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 yaln\u0131zca g\u00fcvenlik boyutuyla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fildir. Yeni g\u00f6\u00e7 dalgalar\u0131, enerji krizleri ve ekonomik \u015foklar T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi do\u011frudan etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n Demokrasi Bombalarla Gelmez<\/strong><\/p>\n Sava\u015f\u0131n me\u015fruiyetini savunanlar\u0131n en s\u0131k kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 arg\u00fcmanlardan biri \u201cdemokrasi getirme\u201d s\u00f6ylemidir. Ancak modern tarihin en basit ger\u00e7e\u011fi \u015fudur: demokrasi bombard\u0131man u\u00e7aklar\u0131yla gelmez.<\/p>\n Demokrasi toplumlar\u0131n kendi i\u00e7 dinamikleriyle geli\u015fir.<\/p>\n D\u0131\u015f m\u00fcdahaleler \u00e7o\u011fu zaman otoriter rejimleri devirmek yerine daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n Bu nedenle \u0130ran\u2019daki rejimin hatalar\u0131 ya da bask\u0131c\u0131 politikalar\u0131, d\u0131\u015f m\u00fcdahaleyi me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lamaz.<\/p>\n Bir rejimin bask\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131, ba\u015fka bir devletin \u015fehirleri bombalama hakk\u0131n\u0131 do\u011furmaz.<\/p>\n Katillerin D\u00fcnyas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun trajedisi \u00e7o\u011fu zaman iki farkl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bir tarafta otoriter rejimler, di\u011fer tarafta emperyal m\u00fcdahaleler.<\/p>\n Bu ikisinin aras\u0131nda kalan ise halklard\u0131r.<\/p>\n Katiller bazen birbirlerini \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcr. Ama sava\u015f\u0131n bedelini her zaman masum insanlar \u00f6der.<\/p>\n Bir katilin ba\u015fka bir katili \u00f6ld\u00fcrmesi d\u00fcnyay\u0131 daha adil bir yer haline getirmez.<\/p>\n Sonu\u00e7: Yeni Bir F\u0131rt\u0131nan\u0131n Ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n Ali Hamaney\u2019in \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc ya da \u0130ran\u2019daki liderlik yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hedef al\u0131nmas\u0131 bu s\u00fcrecin sonu de\u011fildir. Aksine \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir jeopolitik f\u0131rt\u0131nan\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n Ortado\u011fu yeniden \u015fekilleniyor. G\u00fc\u00e7 dengeleri de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Uluslararas\u0131 hukuk giderek daha fazla ihlal ediliyor.<\/p>\n G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olan\u0131n istedi\u011fini yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni, g\u00fcvenlik de\u011fil kaos \u00fcretir.<\/p>\n Bug\u00fcn \u0130ran\u2019da ba\u015flayan sava\u015f yaln\u0131zca bir \u00fclkenin de\u011fil, b\u00fct\u00fcn b\u00f6lgenin kaderini etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n Ve tarih bize \u015funu \u00f6\u011fretiyor:<\/p>\n Cehennemin kap\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda i\u00e7eri ilk girenler generaller de\u011fil, siviller olur.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Ortado\u011fu’da Sava\u015f\u0131n Ger\u00e7ek Anlam\u0131: \u0130srail-\u0130ran \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, emperyal G\u00fc\u00e7 Rekabeti ve T\u00fcrkiye’nin Tarihsel Stratejisi<\/p>","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":283159,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[286],"tags":[289],"class_list":{"0":"post-283158","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-yazarlar","8":"tag-manset"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283158","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=283158"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283158\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":283161,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283158\/revisions\/283161"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/283159"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=283158"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=283158"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=283158"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}