{"id":284185,"date":"2026-03-24T05:10:52","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T05:10:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/?p=284185"},"modified":"2026-03-24T05:10:52","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T05:10:52","slug":"nicht-preis-sondern-preisschwelle-63-tl-soziale-und-wirtschaftliche-bedeutung-von-benzin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/nicht-preis-sondern-preisschwelle-63-tl-soziale-und-wirtschaftliche-bedeutung-von-benzin\/","title":{"rendered":"Nicht Preis, Schwelle: 63 TL Soziale und wirtschaftliche Bedeutung von Benzin"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ekonomik tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck problemi, ger\u00e7e\u011fi yanl\u0131\u015f yerden okumakt\u0131r. \u0130nsanlar h\u00e2l\u00e2 fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 \u201czam\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Oysa baz\u0131 fiyatlar vard\u0131r ki art\u0131k art\u0131\u015f de\u011fildir, <strong>e\u015fiktir<\/strong>. Benzinin 63 TL\u2019ye, motorinin 74 TL\u2019ye gelmesi tam olarak b\u00f6yle bir e\u015fiktir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu rakamlar bir maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011fildir.<br \/>\nBu rakamlar bir <strong>d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn g\u00f6stergesidir<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc akaryak\u0131t, klasik anlamda bir t\u00fcketim \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fildir. Bir telefon gibi ertelenebilir, bir k\u0131yafet gibi vazge\u00e7ilebilir bir kalem de\u011fildir. Akaryak\u0131t modern ekonominin dola\u015f\u0131m sistemidir. Bir \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn de\u011fer kazanabilmesi i\u00e7in hareket etmesi gerekir. Tarladaki \u00fcr\u00fcn kamyona binmeden ekonomik de\u011fildir. Fabrikadaki \u00fcretim da\u011f\u0131t\u0131ma \u00e7\u0131kmadan piyasaya girmez. Market raf\u0131na ula\u015fmayan hi\u00e7bir \u015fey ekonomik anlam ta\u015f\u0131maz.<\/p>\n<p>Bu y\u00fczden akaryak\u0131t\u0131n fiyat\u0131, sadece bir maliyet de\u011fil, <strong>ekonominin tamam\u0131n\u0131n referans\u0131d\u0131r<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Ama as\u0131l mesele burada bile de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>As\u0131l mesele, bu fiyatlar\u0131n toplum taraf\u0131ndan nas\u0131l alg\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de son y\u0131llarda ya\u015fanan en kritik k\u0131r\u0131lma ekonomik de\u011fil, zihinseldir. 20 TL\u2019nin \u015fok say\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, 30 TL\u2019nin kriz olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir ortamdan, 63 TL\u2019nin \u201cal\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u201d kabul edildi\u011fi bir noktaya gelindi. Bu, fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha derin bir \u015feydir.<\/p>\n<p>Diese hier, <strong>normalle\u015fmedir<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Ve ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan en tehlikeli s\u00fcre\u00e7 budur.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bir toplum fiyatlara al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 kritik de\u011fi\u015fim ya\u015fan\u0131r:<\/p>\n<p>Birincisi, kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yetene\u011fi kaybolur. \u0130nsanlar ge\u00e7mi\u015fle bug\u00fcn\u00fc k\u0131yaslamaz. Art\u0131\u015f bir \u015fok olarak de\u011fil, s\u00fcreklilik olarak alg\u0131lan\u0131r. \u201cEskiden neydi?\u201d sorusu ortadan kalkar.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kincisi, tepki \u00fcretme refleksi zay\u0131flar. Zam art\u0131k istisna de\u011fil, sistemin bir par\u00e7as\u0131 haline gelir. \u0130nsanlar itiraz etmez \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc beklenen bir \u015feyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc ve en \u00f6nemlisi, ya\u015fam standard\u0131 sessizce d\u00fc\u015fer. \u0130nsanlar daha az t\u00fcketmeye de\u011fil, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kaliteye raz\u0131 olmaya ba\u015flar. Ayn\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc al\u0131r ama daha k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc al\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 hayat\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zanneder ama asl\u0131nda daha dar bir hayat ya\u015far.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fte bu noktada ekonomi teknik bir alan olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kar,<br \/>\n<strong>sosyolojik bir yap\u0131ya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de bug\u00fcn ya\u015fanan tam olarak budur.<\/p>\n<p>63 TL\u2019lik benzin sadece maliyet bask\u0131s\u0131 yaratmaz. Ayn\u0131 zamanda bir psikolojik referans \u00fcretir. \u0130nsanlar benzini g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde \u015funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHer \u015fey artacak.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Ve bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kendi kendini do\u011frular.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 art\u0131k maliyet odakl\u0131 de\u011fil, beklenti odakl\u0131d\u0131r. \u00dcretici bug\u00fcnk\u00fc maliyete g\u00f6re de\u011fil, yar\u0131n olu\u015facak maliyete g\u00f6re fiyat belirler. Esnaf kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 beklemez, \u00f6nceden fiyat art\u0131r\u0131r. Da\u011f\u0131t\u0131c\u0131 hen\u00fcz maliyet yans\u0131madan fiyat g\u00fcnceller.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durum klasik enflasyon tan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 a\u015far.<\/p>\n<p>Diese hier, <strong>beklenti temelli enflasyondur.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ve bu noktada \u00e7ok sert bir ger\u00e7ek ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar:<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de enflasyon art\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen bir veri de\u011fil,<br \/>\ntoplumsal bir davran\u0131\u015f bi\u00e7imidir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu y\u00fczden 63 TL\u2019yi anlamak i\u00e7in ekonomi bilgisi yetmez.<br \/>\nToplumu anlamak gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc mesele fiyat\u0131n ne oldu\u011fu de\u011fil,<br \/>\no fiyata ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Ve belki de en sert c\u00fcmle burada kurulmal\u0131:<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de insanlar art\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131n neden artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sormuyor.<br \/>\nSadece ne kadar artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 merak ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu, kriz de\u011fil.<br \/>\nBu, krizin <strong>kabul edilmi\u015f hali<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>DI\u015eARIDA BA\u015eLAYAN F\u0130YAT: \u0130RAN\u2013\u0130SRA\u0130L GER\u0130L\u0130M\u0130, H\u00dcRM\u00dcZ BO\u011eAZI VE BRENT PETROL\u00dcN G\u0130ZL\u0130 MEKAN\u0130ZMASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bir \u00fclkede akaryak\u0131t fiyat\u0131n\u0131 anlamak istiyorsan, o \u00fclkenin ekonomi politikalar\u0131na bakmak yeterli de\u011fildir. T\u00fcrkiye gibi enerjiye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bir \u00fclkede fiyat\u0131n kayna\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7eride de\u011fil, <strong>d\u0131\u015far\u0131dad\u0131r<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Bu y\u00fczden 63 TL\u2019yi anlamak i\u00e7in Ankara\u2019ya de\u011fil,<br \/>\nOrta Do\u011fu\u2019ya bakmak gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>Ve o haritan\u0131n merkezinde iki \u015fey vard\u0131r:<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ran\u2013\u0130srail gerilimi<br \/>\nH\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131<\/p>\n<p><strong>1. \u0130RAN\u2013\u0130SRA\u0130L: ASKER\u0130 GER\u0130L\u0130M DE\u011e\u0130L, ENERJ\u0130 GER\u0130L\u0130M\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0130ran ile \u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00e7o\u011fu zaman yanl\u0131\u015f okunur. Bu durum sadece iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki askeri gerilim gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Oysa bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n as\u0131l etkisi askeri de\u011fil, ekonomiktir.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130ran:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>D\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nemli petrol \u00fcreticilerinden biridir<\/li>\n<li>Ayn\u0131 zamanda k\u00fcresel enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n kilit noktalar\u0131ndan birine sahiptir<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Yani mesele sadece \u201ckim kime sald\u0131rd\u0131\u201d de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>Das eigentliche Problem ist dieses:<\/p>\n<p>Bu gerilim petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tehdit eder mi?<\/p>\n<p>Bu soru soruldu\u011fu anda bile fiyat de\u011fi\u015fir.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc modern enerji piyasas\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekler de\u011fil,<br \/>\n<strong>ihtimaller fiyatlan\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>2. H\u00dcRM\u00dcZ BO\u011eAZI: D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130N\u0130N DAR GE\u00c7\u0130D\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 s\u0131radan bir co\u011frafi ge\u00e7it de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu, d\u00fcnya petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi noktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Was soll das bedeuten?<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin be\u015fte biri, tek bir dar ge\u00e7ide ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Bu y\u00fczden H\u00fcrm\u00fcz:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Stratejik de\u011fil<\/li>\n<li>Kritik de\u011fil<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Do\u011frudan <strong>bo\u011fazlanma noktas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Burada ya\u015fanacak bir kriz \u015fu sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 do\u011furur:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Tanker ge\u00e7i\u015fleri riskli hale gelir<\/li>\n<li>Sigorta maliyetleri artar<\/li>\n<li>Nakliye fiyatlar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rar<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ama en \u00f6nemlisi:<\/p>\n<p>Petrol kesilmese bile fiyat artar.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasa \u015funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYa kesilirse?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Ve bu ihtimal bile fiyat \u00fcretir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>3. BRENT PETROL: B\u0130R EMT\u0130A DE\u011e\u0130L, JEOPOL\u0130T\u0130K TERMOMETRE<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Brent petrol fiyat\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu ki\u015fi i\u00e7in sadece bir say\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>Oysa bu say\u0131, k\u00fcresel gerilimin anl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesidir.<\/p>\n<p>Petrol fiyat\u0131 y\u00fckseldi\u011finde bu sadece arz-talep meselesi de\u011fildir.<br \/>\nBu, riskin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eu e\u015fikleri net koyal\u0131m:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>80\u201390 dolar \u2192 kontroll\u00fc gerginlik<\/li>\n<li>100 dolar \u2192 psikolojik e\u015fik<\/li>\n<li>110\u2013120 dolar \u2192 kriz fiyatlamas\u0131<\/li>\n<li>130 ve \u00fczeri \u2192 sistemik \u015fok<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu seviyeler sadece enerji piyasas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil,<br \/>\nt\u00fcm d\u00fcnya ekonomisini etkiler.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc petrol:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u00dcretimin girdisi<\/li>\n<li>Ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n yak\u0131t\u0131<\/li>\n<li>Sanayinin temelidir<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>4. F\u0130YATLAR GER\u00c7EKL\u0130\u011e\u0130 DE\u011e\u0130L, GELECE\u011e\u0130 SATIN ALIR<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ekonomide en b\u00fcy\u00fck yan\u0131lg\u0131 \u015fudur:<\/p>\n<p>Fiyatlar\u0131n mevcut duruma g\u00f6re olu\u015ftu\u011fu san\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Oysa ger\u00e7ek tam tersidir:<\/p>\n<p>Fiyatlar gelecekteki riske g\u00f6re olu\u015fur.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ran\u2013\u0130srail gerilimi bug\u00fcn fiziksel bir kesinti yaratmasa bile,<br \/>\nyar\u0131n yaratma ihtimali fiyat\u0131 bug\u00fcn art\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu y\u00fczden petrol piyasas\u0131:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Rasyonel de\u011fildir<\/li>\n<li>Ama irrasyonel de de\u011fildir<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Beklenti temellidir.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>5. T\u00dcRK\u0130YE NEDEN BU S\u0130STEMDE DAHA FAZLA ETK\u0130LEN\u0130R?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi kritik noktaya geliyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Ayn\u0131 petrol art\u0131\u015f\u0131 neden T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de daha sert hissedilir?<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r<\/li>\n<li>D\u00f6vizle al\u0131m yapar<\/li>\n<li>Kur hassasiyeti y\u00fcksektir<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Yani T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in s\u00fcre\u00e7 iki a\u015famal\u0131d\u0131r:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Petrol artar<\/li>\n<li>Kur etkisiyle maliyet katlan\u0131r<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Bu y\u00fczden T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de petrol art\u0131\u015f\u0131:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Yava\u015f hissedilmez<\/li>\n<li>Do\u011frudan \u00e7arpan etkisi yarat\u0131r<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>6. 63 TL\u2019N\u0130N GER\u00c7EK ANLAMI<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi ba\u015fa d\u00f6nelim.<\/p>\n<p>Benzin 63 TL.<\/p>\n<p>Bu fiyat:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de olu\u015fmaz<\/li>\n<li>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de sadece g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale gelir<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu fiyat\u0131n i\u00e7inde \u015funlar vard\u0131r:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u0130ran\u2013\u0130srail gerilimi<\/li>\n<li>H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski<\/li>\n<li>Brent petrol beklentisi<\/li>\n<li>K\u00fcresel enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Yani sen asl\u0131nda:<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini de\u011fil,<br \/>\nk\u00fcresel enerji sistemini \u00f6d\u00fcyorsun.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de insanlar fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7eride tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Aber die Wahrheit ist folgende:<\/p>\n<p>Fiyat d\u0131\u015far\u0131da do\u011far,<br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye\u2019de sadece etiket olur.<\/p>\n<p><strong>KUR GER\u00c7E\u011e\u0130: T\u00dcRK\u0130YE PETROL \u015eOKUNU YA\u015eAMAZ, \u00c7\u0130FT DARBEYLE EZ\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdiye kadar d\u0131\u015far\u0131y\u0131 kurduk:<br \/>\n\u0130ran\u2013\u0130srail gerilimi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, Brent petrol\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Ama T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi as\u0131l farkl\u0131 k\u0131lan bu de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>As\u0131l fark \u015fu:<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye petrol art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na ya\u015famaz.<br \/>\nAyn\u0131 anda <strong>kur \u015fokuyla birlikte ya\u015far.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fte bu y\u00fczden T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yava\u015f ilerlemez.<br \/>\n<strong>S\u0131\u00e7rar.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>1. NORMAL B\u0130R EKONOM\u0130DE NE OLUR?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Diyelim ki petrol fiyat\u0131 %20 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Geli\u015fmi\u015f bir ekonomide bunun etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Enerji maliyeti artar<\/li>\n<li>Ama kur stabil oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in ikinci bir darbe olu\u015fmaz<\/li>\n<li>Sistem bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131 k\u0131smen absorbe eder<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Yani fiyat artar ama <strong>kontroll\u00fc artar<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019DE AYNI \u015eOK NASIL B\u00dcY\u00dcR?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ayn\u0131 anda ikinci bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 ba\u015flar:<\/p>\n<p>Kur bask\u0131lan\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Petrol artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Enerji faturas\u0131 y\u00fckselir<\/li>\n<li>Cari a\u00e7\u0131k artar<\/li>\n<li>D\u00f6vize talep y\u00fckselir<\/li>\n<li>Kur yukar\u0131 gider<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ve i\u015fte burada kritik k\u0131r\u0131lma olu\u015fur:<\/p>\n<p>Ayn\u0131 maliyet ikinci kez artar.<\/p>\n<p>Ich meine:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Petrol maliyeti artar<\/li>\n<li>Kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla tekrar artar<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu y\u00fczden T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de fiyat sistemi d\u00fcz de\u011fil,<br \/>\n<strong>katmanl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>3. BU B\u0130R EKONOM\u0130 DE\u011e\u0130L, \u00c7ARPAN MEKAN\u0130ZMASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Basit d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Petrol %20 artt\u0131<\/li>\n<li>Kur %20 artt\u0131<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Toplam etki %40 m\u0131 olur?<\/p>\n<p>Nein, nein, nein.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc maliyetler birbirinin \u00fczerine biner.<\/p>\n<p>Schlussfolgerung:<\/p>\n<p>%40\u2019a yak\u0131n de\u011fil, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman <strong>daha y\u00fcksek toplam etki<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bu y\u00fczden T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Do\u011frusal de\u011fildir<\/li>\n<li>Katlanarak b\u00fcy\u00fcr<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>4. 63 TL VE 74 TL BU S\u0130STEM\u0130N SONUCUDUR<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Heute:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Benzin 63 TL<\/li>\n<li>Motorin 74 TL<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu fiyatlar sadece petrol\u00fcn sonucu de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>Diese sind:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Petrol fiyat\u0131<\/li>\n<li>Kur seviyesi<\/li>\n<li>Vergi y\u00fck\u00fc<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn birle\u015fimidir.<\/p>\n<p>Ama bu \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u00e7inde en agresif olan hangisi?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Kur <\/strong>Weil:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Petrol dalgalan\u0131r<\/li>\n<li>Ama kur y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket eder<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ve y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket eden \u015fey, sistemi s\u00fcr\u00fckler.<\/p>\n<p><strong>5. EN KR\u0130T\u0130K KIRILMA: GEL\u0130R VE MAL\u0130YET AYRI D\u00dcNYALARDA<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi i\u015fin en sert yerine geliyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>In der T\u00fcrkei:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Gelir TL<\/li>\n<li>Maliyet dolar<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu \u015fu anlama gelir:<\/p>\n<p>Sen yerel kazan\u0131rs\u0131n,<br \/>\nk\u00fcresel \u00f6dersin.<\/p>\n<p>Bu sistemde ne olur?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Kur artt\u0131k\u00e7a fiyat artar<\/li>\n<li>Ama maa\u015f ayn\u0131 h\u0131zda artmaz<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Schlussfolgerung:<\/p>\n<p>S\u00fcrekli, yava\u015f ve fark edilmeden ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen fakirle\u015fme<\/p>\n<p>Bu fakirle\u015fme ba\u011f\u0131rmaz.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Bir anda \u00e7\u00f6kmezsin<\/li>\n<li>Ama her ay biraz daha kaybedersin<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Und die gef\u00e4hrlichsten:<\/p>\n<p>Bunu \u201cnormal hayat\u201d san\u0131rs\u0131n.<\/p>\n<p><strong>6. EN SERT GER\u00c7EK<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Art\u0131k mekanizma net:<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de fiyat\u0131:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Ne sadece petrol belirler<\/li>\n<li>Ne sadece vergi belirler<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Fiyat\u0131 belirleyen \u015fey:<br \/>\n<strong>petrol + kur birle\u015fimidir<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ve bu birle\u015fim d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan gelir.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de insanlar fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7eride tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Ama ger\u00e7ek \u015fudur:<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de fiyat sistemi i\u00e7eride kurulmaz.<br \/>\nD\u0131\u015far\u0131da olu\u015fur, i\u00e7eride hissedilir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>E\u015eEL MOB\u0130L: F\u0130YATI D\u00dc\u015e\u00dcRMEZ, GER\u00c7E\u011e\u0130 GEC\u0130KT\u0130R\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de akaryak\u0131t fiyat\u0131 konu\u015fulurken en \u00e7ok kullan\u0131lan kavramlardan biri \u201ce\u015fel mobil\u201d. Ama bu kavram\u0131n ne oldu\u011fu genelde ya yanl\u0131\u015f anlat\u0131l\u0131yor ya da bilin\u00e7li \u015fekilde yumu\u015fat\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Genel anlat\u0131 \u015fu:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cDevlet devreye giriyor, vergiyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor, vatanda\u015f\u0131 koruyor.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Bu anlat\u0131 eksik de\u011fil, yanl\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc e\u015fel mobil fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren bir sistem de\u011fildir.<br \/>\n<strong>Fiyat\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftiren bir sistemdir.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>1. MEKAN\u0130ZMA: NASIL \u00c7ALI\u015eIR?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Mant\u0131k basit:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Petrol artar<\/li>\n<li>Kur artar<\/li>\n<li>Normalde fiyat h\u0131zla y\u00fckselir<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ama devlet ne yapar?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u00d6TV\u2019yi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr<\/li>\n<li>Art\u0131\u015f\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 pompaya yans\u0131tmaz<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Schlussfolgerung:<\/p>\n<p>Fiyat daha az artm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>Ama burada kritik soru \u015fudur:<\/p>\n<p>Artan maliyet ne oldu?<\/p>\n<p>Ortadan kalkmad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. GER\u00c7EK: MAL\u0130YET YOK OLMAZ, YER DE\u011e\u0130\u015eT\u0130R\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>E\u015fel mobilin en kritik noktas\u0131 buras\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Maliyet:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Silinmez<\/li>\n<li>Yok edilmez<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Sadece:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Zamana yay\u0131l\u0131r<\/li>\n<li>Ba\u015fka bir kanala aktar\u0131l\u0131r<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Yani sen bug\u00fcn pompada daha az \u00f6dedi\u011fini zannedersin.<\/p>\n<p>Ama asl\u0131nda:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Devlet o farktan vazge\u00e7er<\/li>\n<li>B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fur<\/li>\n<li>Bu a\u00e7\u0131k ba\u015fka yollarla kapat\u0131l\u0131r<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Wie?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Ausleihe<\/li>\n<li>Para geni\u015flemesi<\/li>\n<li>Dolayl\u0131 vergi art\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ve sonu\u00e7ta:<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6demedi\u011fin fark, sana geri d\u00f6ner.<\/p>\n<p><strong>3. G\u0130ZL\u0130 D\u00d6NG\u00dc: S\u0130STEM KEND\u0130N\u0130 BESLER<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>E\u015fel mobil k\u0131sa vadede rahatlat\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Ama orta vadede \u015fu d\u00f6ng\u00fcy\u00fc \u00fcretir:<\/p>\n<p>Maliyet artar \u2192 vergi d\u00fc\u015fer \u2192 b\u00fct\u00e7e bozulur \u2192 kur artar \u2192 maliyet tekrar artar<\/p>\n<p>Bu d\u00f6ng\u00fc \u00e7ok kritik.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc burada \u015funu g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz:<\/p>\n<p>E\u015fel mobil sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zmez.<br \/>\nSorunu b\u00fcy\u00fcten bir geri besleme \u00fcretir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>4. NEDEN S\u00dcRD\u00dcR\u00dcLEMEZ?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>E\u015fel mobilin bir s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Vergi sonsuza kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclemez.<\/p>\n<p>Bir noktada:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u00d6TV s\u0131f\u0131ra yakla\u015f\u0131r<\/li>\n<li>Devlet gelir kayb\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yamaz<\/li>\n<li>Sistem dayanamaz<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ve o noktada:<\/p>\n<p>Bast\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f maliyet bir anda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fte T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de zaman zaman ya\u015fanan \u201cani zamlar\u201d\u0131n sebebi budur.<\/p>\n<p>Bu zamlar asl\u0131nda yeni de\u011fildir.<br \/>\n<strong>Gecikmi\u015f zamd\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>5. EN TEHL\u0130KEL\u0130 TARAF: ALGI Y\u00d6NET\u0130M\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>E\u015fel mobil sadece ekonomik bir ara\u00e7 de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>Ayn\u0131 zamanda psikolojik bir ara\u00e7t\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc insanlar \u015funu g\u00f6r\u00fcr:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFiyat o kadar da artmad\u0131.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Ama g\u00f6rmedikleri \u015fey \u015fudur:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Maliyet art\u0131yor<\/li>\n<li>Sistem geriliyor<\/li>\n<li>Risk birikiyor<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Yani ger\u00e7ek saklanmaz,<br \/>\n<strong>geciktirilir.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bu da tepkiyi azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Ve tepki azald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sistem sorgulanmaz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>6. 63 TL VE 74 TL\u2019N\u0130N ARKA PLANI<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Heute:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Benzin 63 TL<\/li>\n<li>Motorin 74 TL<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu fiyatlar sadece piyasa sonucu de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>Diese sind:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Petrol maliyeti<\/li>\n<li>Kur etkisi<\/li>\n<li>Vergi ayarlamalar\u0131<\/li>\n<li>E\u015fel mobil benzeri m\u00fcdahaleler<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>birle\u015fiminin sonucudur.<\/p>\n<p>Yani g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn fiyat:<\/p>\n<p>Ekonominin \u00fcretti\u011fi ger\u00e7ek fiyat de\u011fil,<br \/>\ny\u00f6netilmi\u015f bir dengedir.<\/p>\n<p>E\u015fel mobil:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmez<\/li>\n<li>Ger\u00e7e\u011fi ortadan kald\u0131rmaz<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Sadece zaman\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirir.<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn \u00f6demedi\u011fin maliyet,<br \/>\nyar\u0131n daha sert \u015fekilde geri d\u00f6ner.<\/p>\n<p><strong>SONU\u00c7: KR\u0130Z DE\u011e\u0130L, BA\u011eIMLILIK D\u00dcZEN\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Art\u0131k tabloyu ba\u015ftan sona kurduk:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Benzin 63 TL<\/li>\n<li>Motorin 74 TL<\/li>\n<li>\u0130ran\u2013\u0130srail gerilimi<\/li>\n<li>H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 riski<\/li>\n<li>Brent petrol bask\u0131s\u0131<\/li>\n<li>Kur \u015foku<\/li>\n<li>E\u015fel mobil m\u00fcdahalesi<\/li>\n<li>\u00dcretim maliyetinin y\u00fckselmesi<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u015eimdi bu par\u00e7alar\u0131 birle\u015ftirdi\u011finde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan \u015fey basit bir \u201cekonomik kriz\u201d de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu daha derin bir \u015feydir.<\/p>\n<p>Dies ist eine <strong>yap\u0131sal ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k d\u00fczenidir.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>1. BU S\u0130STEMDE F\u0130YAT BEL\u0130RLENMEZ, OLU\u015eUR<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Klasik ekonomi sana \u015funu s\u00f6yler:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFiyatlar i\u00e7eride belirlenir.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Ama T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de durum farkl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de fiyat:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de ba\u015flar<\/li>\n<li>Brent petrol ile \u015fekillenir<\/li>\n<li>Kur ile b\u00fcy\u00fcr<\/li>\n<li>Vergiyle ayarlan\u0131r<\/li>\n<li>Pompada g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Yani fiyat bir karar de\u011fil,<br \/>\n<strong>bir zincirin sonucudur.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bu zincirin hi\u00e7bir halkas\u0131 tam anlam\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kontrol\u00fcnde de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. ENERJ\u0130 BA\u011eIMLILI\u011eI: S\u0130STEM\u0130N TEMEL\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fudur:<\/p>\n<p>Enerjiyi ithal eder.<\/p>\n<p>Was soll das bedeuten?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Fiyat\u0131 belirleyemez<\/li>\n<li>Sadece \u00f6der<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Petrol artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda se\u00e7enek yoktur.<\/p>\n<p>Ya \u00f6dersin,<br \/>\nya ekonomik faaliyet daral\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu y\u00fczden enerji ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sadece ekonomik bir konu de\u011fil,<br \/>\n<strong>stratejik bir zafiyettir.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>3. KUR: \u0130\u00c7ER\u0130DEK\u0130 EN B\u00dcY\u00dcK \u00c7ARPAN<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Petrol art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeterince a\u011f\u0131rd\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Ama T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de as\u0131l k\u0131r\u0131lma kurdur.<\/p>\n<p>Weil:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Enerji dolar ile al\u0131n\u0131r<\/li>\n<li>TL ile sat\u0131l\u0131r<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu \u015fu anlama gelir:<\/p>\n<p>Kur artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sadece maliyet artmaz,<br \/>\n<strong>t\u00fcm sistem yeniden fiyatlan\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bu y\u00fczden T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Petrol \u015foku \u2192 maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/li>\n<li>Kur \u015foku \u2192 maliyetin katlanmas\u0131<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>4. E\u015eEL MOB\u0130L: D\u00dcZEN\u0130 AYAKTA TUTMA \u00c7ABASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>E\u015fel mobil burada devreye girer.<\/p>\n<p>Ama art\u0131k net biliyoruz:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Bu bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm de\u011fil<\/li>\n<li>Bir dengeleme de\u011fil<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Diese hier:<\/p>\n<p>Sistemi ayakta tutmak i\u00e7in zaman\u0131 sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6ntemidir.<\/p>\n<p>Ama bu y\u00f6ntem kal\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>Weil:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Vergi sonsuz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclemez<\/li>\n<li>B\u00fct\u00e7e sonsuz a\u00e7\u0131k veremez<\/li>\n<li>Kur sonsuz bask\u0131lanamaz<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu y\u00fczden sistem bir noktada ger\u00e7e\u011fi kabul etmek zorunda kal\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>5. \u00dcRET\u0130M KR\u0130Z\u0130: EN G\u00d6R\u00dcNMEZ AMA EN TEHL\u0130KEL\u0130 SONU\u00c7<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bu fiyat yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n en a\u011f\u0131r sonucu \u00fcretimde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n<p>Motorin 74 TL ise:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Tar\u0131m maliyetlidir<\/li>\n<li>Sanayi pahal\u0131d\u0131r<\/li>\n<li>Lojistik zorla\u015f\u0131r<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ve bu \u015fu sonucu \u00fcretir:<\/p>\n<p>Ekonomi b\u00fcy\u00fcyemez, sadece d\u00f6ner.<\/p>\n<p>Bu \u00e7ok kritik.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de bug\u00fcn bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6r b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fcyor,<br \/>\n<strong>sadece ayakta kalmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bu da uzun vadede \u015funu \u00fcretir:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck verim<\/li>\n<li>D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck rekabet<\/li>\n<li>Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>6. EN TEHL\u0130KEL\u0130 NOKTA: NORMALLE\u015eME<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ama b\u00fct\u00fcn bunlardan daha kritik bir \u015fey var:<\/p>\n<p>Toplumsal e\u015fik.<\/p>\n<p>Bir toplum bu fiyatlara al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Zam sorgulanmaz<\/li>\n<li>Sistem tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaz<\/li>\n<li>Adaptasyon ba\u015flar<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ve bu noktada kriz:<\/p>\n<p>s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir hale gelir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu, sistemin en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu and\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>7. N\u0130HA\u0130 TE\u015eH\u0130S<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Art\u0131k net konu\u015fal\u0131m:<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ya\u015fanan:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Ge\u00e7ici bir dalgalanma de\u011fildir<\/li>\n<li>Basit bir ekonomik kriz de\u011fildir<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Diese hier:<\/p>\n<p>Enerjiye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131, kura hassas ve \u00fcretimi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir ekonominin<br \/>\nk\u00fcresel enerji d\u00fczeni i\u00e7inde ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 konumdur.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de insanlar h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u015f\u00f6yle diyor:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBenzin pahal\u0131.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Ama ger\u00e7ek \u015fudur:<\/p>\n<p>Sen benzine 63 TL \u00f6demiyorsun.<br \/>\nK\u00fcresel enerji sistemine, jeopolitik gerilime, kur k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131na<br \/>\nve ertelenmi\u015f maliyetlere para \u00f6d\u00fcyorsun.<\/p>\n<p>Ve daha \u00e7\u0131plak haliyle:<\/p>\n<p>Bu bir fiyat meselesi de\u011fil.<br \/>\nBu, bir sistem meselesi.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dies ist keine Frage des Preises. Es ist eine Frage des Systems.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":284186,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[286],"tags":[289],"class_list":{"0":"post-284185","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-yazarlar","8":"tag-manset"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/284185","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=284185"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/284185\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":284187,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/284185\/revisions\/284187"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/284186"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=284185"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=284185"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=284185"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}