As of March 2026, the Middle East is experiencing one of the deepest geopolitical ruptures in recent years. Starting on February 28, 2026, the joint US-Israeli operation, dubbed ’Epic Fury“, moved the conflict from the level of proxy forces to a direct inter-state war.
I have summarized this process from an objective perspective, the current picture and my predictions for the future below.
When Will the War End?
The current military dynamics suggest that we are far from a short-term solution.
-Short Term Forecast: The Israeli army and the US administration say that the intensive phase of operations will last at least a few more weeks (until the end of March). However, this will depend on the extent to which Iran's military infrastructure can be paralyzed.
-Medium Term Risk: If the goal is “regime change” and not just a weakening of military capacity, this process is likely to turn into a months-long war of attrition. 2026 is likely to go down in history as a year in which “loose ends” are tied up or the door to new and bigger crises is opened for the region.
Will it spread to the region?
The war has already evolved into a regional dimension, but the “depth” of the expansion is critical:
-The Strait of Hormuz Equation: Boğazın tamamen kapanması küresel bir enerji krizini tetikleyebilir. Şu an için riskler nedeniyle deniz nakliye maliyetleri %20 civarında artmış durumda.
-Substitute Powers Continued asymmetric attacks from Lebanon (Hezbollah), Yemen (Houthis) and Iraq keep the war on a wide geography from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea.
-Gulf Countries: While dealing with the Iranian missile threat, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are also trying to ensure their own security in the new post-war regional architecture.
What Will Russia and China Do?
For the time being, these two giant actors are pursuing “strategic opportunism” and “diplomatic balance” rather than “military intervention”:
Russia in terms of;
Economic Lifeline: The energy supply disruption in the Middle East and rising oil prices provide a major financial source for the sanctions-plagued Russian economy.
Ukraine Connection: The shift of Western attention and ammunition stockpiles to the Middle East strengthens Moscow's hand on the Ukrainian front.
Military Support: By supplying Iran with Su-35 fighter jets and electronic warfare systems, it helps Tehran maintain its strategic depth, but avoids direct confrontation.
China in terms of;
Energy Security: Petrol ithalatının %45-50’si Hürmüz Boğazı’ndan geçen Çin için bu savaş büyük bir tedarik riski. Ancak Çin, son yıllarda yaptığı devasa enerji stokları ve Rusya ile geliştirdiği boru hattı projeleriyle bu şoku birkaç ay göğüsleyebilecek hazırlıkta.
Alternative Routes: As an alternative to Suez and Hormuz, China is putting more weight on routes such as the “Middle Corridor” through Turkey.
Diplomatic Role: By criticizing Western intervention, Beijing is trying to position itself as a “peaceful mediator” and “stabilizing power”.
Turkey in terms of;
1-Energy and Inflation
As an economy that imports most of its energy needs, Turkey is highly sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices.
-Current Deficit and Inflation: According to our calculations, every 10-dollar permanent increase in oil prices increases Turkey's current account deficit by around 2.5 billion dollars and directly adds 1 percentage point to inflation. The settlement of Brent oil in the $80-85 band complicates the disinflation process.
-Natural Gas and LNG: While the risk of a disruption in gas flows from Iran (around 10 bcm/year) is on the table, Turkey's storage capacity and LNG terminals, which it has increased in recent years, make this shock softer than in 2021-2022. However, the rise in global LNG prices continues to push up industrial costs.
2-Trade Routes
Security risks on maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal have made land and rail transportation a vital “Plan B”.
-Middle Corridor and Development Road: The 4-5 times increase in sea freight rates has maximized the strategic value of the “Central Corridor” (Caspian transit) from China to Europe and the “Development Road” projects that will connect to Mersin port via Iraq. In this crisis, Turkey is moving from being a “transit state” to becoming a “multidimensional logistics power”.
-Syria-Jordan Line: The land trade corridor to Jordan and the Gulf countries through Syria, which was on the agenda in early 2026, is seen as one of the strongest alternatives to the congestion on sea routes.
3-Financial Markets and Security
-EUR Volatility: In the early days of the war, the CBRT intervened with instruments such as forward foreign exchange sales to prevent excessive volatility in foreign exchange markets. Uncertainty in the region is putting pressure on the Turkish Lira as investors seek a “safe haven”.
-Jeopolitical Risk Premium: Mobility on Turkey's eastern border and the risk of a new wave of migration have the potential to affect the country's CDS premiums (risk premium) and raise external borrowing costs.
In short, this process is a “double-edged sword” for Turkey. On the one hand, there are rising energy costs and inflationary pressures, while on the other, Turkey will become an indispensable logistics hub as global trade routes are redefined. The duration of the war and the degree of stability in Iran will determine which of these two effects will prevail.
The current situation resembles a “Great Reset” phase in which the global balance of power is being redefined.
Turkey can overcome this situation with minimal damage by reading the situation well.
The end of the war will depend on the resilience of Iran's internal dynamics and the time it takes for the US-Israeli alliance to achieve its operational objectives.
There will be no winners in this war; everyone will lose.