The secret of winning elections in Turkey lies not in the ballot box, but in the minds of the voters.
\nAnd the first question asked in that mind is:
\n\u201cNot \u201dWho would I vote for?\u201c but \u201dWho would I never vote for?\"<\/p>\n
This reflex is the most powerful determinant of Turkish politics.<\/p>\n
Most voters in Turkey make their choices not out of love, but out of reaction.
\nWhen you vote for a candidate, it is not because you say, \u201cI like this very much\u201d,
\n\u201cHe goes to the polls because he says \u201dI will never give to the other\".<\/p>\n
For a while, opposition to Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan was the main motivation of the opposition.
\nIn another period, the manipulation created by the ruling party against Kemal K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu turned into the biggest advantage of the government with the help of internal party turmoil and foot games.<\/p>\n
A significant portion of the votes cast at the ballot box are not \u201csupport\u201d votes, but \u201cobstruction\u201d votes.<\/p>\n
The basic formula that has worked so far in Turkey is this:<\/p>\n
The least repulsive wins, not the most loved.<\/p>\n
The ideal candidate for the voter:<\/p>\n
Whoever has these qualities can win elections even if he is not charismatic. The most successful leader in this regard is undoubtedly Mr. K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu. Because it is not easy for a leftist candidate to get votes from the right where taboos are very strong. And if a radical leftist gets so many votes from the right, his hand should be kissed, so to speak. Let no one write this off as an ordinary case.<\/p>\n
This is different from the votes of Mansur Yava\u015f or Ekrem \u0130mamo\u011flu. Cumku, these two people have roots on the right, it is natural for them to get votes from the right. But Mr. K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu's success is really admirable in this context and is indeed a peak in the history of the CHP.<\/p>\n
The common political language in society is: \u201cI won't vote for them.\u201d
\n\u201cNever vote for that one.\u201d
\n\u201cThey're all bad, but this is worse.\u201d<\/p>\n
This is not the language of hope; it is the language of avoidance.
\nThe voter most of the time:
\nThey vote not to get better, but to avoid getting worse.<\/p>\n
In some periods, there have been names that have been able to overcome this negative barrier.<\/p>\n
For example, Ekrem \u0130mamo\u011flu was able to partially break this perception.
\nMansur Yava\u015f's landslide local election victory in 2024 is a case in point.<\/p>\n
Because:<\/p>\n
They did not create a perception of threat, they did not use the language of harsh polarization,
\nThey did not frighten large sections of society...<\/p>\n
In order to win politically in Turkey, one must first \u201cnot scare\u201d.<\/p>\n
The opposition usually produces criticism, but not confidence.
\nAs soon as this perception is established in society, the election is lost:<\/p>\n
\u201cIf they come, the country will be in chaos.\u201d
\nNo structure that cannot break this perception can come to power.<\/p>\n
This is the path that governments often follow:<\/p>\n
Make the opponent look like a risk!
\nPush your own mistakes into the background
\n\u201cSend a message of \u201dafter me, uncertainty\"<\/p>\n
This strategy can work even in times of economic crisis.
\nBecause the biggest fear for voters is uncertainty.<\/p>\n
The Real Secret
\nFor a movement that wants to be in power in Turkey, the road map is clear:
\nFirst you have to get off the \u201cno vote\u201d list
\nThen you will reassure
\nYou'll be the last to offer hope<\/p>\n
Most parties get stuck at the initial stage.<\/p>\n
Elections in Turkey seem to be won at the ballot box.
\nIn reality, it is won in the minds.<\/p>\n
And the first filter of that mind is: \u201cWill this hurt me?\u201d
\nWhoever can answer \u201cNo\u201d to this question opens the path to power.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The election will be lost as soon as the public perception is established: \u201cIf they come, the country will be in chaos.\u201d<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":283018,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[286],"tags":[289],"class_list":{"0":"post-283017","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-yazarlar","8":"tag-manset"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283017","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=283017"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283017\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":283019,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283017\/revisions\/283019"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/283018"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=283017"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=283017"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=283017"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}