In the 2023 presidential election, the CHP, under the leadership of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, received the highest number of votes in the last 20 years - perhaps more.
“It will never come together” called parties came together.
“I will never vote for CHP” voters voted for the CHP.
A historical political rupture has emerged.
in Diyarbakir,
Bitlis received votes.
These figures are not trivial.
Because there is a chronic distance against CHP in these provinces.
Normally in this sociology “I will never vote for CHP” is a very high percentage of voters.
And political science tells us this:
“I will never vote” a voter who says ’yes" is only %2-5 likely to vote for that party in normal times.
This ratio is not fixed.
During periods of political upheaval, %8 can be as high as 12.
But in normal times it is almost like a frozen mass.
This is the Electorate;
Hard Negative Partisanship (Hard Negative Partisanship)
is defined as.
Features:
- “I would never vote for party X”
- Identity-based refusal
- Emotional-political belonging, not rational
This voter is not undecided.
Stable opposition.
Hence this group in Western literature:
“Frozen voters” (Frozen voter).
This mass does not normally change.
Why?
Because this is a party preference for the voter:
It is not a program, it is an identity.
From this point on:
- Economy
- Candidate
- Campaign
alone is not decisive.
This is why what Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is building in 2023 is not an ordinary vote transition,
is a historical political rupture.
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu will not vote for the CHP under normal conditions. “frozen mass” solved.
This was a strategic threshold for the CHP.
March 31st Local Elections are the Real Dynamics;
In the 2024 local elections, two mechanisms worked:
1. Returned Frozen Voter
This audience voted for the CHP in 2023,
when he saw that his candidate could not win locally,
to the CHP candidate who is likely to win.
If this psychological threshold had not been crossed in 2023, this behavior would not have emerged in 2024.
2. Negatively Politicized Voter
This is the voter:
“My candidate cannot win, but neither should that candidate”
and votes for the strongest candidate in the opposing bloc.
However, the frozen mass must be thawed before this effect can occur.
Why did the CHP fail to preserve this strategic advantage?
On March 31st
People's alliance .5
CHP received ,8.
Two years passed.
This vote could not be protected.
In our country, which has a presidential government system, winning the presidential election is considered more important than the parliamentary election. According to the surveys, the Ak Parti is in the % 30 MHP %9 band, while the CHP is in the % 30 band.
However, the basic rule in presidential systems is this:
The opposition increases its votes as the government is worn down.
In Turkey, the picture is reversed:
- The ruling party is losing votes
- The main opposition is also losing votes
This is abnormal in terms of political science.
Economy ,
While justice is a problem at the level,
the main opposition needs to grow.
But it is not growing.
So this is what the voters are saying:
“I am not satisfied with the government, but I don't trust the opposition either.”
This is a systemic crisis of opposition.
The Real Danger Shrinking the CHP: Sabotage of Strategic Sociology
Corruption allegations in municipalities and internal party rivalries are of course effective.
These can be partly out of control.
But there are some issues that are directly under the responsibility of the headquarters.
And there is a very dangerous picture here.
Discourse Alienating Kurdish Voters: The Case of Ümit Dikbayır
It is no coincidence that Ümit Dikbayır, who recently joined the CHP, said the following:
“There is no separate political subject called ‘Kurdish people’ in Turkey.”
This statement is this:
- Recognize Kurds as a cultural element
- Refusal as a political subject
This is a clear denial of identity for Kurdish voters.
So the question is:
Why didn't he say that when he was in the IYI Party?
The answer is simple:
Because the CHP is the target.
Kurdish voters turn to CHP for the first time thanks to Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu
re-cooling.
This is political engineering.
Discourse that alienates Alevi voters: The Case of Kayseri Provincial Chairman
The following public statement is even more grave:
“The more I got to know Alevis, the more I admired MHP members.”
This is the promise:
- Denigrates Alevi citizens
- It is a statement that dynamits the historical sociology of the CHP
Here, too, the goal is clear:
Two strategic backbones of the CHP:
- Kurdish voters
- Alevi voters
are being destroyed at the same time.
Question;
The common point in these two cases is this:
CHP Headquarters has gone silent.
Mr. Ozgur Ozel is silent.
No discipline.
There is no political reflex.
No strategic mind.
But these statements are no ordinary gaffes.
These are:
They are the landmines that scattered the coalition of historical voters that the CHP built in 2023.
Conclusion: Who Does Ozgur Ozel's CHP Serve?
CHP today:
- Thawing frozen voters, Kılıçdaroğlu leaves his doctorate
- Silent on discourses that alienate Kurdish and Alevi voters
- Power fails to grow even as it frays
If this picture is not a failure of governance, it is a serious political shortsightedness.
And the question is now legitimate:
Is the CHP led by Özgür Özel trying to come to power?,
Or is it making the government's job easier?
Because sometimes politics is not only about what is done,
It is also guided by what is not done.
And this is the biggest problem in the CHP today.
“Fortune comes to the door, it takes wisdom to let it in.”