The war in the Middle East, which started with the Israeli and US attacks on Iran, should not be seen as a military conflict between these three countries. This development is part of a much broader geopolitical process, both in terms of the Israeli state's understanding of security and the regional strategies of the United States, as well as the balance of power logic of the modern international system.
At the center of Israel's security doctrine is the historical perception of an “existential threat”. From its inception, the state of Israel has seen itself not only as a state, but as the security project of a society that has historically been under constant threat. The Holocaust experience, the 1948 war and the subsequent Arab-Israeli wars have deeply embedded this perception in the political culture. Therefore, in Israeli foreign policy, security is not just a policy area; it is one of the constitutive elements of state identity.
This understanding of security determines Israel's strategic behavior. Israeli strategic culture prefers to neutralize potential threats at an early stage, rather than waiting for them to grow stronger. In this framework, Iran's nuclear program and regional influence are perceived by Tel Aviv not only as a geopolitical rival but also as a long-term existential threat.
At this point, the second pillar of Israel's security strategy, the strategic alliance with the United States, emerges. The relationship between Washington and Tel Aviv is much deeper than a classic diplomatic partnership. In terms of military technology sharing, intelligence cooperation and regional security planning, the US-Israel relationship is one of the strongest strategic alliances in the modern international system. For this reason, military operations against Iran are often not only part of Israel's security doctrine, but also part of the US regional strategy in the Middle East.
Recent developments in the Middle East also show that the threat architecture in Israel's immediate neighborhood is changing. The regime change in Syria, the only neighboring country that has not signed a peace treaty with Israel, and the weakening of the Damascus regime's strategic alliance with Iran have led to a serious erosion of the Tehran-Damascus-Hezbollah axis, which has been an important part of the regional security equation for many years. Similarly, the military and political attrition of Hamas and Hezbollah in recent years has weakened the threat ring in Israel's immediate neighborhood.
However, the weakening of traditional threats in Israel's immediate neighborhood has made the direct strategic competition between the US-Israeli line and Iran more visible. Therefore, the current crisis should be read not only as a regional conflict but also as the new stage of global balance of power politics in the Middle East.
The modern international system, especially since the emergence of the European system of states, is based on the logic of balance of power. States seek to ensure their security not only through their own military capabilities but also through alliance networks. For this reason, regional crises can often take on the character of confronting broader alliance systems.
The picture that is emerging today holds the possibility of a similar geopolitical frontalization. On the one hand, there is a security line with actors such as the United States, Israel, the United Kingdom, France and India, which is increasingly developing strategic coordination. This line is developing a common strategic perspective on energy security, control of maritime trade routes and regional stability.
On the other side, there is a looser but increasingly evident geopolitical rapprochement that Iran has developed with countries such as Russia, China and North Korea. These countries are in competition with the Western-centered international order for different reasons. Therefore, a crisis around Iran could become not only a power struggle in the Middle East but also one of the new fronts of competition in the global system.
At the center of this rivalry is not only security, but also energy and geography. The Gulf region holds a significant portion of the world's oil reserves and plays a critical role in the stability of global energy markets. Iran's geographical location and influence over the Strait of Hormuz make this region one of the most vulnerable points of global energy security.
Therefore, the war between the US-Israeli line and Iran is not just a regional military showdown. The signs of the transition from the era of proxy wars to the era of direct competition between states in the Middle East are becoming more and more evident.
In this new geopolitical environment, it is crucial for regional actors such as Turkey and Azerbaijan to pursue a careful and balanced strategy. The South Caucasus and Anatolia have a critical position in this new balance of power in terms of energy corridors and geopolitical transition areas. The expansion of a regional war could draw these countries into an unwanted geopolitical confrontation.
It is impossible to predict with certainty how long this war, which began with the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, will last and which actors it will involve. But history shows us that crises in which great powers directly or indirectly confront each other often do not end in a short period of time. This is why the US/Israeli-Iranian confrontation could be the beginning of a process that could shape not only today's international balances but also those of the years to come. As seen in World Wars I and II, once a war starts, it is often impossible to predict how long it will last, which geographies will be destroyed, how many people will be killed or maimed, which states will be involved in which alliances and what the economic cost of the war will be. Likewise, it may become increasingly difficult to predict how and when a new balance will be established in the international system.