The biggest battles of the modern world are no longer fought with visible tanks, front lines or artillery. The real battles are often fought along lines invisible on maps, inside data flows and energy corridors. Today's geopolitics is shaped by the routes of oil tankers, the deserts crossed by pipelines and the risk calculations of insurance markets. To understand the wars of our time, it is therefore necessary to look not only at military fronts, but also at energy infrastructures and trade routes.
The Middle East is today at the center of this unseen war. Iran's possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Israel's regional operations, the energy strategies of the Gulf states and the maritime security doctrines of the great powers all revolve around one big question: control of global energy flows.
There is a thesis that has been frequently repeated in public opinion recently. According to this narrative, even if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, the world energy system will not be plunged into a major crisis. Because Saudi Arabia's East-West (Petroline) pipeline will be activated, oil will be transported to the Red Sea and the global flow will largely continue.
At first glance, this narrative sounds logical. However, a closer look at the issue reveals a much more complex and fragile picture. Because what is being described here is actually not to solve the crisis, but at most to postpone part of it it means.
Geopolitics of the Energy Age
- For a century, oil reserves were the main factor determining the fate of the Middle East. But in the 21st century, the nature of the energy war has changed. It is no longer just about control of oil fields, control of energy flow has become.
It is not enough for a country to produce oil. That oil needs to reach world markets safely. This is why modern energy geopolitics is based on three main stages:
- production
- transportation infrastructure
- maritime trade and logistics
When one of these three links breaks, the energy system is severely shaken.
This is precisely where most of the crises in the Middle East are centered. Because a significant part of the world oil trade depends on a few narrow gateways. In energy geopolitics “choke points” is referred to as.
The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical of these points.
Around a fifth of the world's oil trade passes through this narrow passage every day. A significant portion of the global LNG trade is also transported through this route. Hormuz is therefore not just a regional sea passage, but one of the most sensitive nerve endings of the global energy system.
The closure of this strait could affect not only Gulf oil exports, but the entire global economic chain.
Petroline Legend
The most frequently cited argument in the Hormuz debate is Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline. This line connects the oil fields in the east of the country to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
Its theoretical capacity is put at around seven million barrels per day. Some commentators therefore argue that even if Hormuz is closed, this line could largely maintain the global flow of oil.
But this interpretation misses several important facts.
First of all, the amount of oil passing through Hormuz is about twenty million barrels per day. This means that even if the Petroline line operates at full capacity, it can only compensate for a fraction of the global loss.
More importantly, there is a significant gap between the theoretical capacity and the actual capacity that can be used in a crisis. Energy infrastructures often do not operate at maximum capacity and logistical constraints come into play in times of sudden crisis.
The Petroline line is therefore not a mechanism to save the global energy system, a buffer to limit the impact of the crisis can function.
Getting Caught in Another Strait While Fleeing Hormuz
One of the most critical aspects of energy logistics is maritime trade. The pipeline to the Red Sea is not the end of the story.
The real issue is the transportation of that oil to world markets.
Most of the tankers leaving the port of Yanbu to reach global trade routes Bab el-Mandeb Strait to cross. This narrow passage is located at a strategic point between Yemen and the Horn of Africa.
In recent years, this region has become increasingly risky for global trade. Conflicts in Yemen, attacks in the Red Sea and maritime security issues have made this route vulnerable.
Therefore, the energy flow escaping from Hormuz would now enter the risk zone of another strait. This situation reminds us of one of the basic facts of energy geopolitics:
In the energy system, risk does not disappear; it simply shifts.
New Targets of Modern Warfare
Energy infrastructure is one of the most vulnerable targets of modern warfare. It is not necessary to completely destroy a pipeline. By targeting pumping stations, control centers and terminal connections, the system can be largely paralyzed.
Drone attacks on energy facilities in recent years have clearly demonstrated this reality. Modern warfare technologies have made infrastructure networks extremely vulnerable.
That is why the energy war is no longer just about oil fields, for the nodes of the energy system is being carried out.
One pumping station can sometimes be more critical than hundreds of kilometers of pipeline.
Invisible Actors of the Global Energy System
Another often overlooked element in energy geopolitics is financial infrastructure.
Oil trade is driven not only by tankers, but also by insurance systems and financial networks. When an area is declared high risk, tanker insurance rates can increase dramatically. In some cases, insurers may even stop operating on certain routes altogether.
In this case, even if oil production continues, trade flows would be severely disrupted.
Therefore, one of the invisible actors in modern energy wars is global insurance and financial markets.
Collapsing Order and Energy Competition
All these developments are actually part of a larger transformation.
The international order established after World War II has long been in serious crisis. While international legal mechanisms are increasingly weakened, great powers are redefining energy security as a military and strategic issue.
Energy routes are no longer just economic lines, but also geopolitical lines of power.
Therefore, it is misleading to see the crises in the Middle East only as regional conflicts. These crises are also are signs of a period in which the global balance of power is being reshaped.
Meaning for Turkey
Turkey is located in a critical geography on this great energy chessboard.
Situated between the Caucasus, Central Asia, the Middle East and Europe, Turkey is at the crossroads of energy corridors. This brings both opportunities and risks to Ankara.
Energy crises can create economic pressure for Turkey. However, the same crises can strengthen Turkey's geostrategic role by increasing the importance of alternative energy routes.
The issue facing Ankara is therefore not only energy imports, but also positioning in energy geopolitics is a matter of.
Conclusion: The Fragility of the Global Energy System
Saudi Arabia's East-West line is by no means an infrastructure to be underestimated. It serves as an important strategic insurance that reduces full dependence on Hormuz.
But it is a serious illusion to see this insurance as a foolproof plan to save the global energy system.
The real picture is much harsher.
The Strait of Hormuz is still the heart of the world energy system. The oil pipeline is not a solution to save the system when this heart stops, but at most an auxiliary vessel that tries to keep the blood circulation going for a whileIt is.
On the energy chessboard, sometimes a single move can shake not just a pipeline but the entire global order.
And this is exactly the game being played in the Middle East today.