Son y\u0131llarda f\u0131rt\u0131nalar, seller, s\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131 ve kurakl\u0131k pek \u00e7ok ki\u015finin ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131 yitirmesine neden olurken, ekonomik anlamda da ciddi bir hasara yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Yeni bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ise, insan kaynakl\u0131 k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nmaya do\u011frudan atfedilebilecek artan maliyetlere ili\u015fkin k\u00fcresel bir tablo ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n
Rakam y\u0131ldan y\u0131la \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fse de, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hava olaylar\u0131n\u0131n 2000\u2019den 2019\u2019a kadar olan s\u00fcre\u00e7te y\u0131lda ortalama 140 milyar dolarl\u0131k hasara neden oldu\u011fu tespit edildi. En son veriler, 2022\u2019de maliyetin 280 milyar dolar oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar, \u00f6zellikle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli \u00fclkelerde veri eksikli\u011finin, rakamlar\u0131n ciddi \u015fekilde eksik tahmin edilmesi anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Mahsul verimindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ve deniz seviyesinin y\u00fckselmesi gibi ek iklim maliyetleri de bu tabloya dahil edilmedi.<\/p>\n
Genel iklim maliyetlerinin en y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu y\u0131llar, s\u0131cak hava dalgas\u0131n\u0131n Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 vurdu\u011fu 2003 y\u0131l\u0131yd\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca, 2008\u2019de Nargis Kas\u0131rgas\u0131 Myanmar\u2019\u0131 vurdu\u011funda, 2010\u2019da kurakl\u0131k Somali\u2019yi etkiledi\u011finde ve s\u0131cak hava dalgas\u0131 Rusya\u2019da ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da maliyetler y\u00fcksekti. M\u00fclk de\u011ferlerinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu ABD\u2019yi kas\u0131rgalar\u0131n vurdu\u011fu 2005 ve 2017 y\u0131llar\u0131nda ise maddi hasarlar daha y\u00fcksekti.<\/p>\n
Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hava olaylar\u0131n\u0131 ne kadar t\u0131rmand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin verileri, kay\u0131plara ili\u015fkin ekonomik verilerle birle\u015ftirerek tahminleri olu\u015fturdu. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada ayr\u0131ca a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hava olaylar\u0131ndan etkilenen insan say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7te 1,2 milyar oldu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re, hasar maliyetlerinin \u00fc\u00e7te ikisini can kay\u0131plar\u0131, \u00fc\u00e7te birini ise mal ve m\u00fclk kay\u0131plar\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Harvey Kas\u0131rgas\u0131 ve Nargis Kas\u0131rgas\u0131 gibi f\u0131rt\u0131nalar, iklim maliyetlerinin \u00fc\u00e7te ikisinden sorumluyken, maliyetlerin %16\u2019s\u0131 s\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131ndan, %10\u2019u ise sel ve kurakl\u0131ktan kaynaklan\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n
Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar, y\u00f6ntemlerinin, BM\u2019nin 2022\u2019deki iklim zirvesinde yoksul \u00fclkelerdeki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hava olaylar\u0131n\u0131n neden oldu\u011fu hasar\u0131 telafi etmek amac\u0131yla kurulan kay\u0131p ve zarar fonunda ne kadar finansmana ihtiya\u00e7 duyuldu\u011funu hesaplamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u00c7al\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 meslekta\u015f\u0131 Rebecca Newman ile birlikte y\u00fcr\u00fcten Yeni Zelanda\u2019daki Wellington Victoria \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nden Profes\u00f6r Ilan Noy, \u201cY\u0131ll\u0131k 140 milyar dolar her \u015feyden \u00f6nce b\u00fcy\u00fck bir rakam. \u0130kincisi, bunu iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin maliyetinin standart \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcyle (bilgisayar modellerini kullanarak) kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda, bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerin iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin etkisini hafife ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\u201d<\/p>\n
Noy, ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131 yitiren insan say\u0131s\u0131 veya ekonomik hasara ili\u015fkin hi\u00e7bir verinin bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok say\u0131da a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hava olay\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi ve ekledi \u201c140 milyar dolarl\u0131k man\u015fet rakam\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yetersiz bir ifade oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor\u201d \u00d6rne\u011fin, s\u0131cak hava dalgas\u0131 \u00f6l\u00fcm verilerinin yaln\u0131zca Avrupa\u2019da mevcut oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi: \u201cSahra alt\u0131 Afrika\u2019n\u0131n tamam\u0131nda s\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131ndan ka\u00e7 ki\u015finin \u00f6ld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dair hi\u00e7bir fikrimiz yok.\u201d<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eiddeti ve s\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 artan f\u0131rt\u0131nalar, seller ve s\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131, 2000\u2019den 2019\u2019a kadarki d\u00f6nemde en az 2,8 trilyon dolarl\u0131k hasara neden oldu.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":277909,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-277032","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-gundem"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/277032","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=277032"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/277032\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/277909"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=277032"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=277032"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=277032"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}