Bilardo oynayanlar bilir: Oyuncu \u0131stakayla topa vurur, hedef bellidir ama sonu\u00e7 her zaman planl\u0131 ilerlemez. Top gider, ba\u015fka bir topa tesad\u00fcfen \u00e7arpar ve say\u0131 olur. Ad\u0131 \u201ckarambol.\u201d Yani maharet ile tesad\u00fcf\u00fcn i\u00e7 i\u00e7e ge\u00e7ti\u011fi, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman da \u015fans\u0131n haneye yaz\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir sonu\u00e7\u2026<\/p>\n
Siyasette de benzer durumlar vard\u0131r. Plan, program, strateji anlat\u0131l\u0131r; fakat netice \u00e7o\u011fu zaman r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcne, konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn sertli\u011fine ve se\u00e7menin o anki psikolojisine ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130\u015fte tam da bu noktada \u201ckarambol siyaset\u201d devreye girer: \u00dcretilmi\u015f ba\u015far\u0131 ile elde edilmi\u015f ba\u015far\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n bulan\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 alan\u2026<\/p>\n
Be\u015f ayl\u0131k ba\u015fkanl\u0131k performans\u0131yla girilen se\u00e7imde, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemin birikimi \u00fczerinden al\u0131nan oy(2023 Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7iminde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan yakla\u015f\u0131k %48\u2019lik ba\u015far\u0131) bir t\u00fcr haz\u0131r kredi gibi kullan\u0131ld\u0131. Bu kredi, yeni bir \u00fcretimin de\u011fil, eski birikimin faizi gibiydi. Aradan ge\u00e7en s\u00fcre\u00e7te yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 puanl\u0131k erime ya\u015fanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan tablo h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u201cba\u015far\u0131\u201d olarak sunuluyor.<\/p>\n
Oysa burada sorulmas\u0131 gereken basit bir soru var:
\nGer\u00e7ekten kazan\u0131lan ne?<\/p>\n
Birinci olmak m\u0131, yoksa g\u00fc\u00e7lenmek mi?
\nSe\u00e7imi almak m\u0131, yoksa se\u00e7meni ikna etmek mi?<\/p>\n
\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc siyaset yaln\u0131zca s\u0131ralama meselesi de\u011fildir; s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir g\u00fc\u00e7, toplumsal r\u0131za ve kar\u015f\u0131 bloktan oy dev\u015firme kapasitesiyle \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcr. \u00d6zellikle Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sistemi gibi %50+1 e\u015fi\u011finin belirleyici oldu\u011fu bir d\u00fczende, kendi mahallesini konsolide etmek yetmez. Kar\u015f\u0131dan oy alamayan her yap\u0131, ne kadar y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrse g\u00f6r\u00fcns\u00fcn, asl\u0131nda tavan\u0131na \u00e7arpm\u0131\u015f demektir.<\/p>\n
Anket \u015firketleri ise bu bulan\u0131k zeminin en aktif akt\u00f6rlerinden biri haline gelmi\u015f durumda. \u00d6l\u00e7mekten \u00e7ok y\u00f6nlendiren, analiz etmekten \u00e7ok beklenti \u00fcreten bir mekanizma\u2026 Oysa onlar da bilir: Ger\u00e7ek veri, se\u00e7menin sand\u0131kta verdi\u011fi karard\u0131r. Ama veri ile alg\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki mesafe a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131k\u00e7a, anketler bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm arac\u0131 olmaktan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p birer psikolojik harp unsuru haline gelir.<\/p>\n
Yerel se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 olu\u015fan psikolojik \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck ise ayr\u0131 bir ba\u015fl\u0131k. Siyasette momentum dedi\u011fimiz \u015fey, nadir yakalan\u0131r ve iyi y\u00f6netilmezse h\u0131zla kaybolur. Bu \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck, politika \u00fcretimiyle, kapsay\u0131c\u0131 s\u00f6ylemle ve geni\u015fleme stratejisiyle tahkim edilmeliydi. Fakat g\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki bu f\u0131rsat, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir avantaja d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclemedi.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn gelinen noktada ise d\u0131\u015f geli\u015fmelerin (ekonomik, diplomatik ve jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n) iktidar lehine alan a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Tam da b\u00f6yle bir konjonkt\u00fcrde \u201cara se\u00e7im\u201d ya da erken se\u00e7im tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelmesi, siyasi ak\u0131l a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan sorgulanmay\u0131 hak ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu bir \u00f6zg\u00fcven mi, yoksa bir tela\u015f m\u0131?<\/p>\n
Yenilmeye oynayan kumarbaz\u0131n o tuhaf psikolojisi burada devreye giriyor: Kaybettik\u00e7e daha \u00e7ok oynamak, risk b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck\u00e7e daha fazla risk almak\u2026 \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bazen mesele kazanmak de\u011fil, masada kalmakt\u0131r. Ve bazen de mesele, yakla\u015fan bir kayb\u0131 geciktirmektir.<\/p>\n
Bir ba\u015fka ihtimal daha var:
\nS\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015fl\u0131k\u2026<\/p>\n
Siyaset yaln\u0131zca se\u00e7menle de\u011fil, parti i\u00e7i dengelerle, ittifak ili\u015fkileriyle ve liderlik tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131yla da \u015fekillenir. Bu t\u00fcr d\u00f6nemlerde erken hamleler, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman rakibe de\u011fil, i\u00e7eriye mesaj verir. \u201cKontrol bende\u201d demenin bir yolu olarak okunur.<\/p>\n
Ancak her hamlenin bir maliyeti vard\u0131r.
\nVe her yanl\u0131\u015f zamanlama, en do\u011fru stratejiyi bile bo\u015fa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n
\u015earam politik dedi\u011fimiz \u015fey tam da burada ba\u015flar:
\nKarambolle kazan\u0131lan\u0131n strateji zannedilmesi\u2026
\n\u015eans\u0131n, maharet yerine konulmas\u0131\u2026
\nGe\u00e7ici \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn kal\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 san\u0131lmas\u0131\u2026<\/p>\n
Ve ard\u0131ndan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz son:
\n\u015earampol\u2026<\/p>\n
\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc siyaset, tesad\u00fcflerin de\u011fil, s\u00fcreklili\u011fin oyunudur.
\nVe s\u00fcreklilik, yaln\u0131zca kazanmakla de\u011fil, kazanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmekle m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Ben anlad\u0131m.
\nSiz de anlad\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n
Anlayan, anlamayana anlats\u0131n.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc siyaset, tesad\u00fcflerin de\u011fil, s\u00fcreklili\u011fin oyunudur.
\nVe s\u00fcreklilik, yaln\u0131zca kazanmakla de\u011fil, kazanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmekle m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":285361,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[286],"tags":[289],"class_list":{"0":"post-285360","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-yazarlar","8":"tag-manset"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285360","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=285360"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285360\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":285362,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285360\/revisions\/285362"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/285361"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=285360"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=285360"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=285360"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}