Nearly six years ago, then President of the Syrian Arab Republic Bashar al-Assad, in a speech addressed to the Kurds, warned, “The United States will not protect you, it will not take you into its heart or its arms. It will put you in its pocket and use you for barter,” he warned. I think this is a warning that Kurdish political organizations in Turkey, as well as in Syria, Iraq and Iran, should remember and think about.
Because what has been happening in the past few days confirms this warning.
US Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack not only said that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are no longer needed to fight Daesh (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant). Following the announcement that the Syrian Interim Government had given the SDF four days to agree on an administrative and military integration plan for Hasakah, he called it a ‘unique opportunity’ for the SDF. The SDF also said it would abide by the ceasefire. This is the situation as of Monday night, we don't know what will change tomorrow...
Relying on Tribes and Expanding Borders
At the time Assad issued this warning, the SDF would not have been faced with the defection of its own Arab tribes in a single day if the SDF had actually preferred to dominate the predominantly Kurdish regions instead of being a trump card on the bargaining table of the AK Party government, which voluntarily joined the coalition of the US, the UK, the European Union, Israel and the Gulf countries determined to destroy the Damascus regime. During the civil war, the YPG, which fought against ISIS with the support of the US, took control of a very large area in proportion to its population, again under Washington's guidance. Isn't it a bit too late for some Kurdish opinion leaders today to admit that the territories they lost after the recent attacks were not Kurdish territory in the first place? By stripping Syria, which was already struggling under the embargo, of its underground and above-ground riches, did they not pave the way for the takfiri Salafists to take power in Damascus today?
The Planners Changed Their Minds
Much has changed since then. Perhaps the Syrian Army, backed by Russia and Iran, made its biggest mistake by not completely sweeping away the takfiri Salafist terrorists nesting in Idlib at that time. Of course, whether it could have swept them away is another matter... The result is obvious, the attack that started in Idlib ended in Damascus and the Assad regime collapsed. Those who are trying to pass this off as a ‘revolution’, from liberals to political Islamists, know exactly what is going on but continue their manipulations.
Now, one year after the fall of the regime, it is clear that the coalition forces are pursuing a new plan... The 14-point comprehensive ceasefire and integration agreement reached between the Syrian Interim Government and the SDF was supposed to be the most critical step towards ending the de facto division of Syria, but it turned out that it was not. The agreement brought together the dismantling of the SDF's military presence, the transfer of oil fields, the expulsion of PKK elements from Syria and the constitutional guarantee of Kurds' cultural and linguistic rights. However, the real issue was the special status. After the Interim Government easily captured first two neighborhoods in Aleppo, then Tabqa and Raqqa, al Colani seems to have set his sights on the remaining cities. And it seems that even special status is no longer on the table. Mazlum Abdi's return to Damascus without signing any documents is clear evidence of this. After all, what is the point of such agreements without a constitution!
El Colani is a very useful toy for imperialists
As part of the agreement, the Interim Government, together with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its affiliates, i.e. the remnants of ISIS, al-Qaeda, al-Nusra and some Arab tribes within the SDF that switched sides, took over control of Raqqa, Deir Ezzor, Tishrin Dam, Ain Issa and Tel Abyad without any clashes, which also means that the coalition has abandoned the SDF for the time being. It is possible to say that this latest development has created a debate and tension in Kurdish politics. There was already a strangeness that attracted attention in this short two-day period. Now that the Arab tribes have switched sides, some of the forces, which would more reasonably be called the YPG rather than the SDF, withdrew, while others chose to withdraw after clashes. It seems that two different approaches are becoming evident within the organization. On the one hand, there are those who do whatever the US says, and on the other hand, there are those who think that the US, the EU and Israel have sold them out.
The fighting yesterday and today seems to have subsided for the time being, if true, with a ceasefire. According to the SDF statement, an agreement has been reached with the armed forces of the Interim Government. The SDF side says they will abide by the ceasefire as long as there are no attacks against them. If the Interim Government can control the Arab tribes, perhaps this ceasefire can last for a short period of time.
Every agreement is doomed to be obsolete
As a result, SDF forces have retreated east of the Euphrates, while Damascus loyalists have regained control of the country's largest oil and gas fields. I think the SDF's biggest loss is that Arab tribes have switched sides and the YPG has been isolated.
According to the January 18 agreement, the most critical points included the integration of SDF elements into the Syrian Defense and Interior ministries on an individual basis, the transfer of border crossings and oil and gas fields to the Damascus administration, and the expulsion of non-Syrian PKK leaders and members. Responsibility for ISIS prisoners and camps would be transferred entirely to the armed forces of the Syrian Interim Government. And some of these serial killers somehow escaped from prison, or rather were released. Both sides blame each other, but it is important to remember that even this so-called president has a history of ISIS. There may be those who want to use these fugitive assassins in a possible operation in Hasakah. And US President Donald Trump announced that the forces of the Interim Government had captured ISIS fighters. Isn't that quick?
By the way, it should be noted that a significant number of these foreign terrorists are al-Qaeda remnants from Uyghur, Chechen, Tajik, Afghan and many other countries who are part of HTS and its affiliates! However, they are not mentioned. In fact, when a so-called strategist was reminded of these terrorists by the anchor on a TV channel today, his response clearly reveals the hypocrisy. The man shamelessly replied, “HTS is no longer considered a terrorist organization”! Isn't the last agreement already null and void? Therefore, there is no point even discussing it!
When Tenef could set the tame ISIS remnants in order
Let's talk about the media's lies and distortions... The same lies and distortions are repeated in the sleazy media regarding the agreement: “The Kurdish Rights Decree issued two days before the ceasefire granted Syrian citizenship to Kurds who had been unregistered since 1962’. This chewing gum is also chewed in the media close to the CHP and the DEM Party. However, the Kurds settled in Syria had identity cards and title deeds. Those who were not given identity cards were the Kurdish refugees who had suffered the wrath of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and were welcomed by Syria and numbered around 300,000. Yet, almost all people are buying this lie of the Ikhwanists and the takfiri Salafist terrorists!
Let's talk about the January 18 agreement, which apparently was not written by Mohammed al Colani, nor was it consulted by Mazloum Abdi, which is one of the reasons why the agreement was trashed within a day. This suits Tel Aviv, which agreed with al-Colani, as well as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Qatar. In fact, this latest story seems to fit well with the Greater Middle East Project (GOP). A government dominated by a tame ISIS and al-Qaeda hybrid force, which will be regulated by the US-controlled Free Syrian Army (FSA) in Tenaf, Tel Aviv and Ankara if it disobeys orders, seems quite useful. In other words, there is no need for the SDF for now, and if the YPG does not accept these conditions, it will be severely battered.
What if this calculation backfires or if the calculation is already different...
The strange thing is that by giving open support to HTS, the Western Bloc may have, willingly or unwillingly, ignited the fuse of a united Kurdish movement across borders in Syria, Iraq, Turkey and Iran. It seems as if such a tendency has been growing stronger these few days. While the special status in Syria was being scoffed at and autonomy was being scrutinized, before you know it, a long-term and transnational Kurdish movement has emerged. Again, this is meaningful and fits perfectly into the GOP map! A divided Iran, a Syria that will crush Lebanon in cooperation with Israel at any moment, a new West Asia with a Judeo-Christian limited company that will turn Gaza into a re-export port... Yemen is also a target, but if Iran is dismembered or a puppet regime is put in power, why bother with Yemen, Saudi Arabia will solve that job!
What about the Kurdish population spread across four countries?... For its solution, perhaps the Kurdistan Democratic Party (Partiya Demokrat a Kurdistanê-PDK) will be brought to the fore, which the Barzanis are more than willing to do...
There will always be someone more cooperative
I think these next few weeks are going to be very important. Because this is West Asia and the house may not fit the bill, as it happens many times. For example, there has been a movement in Iraq for two days. Hashd al-Shaabi is massing on the Syrian border. The Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is testing whether the Kurds can be the main actor in this mess. Demonstrations are organized in Turkey in support of Rojava. Whether the process of a ‘terror-free Turkey’ will evolve or whether it will be shelved is another question. I hope it will not be shelved!
Whether this issue will lead to the mobilization of the Kurdistan Free Life Party (Partiya Jiyana Azad a Kurdistanê-PJAK) in the Islamic Republic of Iran is another question. If the armed forces of the Syrian Interim Government launch an operation in Hasakah, a serious civil war is likely to be on the agenda. Hashd al-Shaabi is on the lookout for a rematch. I think the KRG's calculation is to erode the power of the Democratic Union Party (Partiya Yekitiya Demokrat-PYD) through the Syrian Kurdish Council (Encûmena Niştimanî ya Kurdî li Sûriyê-ENKS) and seize the ‘leadership of all Kurds'. It is also unclear whether the Peshmerga would support the YPG in a possible conflict. Given the tensions in Erbil and Sulaymaniyah, they may be forced to do so. We will see together.
After all, the KDP can be ‘flexible’ enough to deal with the AK Party, the Syrian Interim Government, Washington and Tel Aviv. Nationalist, prone to political Islam, eager to open the region's resources to global corporations... For the imperialists, the best is Damascus!
Everyone Has Questions to Answer
Let me conclude by asking a few questions to those with different political views, including myself.
First to Kurdish politics: “If you hadn't supported the coalition to overthrow Bashar al-Assad's regime, which you constantly call the ‘dictatorial Assad regime’ with the rhetoric of the Ikhwan, wouldn't you perhaps have been able to secure a special status at the table today with some of what you call ‘Baathist remnants’?”, “Couldn't you have charted a different course instead of relying on registered vendors like the US and the UK?’, “Isn't seeking reconciliation with a former ISIS terrorist today the worst option?
Now let me pose the question to the AK Party-MHP Alliance: “While all this was going on, wasn't it possible to put pressure on HTS and prevent it from massacring Alawites, to prevent it from pushing the Druze into Israel's arms, to protect the rights of Christians and Turkmens by naming them, to carry the ‘Terror Free Turkey’ process to Syria by negotiating with the YPG, and to ensure that Turkey assumed the role of de facto guarantor?”
The last question is for the CHP: “Instead of supporting what is happening in Syria because ‘the unity and integrity of Syria is being ensured’, couldn't you have presented an alternative plan against a terrorist state in Syria that is being ruled by a coalition of Ikhwan-takfiri Salafists who are imperialist lackeys?”
Because if one day a government comes to power in Turkey that will prioritize independence, patriotism and secularism, that terrorist state will not be the biggest threat.