\u201cThe repercussions of the CHP's decision not to give a member to the parliamentary delegation that will go to \u0130mral\u0131 to meet Abdullah \u00d6calan as part of the \u201dTurkey without Terror\" project continue. Meanwhile, the Yeni Yol Group, which supports the process and is a member of the parliamentary commission, also did not give a member to the delegation, but this decision was not discussed in the public opinion as much as the CHP's decision.<\/p>\n
Judging by the reactions, there are those who find the CHP's decision right and those who find it wrong.<\/p>\n
Especially the DEM Party and its grassroots were disappointed by the CHP's decision. As a matter of fact, Pervin Buldan's post, which she first wrote and then deleted, \u2018The main opposition party is the DEM Party. Period.\u201d was the peak of this reaction.<\/p>\n
So what was the rationale behind the CHP's decision? Which factors influenced the decision?<\/p>\n
There is a multi-layered answer to this question. CHP took this decision for both strategic and tactical reasons.<\/p>\n
Let's start at the beginning of the process.<\/p>\n
Devlet Bah\u00e7eli's statement on October 22, 2024 \u201cIf his isolation is lifted, let him come and speak at the DEM Party meeting in Parliament. Let him shout that terrorism is over and the organization is disbanded\u201d<\/em><\/strong> One day after his call, CHP Chairman \u00d6zg\u00fcr \u00d6zel, \u201cMr. Devlet, I'm going one step further, I'm raising my hand, I'm offering a state to the Kurds\u201d<\/em><\/strong> In this way, he both supported the process and signaled that the CHP was ready for further demands in the process initiated by Bah\u00e7eli.<\/p>\n However, over time, there have been fluctuations in the CHP's approach to the Turkey Without Terror process.<\/p>\n The first break came after President Erdo\u011fan's prolonged silence in the face of Bah\u00e7eli's call. At the time, the CHP leadership often \u201cWhy is Erdo\u011fan silent, let him come out and explain whether he supports the process or not\u201d<\/em> calls came in.<\/p>\n This was undoubtedly due to the CHP's confusion about the \u2018Terror Free Turkey\u2019 process.<\/p>\n At the beginning of the process, the dominant view in the CHP was that this process was a tactical political step taken by Tayyip Erdo\u011fan to become president for one more term. With this step, Erdo\u011fan would both remove the obstacle to his candidacy by obtaining the constitutional amendment he wanted or a decision to renew the parliamentary elections with the support of the DEM Party, and regain the support of Kurdish voters who had gradually distanced themselves from him and his party since 2015.<\/p>\n The second, non-dominant view in the CHP was that the \u2018Turkey without Terror\u2019 project was a state policy and should be supported.<\/p>\n But in this case, another \u2018problem\u2019 arose.<\/p>\n If the process was successful, who would get the biggest share of the \u2018political benefits\u2019?<\/p>\n The strong belief that President Erdo\u011fan would reap the biggest share of the benefits has led to an ambivalent attitude towards the process on the part of the CHP and its media.<\/p>\n In fact, it was precisely for this reason that MHP leader Devlet Bah\u00e7eli was chosen as the architect of the \u2018Turkey without Terror\u2019 project.<\/p>\n Bah\u00e7eli was not chosen just to convince the nationalist base. He was chosen because he was the only political leader who would not take into account the \u2018political benefits\u2019 if the process succeeded or the \u2018political costs' if it failed.<\/p>\n Don't be misunderstood, this is not because \u2018other leaders think about their political future, Bah\u00e7eli thinks about the country\u2019.<\/p>\n In the new system established with the constitutional amendment in 2017, the task assigned to the TSK by the old regime was given to the MHP.<\/p>\n What was that mission? \u2018Protecting and balancing the regime\u2019<\/p>\n The asymmetrical power of Devlet Bah\u00e7eli, regardless of his vote, is directly related to this reconstruction of the regime.<\/p>\n Nitekim MHP, DSP’nin % 22.19 oyla birinci oldu\u011fu 1999 se\u00e7imlerinde %17.98 oy alarak koalisyon orta\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011fu 56. H\u00fck\u00fcmette sahip oldu\u011fu g\u00fcc\u00fcn kat be kat \u00fcst\u00fcnde bir g\u00fcce, sadece %10’luk oy oran\u0131 ve ‘Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 H\u00fck\u00fcmet Sistemi’ gibi \u015feklen Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n tek g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131\u011f\u0131 sistemde ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n Let's close the long parenthesis and return to the CHP's decision not to include a member in the \u0130mral\u0131 delegation.<\/p>\n During the 18th meeting of the parliamentary commission on sending a delegation to \u0130mral\u0131, CHP members left the meeting.<\/p>\n Deputy Group Deputy Chairman Murat Emir, one of the CHP's commission members, explained his party's decision not to include a member in the \u0130mral\u0131 delegation.<\/p>\n In his statement, Emir said:<\/p>\n \u201cAt a time like this, when we need to find solutions to these problems in order to ensure our internal peace, our nation does not consent to the whole issue being squeezed into the issue of whether or not to go to \u0130mral\u0131. Defining this decision as a sine qua non, as a historic crossroads and as the only option is incompatible with the purpose of the Commission's establishment. ..<\/em><\/p>\n ... Instead of only 5 MPs going to the Island without even the Chairperson of our Commission, it is possible to manage an easier, more participatory and more non-controversial process by utilizing technological means...\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n He went on to explain the other reasons for this stance as follows:<\/p>\n \u201cWe would like to remind you: Today, the Republican People's Party, which everyone is waiting to see what it will say, is facing a closure case. 16 elected mayors and the Presidential Candidate are in prison. Women, children and families are being persecuted. But despite everything, our Party remains in this commission, hoping for democracy, peace and a solution. If the hopes for peace of this nation are once again wasted by personal ambitions and ambitions as it was 10 years ago, the Republican People's Party will continue to stand firmly where it stands.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n The CHP's decision was criticized by the Kurdish political movement, liberal circles that have recently joined the CHP, and some circles within the CHP that advocated for their party to act more courageously and be a playmaker in the solution of the Kurdish issue.<\/p>\n On the other hand, all eyes turned to the statement from Silivri after the verdict.<\/p>\n What would Ekrem \u0130mamo\u011flu, the CHP's presidential candidate on paper, say about this decision?<\/p>\n As a matter of fact, the silence that lasted for 2 days after the CHP's decision created expectations that \u2018there would be a criticism of the decision from Silivri\u2019.<\/p>\n On November 23, the Presidential Candidate Office (@CAOIletisim) account opened for Ekrem \u0130mamo\u011flu made a statement regarding the CHP's decision.<\/p>\n In his 3-page statement supporting the CHP's decision, \u0130mamo\u011flu explained his reasoning as follows:<\/p>\n \u201cThe reasons for our party's non-participation in the commission's proposal to \u201cmeet Abdullah \u00d6calan in Imrali Prison\u201d should be well understood. As CHP, we have been in favor of the solution of the Kurdish issue since day one and we will continue to do so. However, we do not find it right to contribute to the continuation of the process in ways and methods that do not receive the approval of the majority of the nation. Unless democratization steps are taken to show that the government takes the process seriously and the nation is made a part of the process, the CHP will continue to contribute to the process in a cautious manner.<\/em><\/p>\n The imprisonment of many mayors and politicians, the trustees appointed to municipalities and the politics of hostility towards the opposition, the non-recognition of ECtHR and Constitutional Court judgments and The approach of Mr. President, who has refrained from strongly defending the process,<\/strong> are the biggest obstacles to this critical process. The way, method and medicine for the process is democratization and a democratic solution based on equal citizenship.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n Despite the CHP administration's statement, Ekrem \u0130mamo\u011flu's statement, and even the AK Party, which is the main contractor of the project \u201cthis is a supra-political issue\u201d<\/strong> But it clearly shows the reality that politicians cannot look at any issue above politics.<\/p>\n I have explained above why I exclude Bah\u00e7eli from this picture.<\/p>\n Just when it was being said that \u201cCHP's \u0130mral\u0131 decision was taken with the full harmony of CHP administration and \u0130mamo\u011flu\u201d, a completely different development took place.<\/p>\n According to a report by Ceren Bayar in T24, which has not been denied so far;\u00a0\u201cEkrem \u0130mamo\u011flu, the arrested presidential candidate of the CHP, initially expressed the opinion that a visit to \u0130mral\u0131 was necessary, but after talks he said he would respect the party's decision.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n Well, when we look at the CHP's practices since November 2023, I leave it to the readers' discretion how possible it is for the current party administration to take a decision that Ekrem \u0130mamo\u011flu does not agree with and for \u0130mamo\u011flu to agree with this decision.<\/p>\n Then why did \u00d6zg\u00fcr \u00d6zel, who said \u201cI raise my hand and promise the Kurds a state\u201d, take an opposing stance on the \u0130mral\u0131 meeting, which all interlocutors agreed on for the continuation of the process?<\/p>\n Let me first state my opinion and then I will explain my reasons.<\/p>\n In my opinion, this decision is not \u2019a decision taken by the CHP administration that \u0130mamo\u011flu had to comply with\u2018 as claimed in the news article in T24, on the contrary, it is a decision taken by \u0130mamo\u011flu in Silivri that the CHP administration had to comply with.<\/p>\n The rationale is purely political tactics.<\/p>\n Let's go back a little bit.<\/p>\n \u00d6zg\u00fcr \u00d6zel was asked the question \u201cWill you be a presidential candidate?\u201d after the CHP congress in which he was elected CHP chairman, \u201cThere are two strikers in the team right now. One is Mansur Yava\u015f and the other is Ekrem \u0130mamo\u011flu. But many new figures are also shining. It is important to build the best team from these names. When a penalty is awarded in the last minute of the match, the coach does not say, \u2018Let me take it\u2019. He'll give it to his most in-form player. \u201c<\/em><\/strong> he replied.<\/p>\n This sentence not only gave a perspective on the CHP's method of nominating a presidential candidate, but also condemned Kemal K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu's candidacy for the presidency in 2023 (even though that candidacy was agreed upon by \u00d6zg\u00fcr \u00d6zel and the entire party leadership of that day).<\/p>\n Of course, in politics, the maxim \u2018yesterday is yesterday, today is today\u2019, although it is attributed to S\u00fcleyman Demirel, is in fact an immutable rule.<\/p>\n As a matter of fact, in time, Ekrem \u0130mamo\u011flu's candidacy became impossible, first with the cancellation of his diploma and political ban, then with the IBB investigation and arrest warrant.<\/p>\n Although the CHP leadership referred to \u0130mamo\u011flu as \u2018our presidential candidate\u2019, alternative formulas started to come to the fore over time.<\/p>\n Actually, the alternative candidate was obvious in this situation. When one of the strikers was out of the game, Mansur Yava\u015f was left as the \u2018striker to score the penalty\u2019.<\/p>\n However, the process did not work like that. As the possibility of \u0130mamo\u011flu's candidacy weakened, the possibility of \u00d6zg\u00fcr \u00d6zel's candidacy began to strengthen. Some polling companies close to the CHP started to serve polls showing that \u00d6zel received more votes than Mansur Yava\u015f against Erdo\u011fan.<\/p>\n The concert investigation into Mansur Yava\u015f has further strengthened the hand of those in and around the CHP who support \u00d6zel's candidacy.<\/p>\n For the first time in the 5th month of his detention, Imamo\u011flu admitted that there could be a candidate other than him:<\/p>\n \u201cI am not naive. If I am officially banned, the democratic opposition must still come together. If another candidate is needed to move forward, that person must continue our shared vision for justice, prosperity and peace\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n This statement did not mention a name, nor did it hint at Mansur Yava\u015f, who was described as the second striker.<\/p>\n \u201cThe question \u201dwhat does this have to do with the CHP's decision on \u0130mral\u0131?\" must have come to your mind, and it is natural to do so.<\/p>\n At the beginning of this article, we pointed out that one of the main concerns of politics is who will get how much share of the \u2018political benefits\u2019 that will emerge if the \u2018Terror Free Turkey\u2019 process is successful.<\/p>\n \u00d6zg\u00fcr \u00d6zel's recent policies, his support for the process and his rhetoric of \u2018I promise you a state\u2019 to Kurdish voters have gradually increased his support and popularity in this neighborhood.<\/p>\n On the other hand, Mansur Yava\u015f's political identity and his hesitant attitude towards the process made \u00d6zg\u00fcr \u00d6zel stronger in the search for a \u2018winning candidate\u2019 against Mansur Yava\u015f for the CHP, which is seeking the votes of Kurdish voters for the presidential election.<\/p>\n Undoubtedly, the most important point for Ekrem \u0130mamo\u011flu is for the CHP to enter the elections with a candidate who will win in the equation in which he is not a candidate. The only option for \u0130mamo\u011flu, who thinks that his detention in Silivri and political ban will not end as long as the People's Alliance continues to rule, is a CHP government.<\/p>\n The priority of Imamo\u011flu's politics at this stage is to regain his freedom.<\/p>\n And then to take the presidency, which he aspires to.<\/p>\n So why do I think Imamo\u011flu is the one who made this decision that will lead to confronting Kurdish voters instead of getting their support?<\/p>\n That's where the tail of the cat is breaking.<\/p>\n Although \u00d6zg\u00fcr \u00d6zel's popularity has increased recently, all objective surveys show that Mansur Yava\u015f has a better chance of winning against Erdo\u011fan.<\/p>\n In fact, Imamo\u011flu's move is based on the simple equation that the CHP's decision to \u2018not go to \u0130mral\u0131\u2019 caused \u00d6zg\u00fcr \u00d6zel's favorable ratings among Kurdish voters to be erased with a single move, while the nationalist votes that opposed the process and turned to the \u0130Y\u0130 Party and Zafer Party after the CHP's decision to join the commission returned to the CHP.<\/p>\n With this move, \u0130mamo\u011flu has also paved the way again for Mansur Yava\u015f to be the strongest candidate for the CHP in the elections that I think will be held in November 2027.<\/p>\n While the first reason for this is undoubtedly \u2018to ensure electoral victory\u2019, the tactical move was also made with the next phase in mind.<\/p>\n As you know, Ekrem \u0130mamo\u011flu's political support is not largely due to the policies he has put forward, \u201cThe political leader who will defeat Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u201d<\/strong> as a political candidate. Otherwise, how else can one explain the fact that everyone from socialist parties to fugitive FET\u00d6 members lined up behind \u0130mamo\u011flu?.<\/p>\n So in a scenario where \u00d6zg\u00fcr \u00d6zel wins against Tayyip Erdo\u011fan in the elections to be held in 2027, would Ekrem \u0130mamo\u011flu win his freedom? Most likely.<\/p>\n But does he have a chance of becoming president? I think not even % 1.<\/p>\n As a matter of fact, Imamo\u011flu knows best that \u00d6zg\u00fcr \u00d6zel, who has already defeated Erdo\u011fan at the ballot box and is 3 years younger than him, will not step aside and say to \u0130mamo\u011flu \u2018come and run the country\u2019 with this power he will gain.<\/p>\n Mansur Yava\u015f, on the other hand, is a political actor who, even if he wins against Erdo\u011fan and is elected as the president, is expected to end his political life after a maximum of one term as the \u201c13th president of the Republic of Turkey who returned the country to the democratic parliamentary system\u201d.<\/p>\n Imamo\u011flu recently told Mansur Yava\u015f \u201cHe should not give up on his candidacy\u201d<\/strong> <\/em>If we also take into account the claim that he sent a message, we can see more clearly that Ekrem \u0130mamo\u011flu's signature is under the CHP's \u0130mral\u0131 decision.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" With this move, \u0130mamo\u011flu has also paved the way again for Mansur Yava\u015f to be the strongest candidate for the CHP in the elections that I think will be held in November 2027.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":280086,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[286],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-280085","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-yazarlar"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/280085","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=280085"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/280085\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":280096,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/280085\/revisions\/280096"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/280086"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=280085"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=280085"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=280085"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}