A harsh accounting of how miscalculation, faulty strategy and seat ambition can lead a political movement to a dead end.
Captain Should Look in the Mirror if the Goods Have Shifted to the West
In the shipping literature “goods shifted to the west” means that, as a result of improper loading, the ship tilts and the sinking process begins. After this point, it is often not possible to turn back. Sinking is a foregone conclusion.
This is exactly the situation of the main opposition today. The product has shifted to the west.
The ship is lying down. The danger is clear. But the crew is only interested in sucking up to the captain. The ship is sinking, they don't care. So they've taken precautions.
Because it is known: The rats leave the ship first.
Egocentric Captaincy and Blinded Management
It is easy to be a captain in calm seas. It is in the storm that true captaincy is revealed.
Today, the captain sails in the fog of his ego. There is a curtain drawn in front of the truth. Criticism is considered hostility, warning is considered betrayal.
A captain who fills the ship with unnecessary cargo, who fails to clear the rubble, who fails to unload the problem passengers, will end up with his hands tied. Because those loads now belong to him.
The psychology of “a fish out of water” is now dominant. The lure of the seat has taken precedence over responsibility.
But it is not a matter of seats, it is a matter of the country.
Polls, Undecideds and the Big Misunderstanding
The polls are clear. It is clear that an early or timely presidential election cannot be won. The components of the People's Alliance have already exceeded the 50 percent mark. Despite this, they are gambling on the unknown with the hope of “swing voters”.
However, there are no swing voters in Turkey. Undecided voters are only undecided on the survey.
When it comes to the ballot box, everyone is determined. This is a fact that has not changed for years.
This is the main reason why the polling companies are always wrong. They are wrong from election to election, but they do not pay the price. They come out on top like olive oil.
There are exceptions, of course. But this is the general picture.
How Does the Voter Think?
The voter does not think, “Who should I vote for?”.
The question is this:
“Who not to vote for?”
This is the electoral psychology in Turkey. Analyses made in ivory towers are far from the reality of the people eating at the ground table. Most of the so-called swing voters are right-wing voters. And the candidate in their hearts is most of the time the candidate of the People's Alliance.
Those who do not want to see this will face reality on election night.
CHP Reality and Missed Opportunity
If for more than two decades the people have been showing favoritism towards the same leader and party, there is a reason for this. There is a reason “sheep”, “pasta maker” is an excuse for failure.
Today, when the opportunity to power is closer to the CHP than ever before, different voices have been suppressed, the unity within the party has been damaged, experienced names have been excluded, and the ready-made table (Halil İbrahim Table) has been distributed. Those who were full at the table set by the predecessor dispersed the table.
That's no way to captain.
False Candidacy Calculations
The recent portrayal of President Erdoğan as a rival is also a strategic mistake. It is not clear whether he will run or not. The constitutional process and sanction are clear, but the possibility of being a candidate is possible under one condition (⅗ MP proposal).
What happens if there is another candidate? Is there a plan for that? There isn't. Everything is vague. Everything is disorganized. Because there is a “brain trauma” in the administration.
Titanic Syndrome
You strike while the iron is hot. If the temper has run away, patience is required. Haste makes haste.
But what is being done today is the opposite. Captains who do not calculate the iceberg in front of them go down in history by saying “This ship will not sink”.
Titanic was supposed to be unsinkable. It sank on its maiden voyage.
Conclusion: We Have to Face Reality
The hunter who lurks in the wrong place becomes prey. The lion who is king in the field becomes a laughingstock in the circus.
This is where we are today. A government that does not face the facts walks to the inevitable end. It should not be forgotten, “The enemy has no friends!”.
And on a sinking ship, the greatest courage is to look in the mirror first.