Trfikte ‘blind spot’, is a term that refers to the parts of a vehicle that are not visible in the side and rearview mirrors while driving. The blind spot in politics is the blind spot in the polls. ‘undecided voters’ rates.
How come there is no election date yet? ‘undecided voters’ There will be those who will call it an article.
CHP Chairman Özgür Özel said the following about the survey results in the KARAR TV broadcast he attended recently:
“The AK Party ended last year with 28.5 - before the distribution of swing voters. CHP finished with 32.7. When undecideds are distributed We are between 36-38. The way forward is clear, we are moving forward.”
Of course, there are many polls showing that the opposition is ahead, albeit by a nose. Moreover, some of them are polling companies close to the government.
But as we said, the elections are still a long way off. My prediction is that the elections will be held in November 2027. With this calculation, it is close to 2 years. It is certain that a lot of water will flow under the bridge until then. Especially in a country like Turkey.
In addition, Mehmet Simsek's AKP's defeat in the 2024 local elections ‘austerity’ policy will get some results by November 2027, when Erdogan will emerge just as he did in the 2023 elections saddlebags full or if the expected success will not be achieved and the 2024 local elections will be held again? ‘Züğürt Ağa’ We also need to see whether he will brush the citizens in the squares without meeting any demands.
But I still think that the politics of polling ‘blind spot’ which I consider to be a "paranoia-inducing" and almost paranoid opposition voters. ‘undecided voters’ I feel the need to draw attention to this issue.
As you know, in the last few elections, when we look at the vote rates of the CHP and the opposition in the pre-election polls and the vote rates of the AK Party and the People's Alliance, we witness that the opposition received lower than expected votes and the government received higher than expected votes.
While there is some merit to the concerns about ballot box security, if 4-5 percent of the votes can change places in the ballot box, there is no point in setting up ballot boxes, holding elections or conducting polls!
For example, in March, about two months before the 2023 general elections Yöneylem, MAK, ArtıBir, GENAR, Saros, ORC, Turkey Report, AR-G, Aksoy, PİAR and ALF’When we looked at the average of the surveys of 11 companies, we saw the following picture.
Averaged over 11 companies AK Party % 32.8 , CHP while % had 27.6 votes.
In the elections held on May 14, 2023 AK Party % 35.6 (+2.8), CHP while % received 25.33 (-2.3) votes.
In other words, the average in the polls and the result in the polls corresponded to approximately %5 for the two parties.
The most important factor in this result is undoubtedly the closer we get to the election date. ‘undecided’ voters tended to lean towards the ruling parties. In fact, this was the case not only in the 2023 elections but also in many previous general elections.
According to some recent surveys, almost 1 out of every 3 voters ‘undecided’ is emerging. Such a high number of undecided voters in a highly polarized country like Turkey is, of course, not normal. Undoubtedly, the reason for this is that the polls are still far away.
ASAL Research‘s poll released in December 2025, the rate of undecided voters %27.4 in the last survey released in January 2026. %33.4‘has increased to.
So the undecideds have not decreased, about %6 by a percentage increase.
There is no doubt about it, “Which political party do you think can solve Turkey's problems today?” answer to the question %36.6 at the rate ‘none’ the impact of your answer is enormous. This one ‘AK Party’ diyen %20.4 ile ‘CHP’ diyen %18.0’lik seçmen takip ediyor. Yani ülkenin iktidar partisi ile ana muhalefet partisinin ülkenin sorunlarını çözeceğine inananların oranı neredeyse ‘none of them can solve it’ the same rate as the rate of those who said "yes".
Noting the lesson that the political institution in general should learn from this, we ‘swing voters’ Let's get back to the issue.
As the election date becomes clearer and closer, of course, this rate will gradually decrease. However, the way in which undecided voters change their minds will determine the fate of the election.
The transition of the electorate from an undecided to a stable attitude is not like the stabilization of unstable atoms.
Actually polls ‘undecided voters’ This electorate is categorized under different headings. Due to time undecided voters, as well as voters who are undecided. for waiting for the candidates and the showcase There is also a mass of undecided voters.
Most of them actually have clear political leanings. The real swing voters are those whose ideological tendencies do not predominate, who do not feel party affiliation and who, according to political scientists ‘rational voter’ is a constituency they call "the electorate".
I believe that the share of that group in the general electorate is between %5 and %8.
Ancak %50+1 sisteminde başta cumhurbaşkanının kimin olacağına, ayrıca Meclis’teki dağılımın ne şekilde oluşacağına da büyük oranda karar veren aslında bu ‘rasyonel’ ya da anketçilerin tabiri ile ‘undecided voters’ decides.
And this mass of voters determines the fate of the country at the last moment, either by not going to the polls or by the choice they make at the ballot box.
As a result, the rate of vote transitivity of ideological parties entering the elections is certain and limited. Center parties, on the other hand, face the risk of alienating the masses at the same distance when they take steps to gain the support of a certain electorate with ideological and sociological messages.
This is a choice that cannot be easily calculated in terms of profit/loss for the parties as nationalist voters are alienated when they approach Kurdish voters and secular voters are alienated when they approach conservative voters.
As a matter of fact, it should be taken into account that the representation of such political groups in politics is not a single address and that they may turn to alternatives (the results of the TİP and YRP in the last general elections are an example of this).
In this case, those who are not ideological, who do not consider themselves bound to act together with a sociological group ‘undecided’ according to voters ‘determined’ into a state?
Of course, since man is an economic being ‘economic indicators’ and ‘future prospects’ in the first place. Although it is often ‘The wolf passes the winter but does not forget the frost’ Despite the use of rhetoric, voters go to the polls not only to ask for an accounting for the frost they have just experienced, but also to choose the alternative that promises and reassures them that they will not experience the same frost next winter.
In this sense, political choice is not only an accounting of the past 5 years, but also an orientation for the next 5 years. ‘investment’ and ‘buying the future’ is also considered as.
This is where some mechanisms of individual and social psychology come into play. An uncertain future or a known and familiar habit?
Change always in it Risk is also a phenomenon. And the masses do not spontaneously demand great changes unless there are great necessities. Tribes ‘let's change places a little’ They did not migrate because they wanted to, they made this choice because the opportunities to live in the geography they lived in were getting narrower and narrower.
Back to the voters at the ballot box, the opposition ‘uncertain’ that the future emerges in the minds of the voters with a concrete and depictable program ‘undecided’ will be the most important factor in voters' preference for them.
Discontent with the status quo, with inflation and costs persisting since 2020, may trigger voters to make a change. But only if they believe that the risk of change will lead to a better outcome than the status quo.
Of course, a convincing economic program is not enough for this. Turkey's regional issues, its security perception and the expectation of a political leadership that can handle the crises that may arise due to changing balances in the world will be as influential in the final decision as the economic program and its showcase.
That is precisely why the opposition, ‘undecided’ If he makes an electoral calculation by distributing voters according to the percentage of votes received by the parties, he will be disappointed again at the ballot box.
With a simple finger calculation, if the opposition fails to take convincing steps to turn the circumstances in its favor, it ‘undecided’ voters ‘determined’ of those who have become 2/3 of them will prefer the government.
I mean, what he knows!
It is in the hands of the opposition to change this situation by building qualified cadres and a reassuring political language, instead of relying on paper and pencil polls, and repeating what has happened many times before.
The ballot box will tell us what will happen.