Suriye\u2019de 61 y\u0131ldan beri s\u00fcren Baas y\u00f6netimi d\u00fcn itibar\u0131yla sona erdi. 24 y\u0131ld\u0131r y\u00f6netimde bulunan Be\u015far Esad, 2011\u2019de ba\u015flayan ayaklanman\u0131n 13. y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00f6netimi terk etti. \u015eu an ailesiyle birlikte s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 Rusya\u2019da oldu\u011fu biliniyor.
\nHerkes, 13 y\u0131l boyunca her t\u00fcrl\u00fc sald\u0131r\u0131ya direnen Suriye Ordusu\u2019nun bir anda direni\u015fi neden b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. 13 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce Halep\u2019e y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Suriye Ordusu, neredeyse sava\u015fmadan b\u00fct\u00fcn mevzilerini terk etti. Suriye\u2019nin neden \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc veya bundan sonra olacaklara dair g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerime bu yaz\u0131da yer vermeyece\u011fim \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu tek bir yaz\u0131ya yetmeyecek kadar karma\u015f\u0131k bir konu.<\/p>\n
Olay\u0131n bizi ilgilendiren as\u0131l boyutu ise T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerindeki etkileridir. \u015e\u00fcphe yok ki son ya\u015fananlar T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi derinden etkileyecek. Nedenlerini s\u0131ralamaya ba\u015flarsak, Erdo\u011fan ve taraftarlar\u0131 bir kez daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00f6zg\u00fcven kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Taraftarlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fcnde Erdo\u011fan, bir fatihtir!
\nBu durum, muhaliflere kar\u015f\u0131 zaten \u00fcstenci bir dil benimsemi\u015f olan Erdo\u011fan ve di\u011fer AKP\u2019li yetkililerin s\u00f6ylemlerini daha da sertle\u015ftirmesine neden olabilir. Ancak bunun i\u00e7 kamuoyuna yans\u0131malar\u0131 olumlu olmayabilir. Erdo\u011fan ve taraftarlar\u0131n\u0131n sertle\u015fen dili, siyasetteki gerilimi art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Erdo\u011fan, zaferini tescil etmek i\u00e7in yak\u0131n zamanda \u015eam\u2019a gidip Emevi Camisi\u2019nde vaat etti\u011fi o me\u015fhur namaz\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Bu durumun, yerel se\u00e7imlerdeki ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131k sonras\u0131nda morali bozulan AKP te\u015fkilatlar\u0131na da moral verece\u011fi kesindir. Suriye\u2019de Esad y\u00f6netiminin gitmesiyle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de say\u0131lar\u0131 3,5 milyon olan Suriyelilerin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n \u00fclkelerine d\u00f6nmesi, Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131 rahatlatacak ve muhalefetin en \u00f6nemli ele\u015ftirilerinden birinin etkisizle\u015fmesini sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.
\nAmbargolar\u0131n kalkmas\u0131 halinde Suriye\u2019nin yeniden in\u015fa s\u00fcrecinde T\u00fcrk \u015firketlerinin \u00f6nemli kazan\u00e7lar elde etmesi muhtemeldir. Son s\u00fcre\u00e7te YPG\u2019nin de i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fu SGD\u2019nin Suriye\u2019deki h\u00e2kimiyet alan\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclse de bu durum ge\u00e7ici olacakt\u0131r. Bir s\u00fcre sonra SGD i\u00e7erisindeki Arap unsurlarla K\u00fcrtler aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin artmas\u0131 ve YPG\u2019nin h\u00e2kimiyet alan\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131 muhtemeldir.<\/p>\n
B\u00fct\u00fcn bu g\u00f6zlemler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, en az\u0131ndan k\u0131sa vadede Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n olan bitenden k\u00e2rl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda \u015f\u00fcphe yok. Bunun T\u00fcrk siyasetine olan yans\u0131mas\u0131 ise yukar\u0131da belirtti\u011fimiz gibi Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n dilinin daha da sertle\u015fmesi \u015feklinde olmas\u0131 muhtemel sonu\u00e7lar aras\u0131nda. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc 2010\u2019da ba\u015flayan Arap Bahar\u0131, nas\u0131l Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n dilini ve s\u00f6ylemlerini sertle\u015ftirmi\u015f, daha da \u0130slami bir tona b\u00fcr\u00fcnmesini sa\u011flad\u0131ysa, yanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n nezdinde \u2018Fatih Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n dili de o g\u00fcnleri aratmayacakt\u0131r.
\nErdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n artan etkinli\u011fi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda liderli\u011fi tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 olan CHP Genel Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u00d6zg\u00fcr \u00d6zel ile \u00fczerinde yarg\u0131 tehdidi sallanan Ekrem \u0130mamo\u011flu\u2019nun ne kadar varl\u0131k g\u00f6sterebilece\u011fi ise ayr\u0131 bir konudur.<\/p>\n
Tabii ki, b\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli tahminler oldu\u011funu unutmamak gerekiyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc siyasette, hele de Ortado\u011fu siyasetinde, bir y\u0131l sonras\u0131n\u0131 dahi kestirmek \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7. Suriye\u2019nin bug\u00fcn\u00fc de yak\u0131n gelece\u011fi de d\u00fcn\u00fcnden daha berrak de\u011fil.
\n\u201cBir ipte iki cambaz oynamaz\u201d misali bir\u00e7o\u011fu radikal dincilerden olu\u015fan muhaliflerin yak\u0131n zaman i\u00e7inde \u00fclke y\u00f6netiminde bir g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fccadelesine girmesi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz.
\nKeza \u015fimdilik yap\u0131lan \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalara kar\u015f\u0131n yak\u0131n s\u00fcrede \u00fclkede az\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131 hedef alabilecek sald\u0131r\u0131lar olas\u0131.
\n\u0130srail f\u0131rsat kaybetmeden s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yak\u0131n Suriye topraklar\u0131nda kontrol\u00fc ele ge\u00e7irmi\u015f vaziyette.
\nSaddam H\u00fcseyin ve Muammer Kaddafi devrildi\u011finde de \u00e7ok sevinen olmu\u015ftu ama sonras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan vahim olaylar herkesin hat\u0131ras\u0131nda.
\nUmar\u0131m Suriye daha fazla ac\u0131, sava\u015f ya\u015famadan huzura kavu\u015fur ama siyasetten az \u00e7ok anlayan herkes bunun kolay olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131nda.
\nSonu\u00e7 olarak, madem konumuz Suriye ve olanlar\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye olas\u0131 etkileri, yaz\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 bir Arap atas\u00f6z\u00fcyle bitirelim: “Hele \u015fu toz duman bir da\u011f\u0131ls\u0131n, bindi\u011fin at m\u0131 e\u015fek mi anlars\u0131n.”
\nEvet son geli\u015fmeler Erdo\u011fan i\u00e7in yeni bir r\u00fczgar yaratabilir ama se\u00e7im g\u00fcn\u00fc geldi\u011finde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de son s\u00f6z\u00fc ise ekonomi s\u00f6yleyecek\u2026<\/p>\n
<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Suriye\u2019de 61 y\u0131ldan beri s\u00fcren Baas y\u00f6netimi d\u00fcn itibar\u0131yla sona erdi. 24 y\u0131ld\u0131r y\u00f6netimde bulunan Be\u015far Esad, 2011\u2019de ba\u015flayan ayaklanman\u0131n 13. y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00f6netimi terk etti. \u015eu an ailesiyle birlikte s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 Rusya\u2019da oldu\u011fu biliniyor. Herkes, 13 y\u0131l boyunca her t\u00fcrl\u00fc sald\u0131r\u0131ya direnen Suriye Ordusu\u2019nun bir anda direni\u015fi neden b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. 13 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce Halep\u2019e y\u00f6nelik […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":279137,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[286],"tags":[15,78,288],"class_list":{"0":"post-279135","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-yazarlar","8":"tag-chp","9":"tag-kemal-kilicdaroglu","10":"tag-ozgur-ozel"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/279135","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=279135"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/279135\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":279138,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/279135\/revisions\/279138"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/279137"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=279135"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=279135"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=279135"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}