{"id":281623,"date":"2026-01-18T04:57:45","date_gmt":"2026-01-18T04:57:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/?p=281623"},"modified":"2026-01-18T04:57:45","modified_gmt":"2026-01-18T04:57:45","slug":"silent-collapse-in-chp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/silent-collapse-in-chp\/","title":{"rendered":"CHP's Silent Collapse"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the 2023 presidential election, the CHP, under the leadership of Kemal K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu, received the highest number of votes in the last 20 years - perhaps more.
\n\u201cIt will never come together\u201d<\/strong> called parties came together.
\n\u201cI will never vote for CHP\u201d<\/strong> voters voted for the CHP.<\/p>\n

A historical political rupture has emerged.<\/p>\n

Diyarbak\u0131r\u2019da %72,
\nBitlis\u2019te %51 oy al\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n

These figures are not trivial.
\nBecause there is a chronic distance against CHP in these provinces.<\/p>\n

Normally in this sociology \u201cI will never vote for CHP\u201d<\/strong> is a very high percentage of voters.<\/p>\n

And political science tells us this:<\/p>\n

\u201cI will never vote\u201d<\/strong> a voter who says \u2019yes\" is only %2-5 likely to vote for that party in normal times.<\/p>\n

This ratio is not fixed.
\nDuring periods of political upheaval, %8 can be as high as 12.
\nBut in normal times it is almost like a frozen mass.<\/p>\n

This is the Electorate;
\nHard Negative Partisanship (Hard Negative Partisanship)
\nis defined as.<\/p>\n

Features:
\n- \u201cI would never vote for party X\u201d
\n- Identity-based refusal
\n- Emotional-political belonging, not rational<\/p>\n

This voter is not undecided.
\nStable opposition.<\/p>\n

Hence this group in Western literature:<\/p>\n

\u201cFrozen voters\u201d<\/em> (Frozen voter).<\/p>\n

This mass does not normally change.
\nWhy?<\/p>\n

Because this is a party preference for the voter:<\/p>\n

It is not a program, it is an identity.<\/p>\n

From this point on:
\n- Economy
\n- Candidate
\n- Campaign<\/p>\n

alone is not decisive.<\/p>\n

This is why what Kemal K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu is building in 2023 is not an ordinary vote transition,
\nis a historical political rupture.<\/p>\n

Kemal K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu will not vote for the CHP under normal conditions. \u201cfrozen mass\u201d<\/strong> solved.<\/p>\n

This was a strategic threshold for the CHP.<\/p>\n

March 31st Local Elections are the Real Dynamics;<\/p>\n

In the 2024 local elections, two mechanisms worked:<\/p>\n

1. Returned Frozen Voter<\/strong><\/p>\n

This audience voted for the CHP in 2023,
\nwhen he saw that his candidate could not win locally,
\nto the CHP candidate who is likely to win.<\/p>\n

If this psychological threshold had not been crossed in 2023, this behavior would not have emerged in 2024.<\/p>\n

2. Negatively Politicized Voter<\/strong><\/p>\n

This is the voter:<\/p>\n

\u201cMy candidate cannot win, but neither should that candidate\u201d<\/p>\n

and votes for the strongest candidate in the opposing bloc.<\/p>\n

However, the frozen mass must be thawed before this effect can occur.<\/p>\n

Why did the CHP fail to preserve this strategic advantage?<\/p>\n

On March 31st
\nCumhur ittifak\u0131 %39,5
\nCHP %37,8 ald\u0131.
\nTwo years passed.<\/p>\n

This vote could not be protected.<\/p>\n

In our country, which has a presidential government system, winning the presidential election is considered more important than the parliamentary election. According to the surveys, the Ak Parti is in the % 30 MHP %9 band, while the CHP is in the % 30 band.<\/p>\n

However, the basic rule in presidential systems is this:<\/p>\n

The opposition increases its votes as the government is worn down.<\/p>\n

In Turkey, the picture is reversed:
\n- The ruling party is losing votes
\n- The main opposition is also losing votes<\/p>\n

This is abnormal in terms of political science.<\/p>\n

Ekonomi %60,
\nAdalet %20 d\u00fczeyinde sorunken,
\nthe main opposition needs to grow.<\/p>\n

But it is not growing.<\/p>\n

So this is what the voters are saying:<\/p>\n

\u201cI am not satisfied with the government, but I don't trust the opposition either.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

This is a systemic crisis of opposition.<\/p>\n

The Real Danger Shrinking the CHP: Sabotage of Strategic Sociology<\/p>\n

Corruption allegations in municipalities and internal party rivalries are of course effective.
\nThese can be partly out of control.<\/p>\n

But there are some issues that are directly under the responsibility of the headquarters.<\/p>\n

And there is a very dangerous picture here.<\/p>\n

Discourse Alienating Kurdish Voters: The Case of \u00dcmit Dikbay\u0131r<\/p>\n

It is no coincidence that \u00dcmit Dikbay\u0131r, who recently joined the CHP, said the following:<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is no separate political subject called \u2018Kurdish people\u2019 in Turkey.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

This statement is this:
\n- Recognize Kurds as a cultural element
\n- Refusal as a political subject<\/p>\n

This is a clear denial of identity for Kurdish voters.<\/p>\n

So the question is:<\/p>\n

Why didn't he say that when he was in the IYI Party?<\/p>\n

The answer is simple:<\/p>\n

Because the CHP is the target.<\/p>\n

Kurdish voters turn to CHP for the first time thanks to Kemal K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu
\nre-cooling.<\/p>\n

This is political engineering.<\/p>\n

Discourse that alienates Alevi voters: The Case of Kayseri Provincial Chairman<\/p>\n

The following public statement is even more grave:<\/p>\n

\u201cThe more I got to know Alevis, the more I admired MHP members.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

This is the promise:
\n- Denigrates Alevi citizens
\n- It is a statement that dynamits the historical sociology of the CHP<\/p>\n

Here, too, the goal is clear:<\/p>\n

Two strategic backbones of the CHP:
\n- Kurdish voters
\n- Alevi voters<\/p>\n

are being destroyed at the same time.<\/p>\n

Question;<\/p>\n

The common point in these two cases is this:<\/p>\n

CHP Headquarters has gone silent.
\nMr. Ozgur Ozel is silent.<\/p>\n

No discipline.
\nThere is no political reflex.
\nNo strategic mind.<\/p>\n

But these statements are no ordinary gaffes.<\/p>\n

These are:
\nThey are the landmines that scattered the coalition of historical voters that the CHP built in 2023.<\/p>\n

Conclusion: Who Does Ozgur Ozel's CHP Serve?<\/p>\n

CHP today:
\n- Thawing frozen voters, K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu leaves his doctorate
\n- Silent on discourses that alienate Kurdish and Alevi voters
\n- Power fails to grow even as it frays<\/p>\n

If this picture is not a failure of governance, it is a serious political shortsightedness.<\/p>\n

And the question is now legitimate:<\/p>\n

Is the CHP led by \u00d6zg\u00fcr \u00d6zel trying to come to power?,
\nOr is it making the government's job easier?<\/p>\n

Because sometimes politics is not only about what is done,
\nIt is also guided by what is not done.<\/p>\n

And this is the biggest problem in the CHP today.<\/p>\n

\u201cFortune comes to the door, it takes wisdom to let it in.\u201d<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Who Does Ozgur Ozel's CHP Serve?<\/p>","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":281624,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[286],"tags":[15,78,289,288],"class_list":{"0":"post-281623","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-yazarlar","8":"tag-chp","9":"tag-kemal-kilicdaroglu","10":"tag-manset","11":"tag-ozgur-ozel"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/281623","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/40"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=281623"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/281623\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":281626,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/281623\/revisions\/281626"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/281624"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=281623"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=281623"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=281623"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}