Food prices in Turkey are no longer an ordinary economic indicator. Food prices in Turkey are one of the most naked results of economic management, agricultural policies and political preferences. Today, the kitchen of citizens in Turkey is the real performance report of the economic management. And this report shows a severe crisis.
The basic defense that has been presented to the public for many years is this: “The world is in crisis.” However, global data clearly show that this defense does not reflect reality.
The World Food Price Index published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations reached its historical peak in 2022 with 159 points. However, by 2025, this index had declined to approximately 118 points. This implies a decline of about 26 percent in food prices on a global scale. According to OECD and FAO reports, world food inflation is expected to hover between 3 percent and 4 percent on average between 2025 and 2026.
In Turkey, the picture is completely different. According to TurkStat data, food inflation reached 93 percent in 2022, 72 percent in 2023, 65 percent in 2024 and is still hovering around 45-55 percent as of 2025. Turkey's food inflation has reached about 10 to 12 times the world average.
This picture can no longer be explained by the global crisis. It is the result of the collapse of Turkey's production model.
The Collapse of Agricultural Production in Turkey
The rise in food prices in Turkey is directly related to the decline in production capacity. According to the data of the Union of Chambers of Agriculture of Turkey, the number of registered farmers, which was approximately 2 million 800 thousand in 2002, decreased to 1 million 900 thousand by 2025. Approximately 900 thousand producers withdrew from the agricultural sector.
This is not only an employment problem. It means a shrinking of Turkey's production capacity.
According to TurkStat data, the cultivated agricultural area decreased from 26.5 million hectares in 2002 to 22.7 million hectares. Turkey has lost approximately 3.8 million hectares of agricultural land out of production. This area corresponds to a production capacity almost the size of Belgium.
This contraction in the agricultural sector is directly linked to the dramatic increase in production costs.
Agricultural Input Costs: Pressure Pushing Producers Out of the System
Turkey imports about 90 percent of the fertilizer used in agricultural production. Fertilizer prices have increased exponentially in recent years due to the exchange rate.
Diesel prices are one of the most important indicators of the cost crisis in the agricultural sector. In 2010, the price of diesel oil was approximately 3 TL per liter, but by 2025 it exceeded 53 TL. This means an increase of approximately 18 times.
Energy costs, irrigation costs and pesticide prices in agriculture have similarly increased. These cost increases have forced small and medium-sized producers to withdraw from production.
Population Growth and Supply Shrinkage: The Demographic Dimension of Food Inflation
Turkey's population has increased from approximately 66 million in 2002 to 86 million by 2025. Population growth has increased food demand. However, production capacity has shrunk in the same period.
The increase in demand amid shrinking supply has led to a structural rise in food prices. This is one of the main reasons why food inflation has become chronic in Turkey.
Lack of Strategy in Agricultural Policies
Agricultural policies in Turkey are not based on long-term production strategies. Agricultural subsidies change frequently. The ratio of agricultural support to GDP is below the OECD average. The ratio of agricultural subsidies to GDP in Turkey is around 0.6 percent, while this ratio is around 1.3 percent in European Union countries.
This makes production planning difficult and prevents farmers from making long-term investments.
Agriculture cannot be managed by short-term price interventions. Agriculture requires stability, planning and institutional continuity. This stability has not been achieved in Turkey.
Transition to Import Economy: Weakening Agricultural Independence
Turkey has frequently used import policy to control food prices. During periods of price increases, customs duties were lowered and imports increased.
In recent years, Turkey has significantly increased its imports of wheat, barley, corn and livestock. According to data from the Turkish Grain Board, the annual foreign exchange paid by Turkey for wheat imports alone will reach approximately 3.5 billion dollars by 2025.
Turkey imported around 9 million tons of wheat in 2024. This picture shows that Turkey has become dependent on imports for basic food products.
The import policy created price pressure in the short run, but weakened domestic production in the long run.
Meat and Livestock Crisis: The Hardest Indicator of Food Inflation
The most dramatic indicator of food inflation in Turkey is red meat prices. Meat prices are not just the price of a consumer product. Meat prices are one of the most important indicators of the success of animal husbandry policies, feed costs, import strategy and agricultural production planning.
The biggest cost item in the livestock sector in Turkey is feed. While feed prices were approximately 1,500 TL per ton in 2020, they reached 6,500 TL by 2025. This means an increase of approximately 330 percent.
A significant portion of feed raw materials used in animal husbandry are imported. Turkey is dependent on imported feed raw materials such as soybean and corn. The increase in the exchange rate has directly increased livestock costs.
Producers in the livestock sector have started to shrink due to cost pressures. In recent years, many small and medium-sized producers have been forced to quit animal husbandry. This has led to a contraction in meat supply.
Red meat prices in Turkey have increased dramatically in recent years. In 2020, the price per kilogram of beef was approximately 60 TL, but by 2025, it was close to 900 TL. This is approximately a 15-fold increase.
Turkey has frequently used live animal and carcass meat imports to reduce meat prices. However, while the import policy created price pressure in the short term, it weakened domestic production in the long term. Turkey has become foreign-dependent in livestock production.
The rise in meat prices represents the most severe stage of food inflation in Turkey. This is because meat prices are not just a product price. Meat prices are the most critical indicator of feed costs, production policies and the success of the agricultural strategy.
Political Consequences of De-Agriculturalization
As Turkey has moved away from a production economy, it has lost the capacity to control food prices. Agriculture has ceased to be a strategic sector and has been left to market fluctuations.
Today, food inflation in Turkey has become not only an economic but also a social welfare problem. Food prices are rising faster than wages, weakening the purchasing power of society.
Food prices in Turkey are no longer just a kitchen problem. This is the most fundamental test of economic management.
The Market System, Market Chains and the Balance of Power in Food Trade
It would be incomplete to explain the rise in food prices in Turkey solely in terms of production costs. One of the most critical reasons for the doubling of food prices in Turkey is the distribution and trade system. At the center of this system is the market system.
Vegetable and fruit trade in Turkey is carried out under the Law No. 5957. When this law entered into force in 2010, the main objectives were to reduce the number of intermediaries between producers and consumers, ensure price transparency and increase the bargaining power of producers. However, in practice, most of these objectives have not been realized.
Today, the trade of vegetables and fruits in Turkey is mostly carried out through the following chain:
Producer → Broker → Wholesale → Wholesaler → Transporter → Warehouse → Market → Consumer
Costs and profits are added at every link in this chain. Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry reports show that for some products, the difference between producer and consumer prices can reach 300 percent to 400 percent.
In 2025 data, tomatoes, which cost around 18 TL per kilogram at the producer, were sold for over 90 TL in some big cities. Similar differences are observed in basic products such as potatoes, onions and peppers.
Continuous Postponement of Hal Reform
The problems of the state market system have been known for many years. In 2012, the modernization of the hal system was put on the agenda, a new hal regulation was drafted in 2019, and reform discussions were reopened in 2023. However, none of these initiatives have been able to bring about lasting structural change.
The most important reason for the delay in the market reform is the economic power of trade networks and the brokerage system. Food trade in Turkey is largely dependent on the brokerage system. This structure causes price formation to be disconnected from the cost of production.
Intermediary System and Price Inflation
In Turkey, producers are often unable to offer their products directly to the market. Products have to enter the market system. This weakens the bargaining power of the producer.
According to agricultural economics research, producers often operate with profit margins of less than 10 percent. In the distribution and trade chain, however, profit margins are estimated to reach 30 to 40 percent.
This structure leads to an unfair distribution of earnings in the food chain in Turkey.
Chain Markets: Concentration of Retail Power
Another critical factor affecting food prices in Turkey is the organized retail sector. Chain markets have grown rapidly in the last two decades and have become the determining actor in food sales.
The share of the retail sector in total food sales has reached approximately 40 percent. Competition Authority reports show that market concentration has increased in the retail sector.
Chain markets have strong logistics and storage infrastructure. This creates a cost advantage. However, market concentration leads to the concentration of price-setting power in a limited number of commercial actors.
Explosion in Market Costs
Cost increases are one of the most important factors determining the price policies of chain markets. In the last five years:
- Electricity costs have increased nearly 3 times
- Commercial rent costs increased by 200 percent in some cities
- Logistics costs increased by approximately 250 percent
- Personnel costs have increased significantly
These cost increases are directly reflected on shelf prices. However, market concentration leads to limited price competition.
Logistics Costs: The Hidden Inflation of Food
Logistics costs are one of the most critical factors driving up food prices in Turkey. Agricultural products are transported from production regions to large urban consumption centers.
Diesel prices are the most important determinant of logistics costs. In 2010, the price of diesel oil was approximately 3 TL per liter, but by 2025, it was close to 50 TL. This means an increase of approximately 17 times.
In road transportation, highway and bridge tolls also increase logistics costs. According to experts, logistics costs account for 15 to 25 percent of food prices in Turkey.
Transportation of agricultural products in Turkey is largely carried out by road. Inadequate railroad and cold chain infrastructure further increases costs.
Cold Chain and Storage Issues
Inadequate storage infrastructure also plays an important role in the rise in food prices in Turkey. Insufficient cold storage capacity increases product losses.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, post-harvest losses in some agricultural products in Turkey can reach 20 percent. These losses reduce supply and raise prices.
Balance of Power in Food Trade
In Turkey, the food chain is distributed among producers, intermediaries, wholesalers and retail actors. However, the balance of power in this chain works against the producer.
While producers cannot set prices, distribution and trade chains are more powerful in price formation. This shows that the food market in Turkey is not competitive but fragmented and unbalanced.
Why are food prices in Turkey rising?
The rise in food prices in Turkey is not only due to production costs. The state market system increases intermediary costs. Chain market concentration limits price competition. Logistics costs push prices up. Inadequate storage infrastructure leads to supply losses.
The combination of these factors leads to chronically high food prices in Turkey.
The Political Dimension of the Distribution Crisis
The food trade system in Turkey has been in need of reform for many years. However, the continuous postponement of the market reform, the failure to strengthen producer organizations and the limited market control mechanisms have led to a deepening of the distribution crisis.
The problems in the food trade are not only economic, but also the result of management choices.
Meat Prices: The Naked Indicator of the Food Crisis in Turkey
The harshest and most visible area of food inflation in Turkey is red meat prices. Meat prices are not just the price of a consumer product. Meat prices are the most critical indicator of the success of agricultural policies, feed costs, the import strategy and the livestock production model.
The biggest cost item in the livestock sector in Turkey is feed. While feed prices were approximately 1,500 TL per ton in 2020, they reached 6,500 TL by 2025. This means an increase of approximately 425 percent.
Turkey is heavily dependent on imports for soy, corn and feed raw materials. The increase in the exchange rate has directly increased livestock costs. Many small and medium-sized producers have been forced to give up animal husbandry.
In 2020, the price per kilogram of beef was approximately 60 TL, but by 2025 it was close to 900 TL. Turkey has become one of the most expensive countries in the world in red meat prices.
Import Policy: A Model That Weakens Production, Not Reduces Prices
Turkey has been using live animal and carcass meat imports to control meat prices for many years. However, although the import policy has created price pressure in the short term, it has weakened domestic production in the long term.
Turkey has become dependent on imports not only for meat but also for wheat, barley, corn and feed raw materials. Turkey's annual wheat imports have reached approximately 8 million tons. The foreign currency paid for these imports is about 3 billion dollars.
Turkey's import-based food policy has linked Turkey's price stability to the exchange rate. When the exchange rate increases, so do food prices.
Why Turkey is out of step with the world food trend
According to FAO data, global cereal prices fell by about 30 percent compared to the peak in 2022. However, bread prices in Turkey increased by an average of 200 percent over the same period.
This gap is a combination of production costs, distribution system problems and import dependency. As Turkey has moved away from production, it has lost the capacity to control food prices.
Social Impacts of Food Inflation
In Turkey, food prices are rising faster than wages, weakening the purchasing power of the society. In recent years, while the minimum wage has increased about 6 times, the price increase in some basic food products has reached 8 to 10 times.
This shows that the food crisis is not only an economic but also a social welfare issue.
Solution: The State Should Assume Its Market Regulatory Role Again, TMO Should Become a Strategic Actor Again
The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) should be transformed from a mere importer into an active institution that provides purchase guarantees to producers and stabilizes market prices. TMO's storage capacity should be increased and its strategic stock policy should be strengthened.
Meat and Milk Board should be turned into a Market Regulatory Power
The Meat and Milk Board should not only be an importer. The institution should actively carry out its duties of supporting producers, price stabilization and supply planning. It is not possible to control meat prices without production planning in the livestock sector.
Cooperative Structures such as Tariş and Çukobirlik should be Reinforced
Producer cooperatives in Turkey have been important stabilizers in the agricultural market in the past. TARIS, ÇUKOBİRLİK and similar producer unions increased the bargaining power of producers and provided price stability.
Re-strengthening these structures will increase producer income and reduce the influence of the intermediary system.
Sugar Factories and Agriculture Industry Should be Included in the Public Strategy
Sugar factories are not just industrial enterprises. They are strategic institutions that directly affect beet production, rural employment and agricultural planning. Restructuring the agro-industry within public policy will strengthen production planning.
The State Should Become a Rebalancing Actor in the Agricultural Market
The free market mechanism alone cannot stabilize food prices. The agricultural sector is inherently strategic and sensitive. The state must play an active role in production planning, price stability and market regulation.
Moment of Historical Decision
Today, Turkey is at a historical threshold in agriculture and food. Countries that lose food production also lose their economic independence. Food prices are not just a kitchen problem. Food prices are the main determinant of social welfare, economic justice and social peace.
Turkey faces a clear choice. Either it will return to a production economy, rebuild agriculture as a strategic sector and strengthen public institutions as market stabilizing actors, or it will be condemned to an import-dependent, fragile and high-priced food system.
This choice is not only an economic choice. It is a strategic decision that will determine Turkey's future.