They were chatting in the coffeehouse.
Someone said.
“It's raining beautifully. Now the doomsayers realize they are talking nonsense.”
Another supported it.
“With this rain, there will never be a drought.”
They were comfortable. Very comfortable.
Because they thought drought was the absence of rain.
However, the drought described by scientists is not a complete cessation of rainfall. The real issue is the irregularity of the rain. The rain comes, but it comes in a short time. The soil cannot hold it. It cannot go underground. It seems to fill the dam, but it does not feed the system. Then the long dry period begins. This is exactly why we experience floods and drought in the same year.
This picture cannot be explained only by the lack of rain. Global warming is behind it. Global warming is the slow but steady warming of the Earth as a result of greenhouse gases that accumulate in the atmosphere due to human activities, keeping the planet's heat inside. The use of coal, oil and gas, cement production, deforestation and improper agricultural practices accelerate this process. As the planet warms, evaporation increases, soils dry out more quickly, dams empty faster. Rain does not disappear completely, but its timing and form change.
So the problem is not the quantity of water, but the disturbance of the balance.
When you add political preferences to this global picture, the crisis deepens. When forests are cut down, not only the trees are destroyed, but also the natural system that holds water. It is a natural infrastructure that absorbs rainfall, slowly seeps into the soil and feeds groundwater. When the forest is gone, the rain comes, but it is useless.
Concretization accelerates this process. The soil is sealed, it cannot breathe. It cannot hold water. The same rain, while it gives life in a forested area, turns into a flood in a concreted area. We call this a natural disaster. However, this is not the result of nature, but of decisions taken or not taken.
Drought is underestimated because it is silent. It doesn't strike overnight like an earthquake. Every year there is a little less water. Every year the well is dug a little deeper. Every year the farmer is a little more alone. It does not sound the political alarm, because the price is written for tomorrow, not today.
Even the numbers tell the results of this choice. It is no coincidence that cement, which covers the soil, is produced in this country many times more than wheat, which feeds people. This is a clear indication of what we are investing in.
Those who defend nature, forests and water are therefore labeled as a bunch of marginals. Because long-term reason disturbs the short-term interest system. However, the real marginality is to plan as if there is unlimited water. The real unrealism is still pinning hopes on concrete when science speaks so clearly.
History has written this story over and over again. In Akkad, the Maya, Angkor, the Indus Valley, drought struck, agriculture collapsed, people migrated, political order could not survive. None of them collapsed overnight. They all collapsed because they could not adapt.
Here's the difference today. We know.
We know what global warming is. We know how it deepens the drought. We know where cutting down the forest, covering the land with concrete, and using the water in a profligate way is taking us.
It is no longer about information.
Willpower.
Defending nature is not a sentiment, it is reason itself. Drought is not an environmental problem. It is a problem of food, economy, migration and social stability.
And for those who still take comfort in a few days of rain today.
Drought does not make noise.
It comes slowly.
It moves silently.
And by the time it is recognized, it is often too late.
This crisis did not come out of the sky.
It has been deliberately, blatantly magnified.