Look, there is no need to study political science to understand voters in Turkey. You really don't. Go to the market one day and look at the price of tomatoes. If you feel a slight “boo” when you see the price tag, the economy is not doing well.
This is not just a feeling, the data also says this. In a survey conducted in January 2026, people were asked what Turkey's most important problem was. 42 percent said the economy. Poverty, hardship and the cost of living ranked first. The second most important problem is justice and law with 25.8 percent.
The country has two main problems. Money and justice.
Topics such as security, terrorism and survival have remained in single digits. Issues that have been at the center of politics for years seem to have fallen to the second plan in the minds of voters today. This is because people are first trying to get their household budget in order.
This is not a new picture. Remember the 2001 crisis. Banks failed, people became unemployed, small shopkeepers were shut down. What did the ballot box do in 2002? The coalition government of that period - DSP, ANAP and MHP - was expelled from the parliament. The voters clearly showed that they found the economic management a failure.
Nobody analyzed the global financial system. People looked at their own lives. Did my salary disappear? Is my job secure? Can I pay my debts? The millions who answered no to these questions changed direction at the ballot box.
Then between 2002 and 2007 the economy recovered. Growth came, credit expanded, incomes increased. This time voters rewarded stability. In the 2007 and 2011 elections, there was strong support. Because voters are not romantics. If the economy is good, it does not need grand theories.
But is it only about money?
The issue of justice is not something to be taken lightly. During the February 28 process, some people felt excluded by the system. Party closure cases and especially the closure case against the ruling party in 2008 raised the question of ’is the will that came with my vote being liquidated through the judiciary“ for millions. In the 2010 referendum, people did not vote on the technical details of the articles of the Constitution. They wondered whether it would be fairer if the structure of the judiciary changed, or whether power would be concentrated in another center. In the 2017 system change, the debate was not only about the government model. People asked whether stability would increase or checks and balances would weaken.
So the voter did not read a law book. They weighed their own sense of justice.
Is it for nothing that justice ranks second in today's survey? One can tolerate the hardship for a while. But if he feels that he has been wronged, doesn't it hurt him inside?
The most striking data is this. When asked which party can solve this problem, 55.5 percent answered "none".
In other words, more than half of the society thinks that there is a problem but does not believe that the current parties can solve it. This is not only a dissatisfaction with the government. It also shows that the alternatives fail to create a strong sense of trust. On the one hand, voters criticize the current situation, but on the other hand they are cautious about the options available to them. Everyone is more comfortable in their own neighborhoods, but there is a serious trust deficit in the general picture.
The equation in voters' minds is actually very simple.
Has life gotten harder?
Are my rights protected?
Is there anyone who can really fix this?
Many say yes to the first two questions. There is hesitation on the third question.
Turkey's political history actually says something very clear. When the economy seriously deteriorates, voters punish the current government and change direction. When the sense of justice is damaged, tension in society increases and polarization hardens. But the real break comes when trust is lost. People start to distance themselves not only from one party but from all political actors. Even if they go to the polls, they do so reluctantly, they do not feel excited, they do not believe in the options. When the loss of trust grows, they put an invisible distance between themselves and the system.
It is at this point that politics faces the inevitable.
At this point, the ballot box has the final say.
And when the ballot box speaks, it usually speaks very clearly.