The highly anticipated İmralı visit of Sırrı Süreyya Önder and Pervin Buldan took place on December 28. On December 29, the DEM Party shared with the public the most important messages from the meeting with Abdullah Öcalan. If there are those who are too optimistic to expect a ‘call to lay down arms’ after the first meeting, it may be a disappointment for them. Otherwise, whatever happens, it can be said that a hopeful process has begun.
It should be noted that Öcalan does not seem to have ignored MHP Chairman Devlet Bahçeli's call. He responds with a message that will extend the process over time and create a certain political bargaining ground.
Let us quote a merged paragraph from the message shared by the DEM Party:
“I have the competence and determination to contribute positively to the new paradigm that Mr. Bahçeli and Mr. Erdoğan are strengthening. The delegation will share this approach with the state and political circles. In light of this, I am ready to take the necessary positive step and make the necessary call. All these efforts will carry the country to the level it deserves and will also be a valuable guide for a democratic transformation. This is the era of peace, democracy and brotherhood for Turkey and the region.”
Second step on the slippery slope
The sentences are very well chosen, there is not a single word that would make any of the parties to the negotiations feel any sense of defeat. With this message, it is possible to say that multilateral negotiations will begin. There will probably be a negotiation process with Qandil, Europe and the PYD, with the DEM Party as the carrier pigeon and then with the participation of MIT.
However, it is important to note that there are still many uncertainties at home and abroad. And of course, before Devlet Bahçeli's call, there were obviously contacts not only with Öcalan but also with other parties. What and how much was discussed, perhaps we will find out years from now.
‘Solving the ’Kurdish issue‘ without creating a 'Turkish issue'
Öcalan will be on one side and the leaders of the organization in Qandil, the PYD and PKK elements in Europe on the other. And of course, the DEM Party will assume a separate function between them and the state. As a result, since at least some of the parties point to the Parliament as the final solution address... Since Bahçeli's call, it is noteworthy that the DEM Party and Öcalan have learned an important lesson from the Resolution Process. Both parties underline that the CHP should also participate in this process.
Of course, not because they love the CHP, but not only them, but also the AK Party and the MHP know that an inclusive compromise cannot be achieved without the CHP. This is a necessity in order not to be confronted with the ‘Turkish issue‘ while solving the ’Kurdish issue'.
‘Cross-border’ all the way to Gaza!
Let's go back to Öcalan's messages... “Re-strengthening the Turkish-Kurdish brotherhood is not only a historical responsibility, but it has also gained a decisive importance and urgency for all peoples. For the success of the process, it is essential for all political circles in Turkey to take the initiative, act constructively and contribute positively without getting caught up in narrow and periodic calculations.
One of the most important grounds for these contributions will undoubtedly be the Turkish Grand National Assembly. The events in Gaza and Syria have shown that the solution to this problem, which is being gangrenized by external interventions, cannot be postponed any longer. The contributions and suggestions of the opposition are also valuable in order to achieve success in a work that is directly proportional to the seriousness of this issue.”
Almost immediately, we see that there are proposals for proactive solutions to the risks I have just highlighted. However, for the CHP and the secularists, Alevis and nationalists who strongly support the unitary state, a national consensus is closely tied to developments in Syria and the region. And there is an environment in which all parties involved in the talks would not be effective enough even if they came together.
For instance, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is not only a terrorist organization that CHP supporters abhor, but almost 90 percent of this nation sees the takfirist Salafists as a serious threat.
In the event of a massacre of Arab Alawites, Christians or secularists in general in Latakia, Tartus, Homs or any other city or countryside during the course of these negotiations, there could be a serious flare-up in the resistance to the settlement process by large segments of the population in Turkey, from Zafer Party members to Alevis, secularists to nationalists.
Especially if the Syrian National Army (SMO) gets involved in such an event... This also applies to some of the Kurds, especially the Kurds living in metropolitan areas...
Syria's territorial integrity is hanging by a thread even in the short term
It's not over... HTS is not as strong as it is thought to be, and as the cities under Damascus‘ sovereignty fell one by one, this armed al-Qaeda remnant was perhaps the most surprised! It has neither the power nor the ability to stabilize an entire country. It is not yet clear whether it will be able to control its components, let alone it. Only with the support of foreign powers in the region can a fragile solution be found, perhaps within the ’territorial integrity of Syria'.
For instance, there is no power other than the United States that can convince Israel, which has been able to occupy Syria up to the Damascus countryside.
If Tel Aviv cannot be persuaded, a defacto Druze state could emerge in that region. Such a development could trigger a domino effect, with other minorities mobilizing behind another foreign power to form statehoods. In the event of such a development, it is obvious that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), even if they are inclined to respond positively to Öcalan's message, will continue to fight the US, and if the US backs down, any foreign power, to establish their own state.
Dozens of similar scenarios can be written. So the future of Syria is still very, very uncertain.
And those who are not on guard will soon be in the ring...
First, we will have to wait for January 20, 2025. Let's see what moves Donald Trump will make in the Middle East with this Judeo-Christian hawkish cabinet. And it is not just Syria, his strategy towards Gaza and Iran will directly affect Syria and thus this new settlement process.
Meanwhile, Iran and the Russian Federation have not disappeared from the Syrian arena, they are just ‘wait and see’... Britain and the United States seem to have reached a compromise, but you never know. It is not clear what position Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will take. These are all developments that neither Ankara, nor İmralı, nor Qandil will soon be able to control. And there is a possibility that each of them will have to reposition according to these developments.
DEM Party and CHP both have a tough job
Now let's go back to the domestic scene... This will be a crucial period for the DEM Party and the Kurdish political movement in general. Whatever happens, there is a possibility of cracks forming within the movement. With its restless radical youth on the one hand and the Ikhwanist-leaning pious on the other, the DEM Party needs to reconstruct its internal communication.
We should expect that some of the political Islamists will take advantage of these cracks and try to create a conservative Kurdish political movement, which they have so far failed to do. This is not going to happen with murderous remnants like Hüda-Par, that's for sure!... A formation supported by Barzani and AK Party Kurds may be on the agenda.
On the one hand, the CHP has to convince the Alevis, who constitute an important voting potential and are on high alert due to the developments in Syria; on the other hand, it has to play an active and constructive role in this new solution process without disturbing secularist and nationalist segments. Accordingly, he needs to completely revamp his staff. If necessary by making transfers from outside the party...
For instance, he should waste no time and completely revamp his deputy chairman for foreign policy so that he is no longer a laughing stock. Likewise his spokespersons...
Is it a vote-sharing opportunity for nationalist parties?
There are also parties that can make a lot of noise in this process. The Victory Party is one of the first parties that comes to mind... For this party, which has reached 5 percent with its anti-refugee rhetoric rather than the Kurdish issue, the new solution process offers a great opportunity to gain votes. The IYI Party, which has not fulfilled its deadline and has hit the bottom of the hamas with its new chairman, may also make exits that will undermine this process.
The Patriotic Party is already breathing down its neck because of the developments in Syria. It doesn't take a clairvoyant to predict that they, too, will mount a fierce opposition!
There may be a small number of ruptures from the MHP in the process. Because orders can only cut iron to a certain extent. From the Victory Party to the Key Party, there are parties ready and waiting to welcome them.
As for the AK Party... It may cause discomfort among a section of the AK Party that has become increasingly ultra-nationalist with the securityist and ultra-nationalist discourse it has been scratching up to now. On the other hand, if the process does not go well and a harsher atmosphere of tension emerges again, the problem this time may be the Kurds with different tendencies within the party organization. Of course, there are also the party members and pro-media members who are uninformed and can say whatever they want. Shutting them up will be another problem.
Is there a master mind that will not burn neither shish nor kebab?
It is possible to say that the statements of Mehmet Uçum, Chief Advisor to the President of the Republic and Deputy Chairperson of the Presidential Legal Policy Council, who is one of the proponents of the process in front of the window, are more of a message to the AK Party and MHP supporters.
First, he says that Kurds are a founding and inseparable part of the Turkish nation, and then he says: “The Turkish century is the Turkish and Kurdish century”. He does not neglect to add that Kurds are a founding and permanent owner of the state. He also emphasizes the unitary state. In other words, a ‘win-win’ formula in unity and integrity... Is it possible, even if it is difficult?.
But... Is it enough to convince the secularists, Alevis and secular nationalists of this country?
It's not enough! Even if he sends such messages, they won't be convinced!
And without them being convinced? No. That is why this process cannot work without the CHP's explicit support.
This is why both İmralı and the DEM Party are calling on the CHP. Most probably, the AK Party and the MHP have also been or will be openly trying to persuade the CHP behind closed doors in order not to openly bow to it.