Republican People's Party (CHP) Chairman Özgür Özel's announcement that a primary election will be held to determine the party's presidential candidate has become one of the most talked about topics in politics in recent days. Following the decision, the team of Gül Çiftçi, Deputy Chairperson in charge of Electoral and Legal Affairs, started working on the expected primary election.
It is claimed that the party will be ready within a period of 20 days after the decision to hold a primary election is taken by the authorized boards of the party.
The primary election is expected to be held in March. If it is held, the election will be completed in one day. How many of the 1 million 600 thousand members will participate in the primary election is a mystery for now. However, it is estimated that a large turnout is not expected. The election will not be held over the internet, but will take the form of voting in a ballot box. The “active membership” system, which was adopted at the last statute convention, will not be applied in the primary election, as it will take effect as of September 2025. In the active membership system, it will be required to be a member for at least one year in order to vote in internal party elections. Concerns voiced on social media in the CHP that any candidate could manipulate the election by registering as a mass member are unrealistic. On the other hand, the primary election process is seen as an opportunity to recruit new members to the party.
How did the polls change Imamoglu's mind?
It is known that it is mostly the demand of Ekrem İmamoğlu and his team that the presidential candidate be determined by the members. The fact that things have come to this point actually dates back to the discussions before the 2023 elections. In those days, circles mostly close to İmamoğlu and some close to Yavaş were saying that the candidate should be evaluated based on the polls and the person who was seen to get the most votes should be the candidate. After the election was lost, the main criticism against Kılıçdaroğlu was why he did not renounce for one of them despite the fact that İmamoğlu and Yavaş were ahead in the polls. In the broadcasts I participated in those days, I stated that it was risky to declare a candidate based solely on the polls, and that this demand could come back to haunt İmamoğlu when the day came. Indeed, there was a change in the CHP and a new administration was elected. However, it is understood that the fact that Mansur Yavaş is seen to be ahead more often in the polls has pushed the Imamoğlu front to a new search, and this is the demand for a primary election due to their greater influence within the party. In any case, although it is known that the CHP will not depend solely on the primary election in determining its candidate, it is also certain that the winner of the primary election will gain a serious advantage. Under the current circumstances, Ekrem İmamoğlu is more likely to win in a primary election based on CHP members.
What are the risks of early candidate identification?
So, should the CHP announce its candidate early? I think the answer to this important question should be discussed in more detail without saying “Yes” and “No” from the beginning. First of all, what are the risks of announcing the CHP candidate early? The objections are generally as follows.
- Announcing a candidate now would distract from the real agenda of the people and drag the party into internal debates. Imamoğlu and Yavaş rivalry divides the party.
- The government is unlikely to call early elections. A candidate announced three years in advance would wear out during this time and a double-headedness would emerge in the party.
- If İmamoğlu is already announced as a candidate, this could lead to the risk of Yavaş leaving the CHP, in which case he could run under a separate umbrella.
- In the process after the candidate is selected, if it is seen that the other candidate receives more votes in the polls, there is no chance to make changes
Özgür Özel created a leadership vacuum
Until two months ago, when I was asked the question “Should a candidate be announced?”, I would say “Absolutely not”, listing the reasons above. But today, I think this issue should be discussed and thought about in a little more detail, because a de facto situation has emerged. Politics is not like math. In mathematics, 2+2=4. However, politics is inevitably affected by the conditions of the day and the emotions of the people.
Today, the moral high ground gained after the local election victory has been squandered by the failure of Özgür Özel's attempts at normalization, the reasons for which are still unclear. The operations carried out by the government by using the judiciary's cudgel and forcing the law are causing great anxiety among the opposition both today and for the future. Under normal circumstances, the opposition should be raised and the government should be forced into early elections. But no one expects such a success from the CHP under Özgür Özel's leadership. The worst part is that saying that he will not be a presidential candidate actually means “I am not the real leader”. People will not stand behind those who have no ambition. It seems difficult for the unorganized society to mobilize on its own and raise the opposition.
Would it be useful to announce the candidate early?
Having listed the risks of declaring a candidate early, can there be the following advantages if it is declared? Let me list them now.
Could the CHP's early announcement of its candidate and his or her rise to prominence and the intensification of the opposition fill the leadership vacuum left by Özel's failure?
Could the early announcement of the candidate trigger a debate in the CHP? Yes, there is that risk. However, when I look at where we are today, sometimes I wish Kılıçdaroğlu had said “I am a candidate” a year before the election, and if Akşener was going to leave, he should have parted ways with her on that day. Perhaps this would have ended İmamoğlu and Yavaş's hopes of becoming candidates early on and prevented them from becoming part of the debate created by Akşener in the CHP public opinion. In the end, it became clear that the protracted process was not in the opposition's favor.
Therefore, if there is going to be an apocalypse, should it come early? Can the candidates draw their road maps accordingly and meet in the middle at the end of the day? Of course, the important thing here is that a possible rivalry is not destructive.
Yes, I have tried to list the possible risks and possible advantages of announcing the candidate early, taking into account the views of the circles defending both views. For this reason, I think that this delicate issue should be discussed in more detail in CHP and democratic circles instead of saying no and no definitively today, and that we should not act in partisanship while making these discussions. We will find the right path by thinking and questioning, like asking and finding Baghdad. But this time we cannot lose. Otherwise, we will be hit even harder. Nothing is more important than the fact that Turkey needs a new government.