![\"\"](\"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/sindirgi.jpg\")
Ben deprem uzman\u0131 de\u011filim. Ama bu b\u00f6lgenin insan\u0131y\u0131m. Son aylarda yer salland\u0131k\u00e7a, s\u00f6ylenti \u00e7o\u011fald\u0131k\u00e7a, herkes bir \u015fey s\u00f6ylerken net ve sakin bir a\u00e7\u0131klama bulamay\u0131nca oturup ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya karar verdim.<\/p>\n
Korkudan de\u011fil; belirsizlikten yoruluyor insan.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z sars\u0131nt\u0131lar, Bal\u0131kesir ve \u00f6zellikle S\u0131nd\u0131rg\u0131 \u00e7evresinde durup dururken ba\u015flamad\u0131. Resmi kay\u0131tlara bakt\u0131m: b\u00f6lgede sismik hareketlilik 2025 yaz\u0131ndan beri devam ediyor. \u00d6nce orta b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte depremler oldu, ard\u0131ndan aylar boyunca k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck\u2013orta sars\u0131nt\u0131lar s\u00fcrd\u00fc. 2026 Ocak sonunda ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki deprem de bu zincirin son halkalar\u0131ndan biri oldu.<\/p>\n
Yani tek bir olay ya\u015fam\u0131yoruz. Aylar \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde ilerleyen bir s\u00fcrecin i\u00e7indeyiz.<\/p>\n
Bu tabloya sismolojide bazen \u201cdeprem f\u0131rt\u0131nas\u0131\u201d<\/strong> deniyor. Yani tek bir b\u00fcy\u00fck ana depremden sonra gelen klasik art\u00e7\u0131lardan ziyade, ayn\u0131 b\u00f6lgede g\u00fcnler\u2013haftalar boyunca \u00e7ok say\u0131da k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ve orta b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte depremin k\u00fcmelenmesi. Fay\u0131n tek par\u00e7a de\u011fil, segmentlerden olu\u015ftu\u011fu yerlerde bu t\u00fcr k\u00fcmelenmeler s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bir par\u00e7a k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kom\u015fu par\u00e7alara stres aktar\u0131l\u0131yor; onlar da k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck k\u0131r\u0131lmalarla yan\u0131t veriyor. Fay sistemi adeta kendi i\u00e7inde denge ar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Bat\u0131 Anadolu jeolojik olarak \u201cgerilen\u201d<\/strong> bir b\u00f6lge. Afrika levhas\u0131 kuzeye itti, Anadolu blo\u011fu bat\u0131ya ka\u00e7t\u0131. Kabu\u011fun a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla b\u00f6lgede a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla normal faylanma olu\u015ftu. Bal\u0131kesir\u2013Simav hatt\u0131 da tam bu sistemin i\u00e7inde yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n Resmi kurumlar\u0131n verileri \u2014AFAD ile Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i \u00dcniversitesi Kandilli Rasathanesi ve Deprem Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc\u2014 depremlerin \u00e7o\u011funun 10\u201315 kilometre derinlikte ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu kritik bir bilgi. Bu derinlikler, tamamen kabuk i\u00e7i, tektonik k\u0131r\u0131lmalara i\u015faret ediyor. Yani y\u00fczeysel \u00e7\u00f6kmelerden ya da s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir do\u011fa olay\u0131ndan s\u00f6z etmiyoruz. Bildi\u011fimiz aktif faylar \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n Bir ba\u015fka \u00f6nemli nokta \u015fu: Bu b\u00f6lgedeki faylar tek par\u00e7a de\u011fil. Segmentlerden olu\u015fuyor. Bir par\u00e7a k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, kom\u015fu par\u00e7alara stres aktar\u0131l\u0131yor. Sismolojide buna Coulomb stres transferi deniyor. Son aylarda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz \u201cseri\u201d<\/strong> depremler b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bunun sonucu oldu. Kimi zaman klasik art\u00e7\u0131 gibi, kimi zaman ana depremi net se\u00e7ilemeyen k\u00fcmeler halinde ilerledi.<\/p>\n Bu noktada s\u0131k sorulan bir ba\u015fka soru da \u015fu: \u201cS\u0131nd\u0131rg\u0131\u2019da termal sular var; bunun depremle ilgisi olabilir mi?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n Termal sular\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 asl\u0131nda \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil. Fay zonlar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u2013\u00e7atlakl\u0131 yap\u0131lard\u0131r ve derinlerden gelen s\u0131cak sular i\u00e7in do\u011fal kanallar olu\u015fturur. Yani termal su \u00e7o\u011fu zaman fay\u0131n nedeni de\u011fil, sonucudur. Faylar suyu yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n Yeralt\u0131 sular\u0131 faydaki s\u00fcrt\u00fcnmeyi biraz azaltabilir ama depremi \u00fcretmez. Depremin as\u0131l nedeni yer kabu\u011funda biriken tektonik gerilimdir. Su sadece zaten haz\u0131r olan bir sistemi hassasla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. Gelelim herkesin sordu\u011fu soruya:<\/p>\n Bunlar b\u00fcy\u00fck bir depremin habercisi mi?<\/p>\n Ara\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131k\u00e7a \u015funu net g\u00f6rd\u00fcm: Bilim b\u00f6yle kesin konu\u015fmuyor.<\/p>\n Yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki depremler, faylarda y\u0131llar boyunca biriken enerjinin yaln\u0131zca k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc bo\u015faltt\u0131. \u00c7o\u011fu zaman bu t\u00fcr s\u00fcre\u00e7ler yerel rahatlama yaratt\u0131. Bug\u00fcn kamuya a\u00e7\u0131k verilerle \u201c\u015furada b\u00fcy\u00fck deprem olacak\u201d<\/strong> demek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil.<\/p>\n \u015eu anda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm tablo \u015fu.<\/p>\n 2025\u2019te ba\u015flayan k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan sistem h\u00e2l\u00e2 kendi i\u00e7inde denge kurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ve orta b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte depremlerle stres yeniden da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 aylarca s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bat\u0131 Anadolu\u2019da daha \u00f6nce ya\u015fanan pek \u00e7ok deprem dizisi de b\u00f6yle ilerledi.<\/p>\n Gelece\u011fe dair bilimsel olarak s\u00f6ylenebilecekler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ama net:<\/p>\n Bir:<\/strong> Bal\u0131kesir ve \u00e7evresi aktif faylar\u0131n bulundu\u011fu bir b\u00f6lge. Bu de\u011fi\u015fmeyecek. O y\u00fczden bana g\u00f6re yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken kehanet \u00fcretmek de\u011fil.<\/p>\n Yap\u0131 stokunu ciddiyetle sorgulamak. Hasarl\u0131 binalardan uzak durmak. Evde basit sabitlemeleri yapmak. Aile i\u00e7inde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir deprem plan\u0131 konu\u015fmak.<\/p>\n Yer hareket etti \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu co\u011frafya hareketli.<\/p>\n Die Wissenschaft lehrt mich, auf der Grundlage von Wissen statt auf der Grundlage von Angst zu handeln, auf Daten statt auf Ger\u00fcchte zu achten und vorbereitet zu sein, statt in Panik zu geraten.<\/p>\n Benim ara\u015ft\u0131rmadan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u00f6zet bu.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Die Wissenschaft lehrt mich, auf der Grundlage von Wissen statt auf der Grundlage von Angst zu handeln, auf Daten statt auf Ger\u00fcchte zu achten und vorbereitet zu sein, statt in Panik zu geraten.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":282210,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[286],"tags":[289],"class_list":{"0":"post-282209","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-yazarlar","8":"tag-manset"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282209","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/23"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=282209"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282209\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":282211,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282209\/revisions\/282211"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/282210"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=282209"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=282209"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/halkweb.com.tr\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=282209"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Neden burada?<\/h3>\n
\n(Fay y\u00fczeylerini birbirine s\u00fcrt\u00fcnen iki b\u00fcy\u00fck ta\u015f gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn; yeralt\u0131 suyu araya girince ya\u011f gibi davran\u0131r, itmez ama kaymay\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r.)<\/p>\n
\nAma i\u015fin bir de \u015fu taraf\u0131 var; yak\u0131n \u00e7evrede uzun s\u00fcredir hareket etmeyen, yani gerilim biriktiren \u201ckilitli\u201d<\/strong> bir fay par\u00e7as\u0131 bulunuyorsa, bu orta b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckteki depremler oradaki dengeyi biraz bozabilir. Yani o fay\u0131n zaten bir g\u00fcn k\u0131r\u0131lacak olan b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc, takvim olarak az da olsa \u00f6ne \u00e7ekme ihtimali do\u011fabilir. Bunun olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlayabilmek i\u00e7in GPS \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmleri, uydu deformasyon verileri ve ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 stres modelleri gerekir.<\/p>\n
\n\u0130ki:<\/strong> Bir s\u00fcre daha art\u00e7\u0131 ve benzeri sars\u0131nt\u0131lar g\u00f6rmek \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmayacak.
\n\u00dc\u00e7:<\/strong> Zaman ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck vererek deprem tahmini yapmak bug\u00fcn i\u00e7in m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil.<\/p>\n