The language of states is not conscience. The language of states is interest and power. The only thing that breaks this language is the price. A state does not stop when it sees that there is no serious cost for its actions. To understand Israel's recent course “intention” not to read the order, but to read the order. Because there is a system and it works: There is a reaction, but no price.
First, the balance sheet: According to updates provided by OCHA, the UN's mechanism on the ground (based on data from the Gaza Ministry of Health), 71,439 people have been killed and 171,324 injured in Gaza since October 7, 2023.
To understand why the US protects Israel, one must first recognize this fact: This relationship is not a day-to-day political affinity; it is an institutionalized commitment. The US-Israel Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), signed in 2016, provides for a framework of military aid totaling $38 billion for the period 2019-2028. This support is not only for weapons, but also to counter international pressure. “protected area” means.
The UN Security Council is the main place where international pressure can translate into real sanctions. But in the Council, one word paralyzes the law: veto. According to Reuters, the United States vetoed a resolution demanding a permanent/unconditional ceasefire in Gaza by 2025. This practice produces the following result: Even if there is a backlash, the chances of binding costs are slim.
On the one hand, the law is at work. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Gallant on suspicion of war crimes and crimes against humanity. The case is no longer a political polemic, but a criminal case. But deterrence is not measured by the weight of the verdict, but by the consequences of the verdict. If the verdict remains on paper, impunity grows.
So what did Turkey do?
In 2024, export restrictions were first imposed on 54 product groups to Israel, and then on May 2, 2024, as reported by Reuters, it was announced that all imports and exports with Israel were suspended. Turkey also announced its intervention in South Africa's case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and submitted its notice of intervention to the Court. Reuters reported that steps to tighten the implementation of this trade ban after 2024 are also on the agenda.
However “is it enough?” The honest answer is that Turkey's actions reinforce the political message, but on their own they are unlikely to generate the global price that will change behavior on the ground. Reuters' assessment, based on a Bank of Israel report, suggests that the impact of Turkey's trade embargo on the Israeli economy and prices may be limited, with Israel only partially able to substitute its supply channels.
The reason why other states talk tough and then back down is often not moral volatility, but a calculation of interest-risk. Words are easy; action is hard. Tough action comes with a price, and many states do not want to bear that price.
What can be done? “We are worried” phrases no longer have any meaning; concrete steps are needed. A supervised and binding ceasefire mechanism must be established and its implementation on the ground must be monitored by international observation. Humanitarian aid access must not be negotiated and must be guaranteed uninterruptedly and safely.
Impunity is fueled by the absence of redress, which is why arms transfers and military support should be suspended as long as the risk of violations persists, and targeted sanctions (financial restrictions, travel bans, etc.) should be imposed on decision-makers. Finally, ICC proceedings should not be politicized, and states should openly embrace the legal process to ensure that court rulings are a deterrent, not a symbol.
The conclusion is clear: Israel has the courage “justified” It takes it from the system of impunity and lack of sanctions that the world has established for years. It is not possible to change the picture on the ground without changing this order.