In Turkey, games of chance used to be one of the most risk-free and highest cash generating areas in the hands of the state. Today, the state is only a tax collector in this field. The state does not keep the profits. This is not a technical reform; it is a conscious transfer of wealth.
The issue of games of chance in Turkey is neither a moral debate nor a technical public administration issue, as one might think. It is a direct mirror of a class, political and economic preference. The questions of who wins, who loses, who is protected and who is pushed out of the system are all nakedly visible in this field.
Today, discussions on games of chance are deliberately narrowed down. Titles such as “addiction”, “gambling morality” and “social sensitivity” are emphasized. However, this discourse functions as a veil that hides the bigger picture. The real issue is this: Why has the state withdrawn from one of the most risk-free, cash-generating and crisis-resistant areas of income?
Unless this question is asked, any discussion is incomplete. Because what is happening here is not a reform, but a choice. It is a choice to minimize the role of the state in economic life, to transfer public income to private capital and to make this transfer invisible.
For years, games of chance in Turkey have been one of the instruments of the state's financial sovereignty. The National Lottery, Spor Toto-Iddaa and horse races were fields with almost zero production costs, without any demand risk, able to provide foreign currency inflows and nourishing a wide social ecosystem. In this system, the state was not only the collector of money, but also the actor that directed, redistributed and transformed it into social benefits.
Today, in these areas, the state has been reduced to a mere tax collector. It is no longer the state but private capital that sets the game, manages the market, plans growth and shares the profits. This is not privatization; it is the dismantling of public sovereignty.
The argument that “the state was inefficient”, which is frequently used by privatization advocates, does not correspond to reality. Because games of chance are not an industrial activity in the classical sense. It does not require high technology, high R&D or high production costs. Demand already exists. There is no risk. The claim of inefficiency in such a field is not technical, but ideological.
The real inefficiency is in the current model, in which the public sector is deliberately excluded, supervision is weakened and the illegal market grows. The fact that the volume of illegal betting has reached tens of billions of dollars is not a coincidence; it is the natural consequence of the withdrawal of the public sector. Where there is no state, the mafia grows, not the market.
Therefore, the issue of games of chance is also a matter of law, security and democracy. We are talking about a structure where black money circulates, protected by the power of the media and armored with political immunity. This structure erodes not only the budget but also public oversight.
It is no coincidence that media ownership is concentrated in certain groups simultaneously with the privatization process. This is the most naked form of political economy: Revenue sources, media power and political protection are concentrated in the same hands. In this situation, not talking about public damage is not a deficiency, but a deliberate silence.
Those who still defend this process today by saying “tax revenues have increased” are consciously ignoring the following fact: Tax is not a substitute for profit. Taxes are the minimum share of the state's sovereignty. Profit is sovereignty itself. The state has lost the profit, it has only taken a share.
This picture is not sustainable. Neither economically, socially nor politically. Because it is not only money that is lost here; it is the public's power to direct, its capacity to control and its ability to produce social benefits.
The solution is therefore clear and cannot be postponed: Games of chance must be renationalized. This is not an ideological slogan, but a financial and political necessity. Nationalization means returning profits to the public, strengthening control, narrowing the illegal market and restoring social benefit.
Otherwise, these figures, which are unspoken today, will be seen tomorrow as much larger social and political costs. Public wealth that quietly changes hands will one day return loudly as a social crisis.
Tangible Public Damage: Silent Robbery in Figures
Özelleştirme öncesi dönemde (2010–2017) Spor Toto–İddaa sisteminde devletin net kâr payı ortalama %45–50 bandındaydı. 2017 sonrası ihale ve lisans yapısında bu oran fiilen %8–12 seviyesine düşmüştür. Bu fark, “vergi artışı” ile kapatılabilecek bir kayıp değildir; çünkü vergi, kârın ikamesi değildir.
With a conservative calculation:
- Average annual revenue (İddaa + National Lottery + horse races): 18 billion TL (2017 prices)
• Devletin özelleştirme öncesi net kâr payı: ≈ %45 → 8,1 milyar TL
• Özelleştirme sonrası kamuda kalan efektif pay (vergi + lisans): ≈ %12 → 2,1 milyar TL
➡️ Annual NET PUBLIC LOSS: about 6 billion TL (2017 prices)
When this figure is updated with inflation:
➡️ ANNUAL PUBLIC LOSS in real terms in 2025: 35-40 billion TL
➡️ Total estimated public loss 2018-2025: 250-300 billion TL
This is not a budget item; it is a silent transfer of wealth.
Illegal Betting: Where the State Retreats, the Mafia Thrives
Yasadışı bahis hacmi Türkiye’de 2024 itibarıyla çeşitli emniyet ve MASAK raporlarına göre 45–50 milyar dolar aralığına ulaşmıştır. Bu rakamın sadece %10’unun vergilendirilebilir kamusal alanda kaldığı varsayılsa bile:
Annual escaped potential tax + public share: at least 150-200 billion TL
As the state withdraws from games of chance;
- Control is weakened,
- The licensed area has shrunk,
- The illegal market has exploded.
This is not a coincidence, but a predictable outcome.
Media, License and Political Immunity
Demirören Group's media purchase in 2018 with Ziraat Bank loans is a naked form of political economy in Turkey. The fact that the same group soon acquired the rights to operate the National Lottery, became a key actor in games of chance licenses, and that criticism of these areas through the media virtually evaporated is not a market success, but a concentration of power.
Media ownership + games of chance license + public bank loan = armor of political immunity
Last Word
The figures presented here are conservative. With larger data sets, it will be seen that the public loss is much higher. But even the available data clearly shows that:
This privatization is not a mistake;
It is a choice.
And society pays the price for this choice.
This article is a warning.
And this warning now speaks in numbers.